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National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services • • Mission What Does NCEP Do? Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services • • Mission What Does NCEP Do? Seamless Suite of Products and Services Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made • Computing Capability • Student Opportunities 2

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Space Environment Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Total FTE: 430 161 Contractors/47 Visitors Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. 3

What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • • Solar Monitoring, What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • • Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings ? Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ? International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ? Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ? Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 4

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services To Serve Diverse The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base Observe e. g. , National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … Products & Forecast Services Process Central Guidance Local Offices NCEP Respond & Feedback IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback 5

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Service Center Perspective Forecast NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Warnings & Alert Coordination HPC Days Hours SPC OPC AWC TPC SEC Week 2 Hazards Assessment 6 -10 Day Forecast NDFD, Days 4 -7 Winter Weather Desk Days 1 -3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 3 • • Minutes 6 Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Reservoir Control Agriculture Hydropower Fire Weather Protection of Life & Property Benefits Transportation Watches Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Space Operation Forecasts CPC 2 Week Flood Mitigation & Navigation Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Climate/Weather Linkage Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Ocean Model North American Forecast Hours Hurricane Model Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS 7 Environment State/Local Planning Commerce Health Energy Ecosystem Recreation Reservoir Control Agriculture Hydropower Fire Weather Protection of Life & Property Benefits Transportation Watches Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week Space Operation Forecasts 2 Week Flood Mitigation & Navigation Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Guidance

2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Ensemble Hurricane NAEFS Global Data Assimilation Global 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Ensemble Hurricane NAEFS Global Data Assimilation Global GFDL SREF GFS Climate N D A S CFS MOM 3 WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM Regional NAM – WRF NMM HYCOM Ocean Dispersion Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model Forecas t Rapid Update Cycle 8 L D A S

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models • Atmosphere Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models • Atmosphere • Ocean • Cryosphere • Land • Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems • Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

Computing Capability Primary Weather $13. 9 M Primary Climate Backup $5. 3 M $7. Computing Capability Primary Weather $13. 9 M Primary Climate Backup $5. 3 M $7. 2 M Total: $26. 4 M Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 1. 485 Trillion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5. 7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Backup located in Fairmont, WV • 3 x upgrade scheduled to be operational January, 2007 10

Student Employment Programs at NOAA • Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP) – Student Career Student Employment Programs at NOAA • Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP) – Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school. – Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration. 11

Student Employment Programs at NOAA • Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program – Designed Student Employment Programs at NOAA • Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program – Designed to increase undergraduate training in oceanic and atmospheric science, research, technology and education, recruit and prepare students for with public service careers – $8 K of academic assistance per school year – 10 week paid ($650/week) internship during summer between junior and senior year – Housing subsidy during internship – Contact [email protected] orau. gov or noaa. education @noaa. gov • NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program – Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school. • For more information on all NOAA programs – http: //www. weather. gov/eeo/Student. Research. Opportunities. htm 12

NCEP Employment Summary • Civil Service Positions – 430 civil servant positions – Average NCEP Employment Summary • Civil Service Positions – 430 civil servant positions – Average 32 hires/year at all levels – 2 -4 entry-level hires/year • Contract Positions – Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years) – Currently have 161 contractors – Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year • Student Programs – Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP) http: //www. weather. gov/eeo/Student. Research. Opportunities. htm – 16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http: //epp. noaa. gov/ , http: //www. oesd. noaa. gov/Hollings_info. html ) 13

Summary • NCEP is – Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from Summary • NCEP is – Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” – Ready to work with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e. g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, …); success is based on interdisciplinary approach – A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery – A challenging place to work from both an applied research and operational perspective 14

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268, 762 RSF NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268, 762 RSF • Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research and satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Groundbreaking occurred 13 March 2006 Revised Construction Schedule Baseline 10/18/05 FY 07 Pres. Budget Construction Start 26 -June-06 Dec 06 Move Start 24 -Sep-07 Feb 08 Move Complete 01 -Feb-08 Oct 08 15

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction First New UMD Building NORTH 16 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction First New UMD Building NORTH 16