National Bank of Abu Dhabi Oil UAE

National Bank of Abu Dhabi Oil & UAE Outlook Best Bank in UAE by Economic Outlook January 2011 Dr. Gıyas Gökkent Group Chief Economist Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 1

National Bank of Abu Dhabi Oil & UAE Outlook Dubai Abu Dhabi Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared and issued by the National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) on the basis of publicly available information and other sources considered reliable. This presentation is not to be construed as an offer to buy, or sell securities. While utmost care has been taken to ensure that the information provided is accurate and correct, neither NBAD, nor any of its employees shall, in any way, be responsible for the contents. NBAD is licensed by the UAE Central Bank. Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2

Oil Price WTI Crude Oil Price US Imported Crude Oil Price • EIA projects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average US$ 93 per barrel in 2011 • Inflation adjusted oil price is at elevated levels Source: EIA Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 3

Oil Production World Crude Oil & Liquid Fuels Production Growth World Liquid Fuels Production • Most of the oil output growth is expected to come from OPEC in 2011 -12; output from the North Sea is in decline • Increases in non-OPEC oil production is expected to be concentrated in China, Brazil, and Canada Source: EIA Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 4

Oil Consumption World Liquid Fuels Consumption • Non-OECD countries are expected to account for all of the world’s growth in 2011 -12, with most due to China, Middle East, and Brazil • In OECD, N. American use will rise, but be offset by falls in OECD Europe & Asia Source: EIA Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 5

Oil Inventory OECD Commercial Oil Stocks • On-shore commercial oil inventories in the OECD countries remained high, but floating oil storage fell sharply in 2010. EIA expects OECD oil inventories to decline in 2011 -12 Source: EIA Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 6

OPEC Crude Oil & Liquid Fuels Supply (mn bpd) OPEC Surplus Oil Production Capacity (mn bpd) Source: EIA • OPEC non-crude petroleum liquids -not subject to quotas – to rise by 0. 7 mn bpd and by 0. 4 mn bpd in 2011 -12 Source: EIA • OPEC crude output to rise 0. 5 & 1. 1 mn bpd in 2011 -12 • OPEC crude oil capacity to rise from 34. 1 mn bbl/d in 2010 to 35. 2 mn bpd in 2012 Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 7

United Arab Emirates Oil Price & Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate Value of Oil & Related Exports (US$ billion) • UAE crude oil output was unchanged in 2010 • Oil and related exports estimated at US$ 87 bn in 2011 and US$ 101 bn in 2012 Source: EIA, NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 8

United Arab Emirates Gross Domestic Product Consolidated Budget • Nominal GDP forecast to rise to US$ 315 bn by 2012 • Fiscal surpluses estimated at ~3% of GDP in 2011 -2012 Source: NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 9

Debt Liabilities to BIS Reporting Banks + Int’l. Debt Securities • Gross external debt ~ US$ 184 billion at end-June 2010 Source: BIS Dubai Corporate Debt Service • US$ 15. 9 billion in Dubai corporate (excluding banks) debt service in 2011 Source: Reuters Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 10

Risk Perception 5 Year CDS Spreads Source: Bloomberg Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 11

UAE Banking Sector Asset Growth • Abu Dhabi based banks’ year-on-year asset growth stood at 11. 8% at end-2010 Q 3 Source: CB, NBAD Banking Sector Loan Growth • Abu Dhabi based banks’ year-on-year loan growth stood at 7. 4% at end-2010 Q 3 Source: CB, NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 12

UAE Banking Sector Provisions (% of Gross Loans) • Sector NPLs at ~5% of loans mirrored by rise in provisions Source: CB, NBAD Banking Sector Liquidity • Gross LTD ~ 104% at end- November, down from 112. 4% in September 2008 Source: CB, NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 13

Real Estate Sector Dubai Apartment Prices Source: NBAD • Average Dubai apartment prices down by ~20% in 2010, rents down ~10% Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 14

Inflation Annual Inflation Rate • UAE inflation at 1. 7% y-o-y in 2010 Source: CB, NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 15

Summary Outlook Selected Indicators Source: NBAD Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2010 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 16

Best Corporate Governance by Best Bank in UAE (winner - 3 times) by Ranked among the 50 safest banks by Global Finance Retail Bank of the Year by Arabian Business ‘Super Brand’ Excellence in branding Best local bank in UAE by THANK YOU Emiratization Award by Strategic Banking Web Award by Deal of the Year by Euromoney’s magazine Best Investor Relations company in UAE Best Personal Loan in the Middle East by Among the world’s 50 safest banks in 2009 (Global Finance) I Official bank of the 2010 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 17