NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535, 000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1. 2170 M) Forecast 2013 = 650, 000 SF + 22% Forecast 2014 = 845, 000 SF + 30%
CORE LOGIC IN 2012: • Total Homes Sales Increased 6% • Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11% • REO Sales Declined 20% (3 rd consecutive decline) • Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7. 4% 6. 9% • Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6. 3% (largest since 2006)
GLAR MLS 2012 • Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q 3 2011) Houses Sold on MLS ‘ 06 ‘ 07 ‘ 08 vs. ’ 11 15, 181 14, 748 11, 369 ‘ 09 ‘ 10 ‘ 11 11, 648 11, 442 10, 974 12, 724 ‘ 12 +15. 9% Median Sales Price ‘ 06 ‘ 07 vs. ’ 11 138. 5 139. 0 • ‘ 08 ‘ 09 ‘ 10 134. 9 132. 0 138. 0 ‘ 11 134. 1 140. 0 ‘ 12 +4. 3% Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in ’ 12 vs. ‘ 11
PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA Birmingham, AL Charlotte, NC Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Dayton, OH Houston, TX Indianapolis, IN Knoxville, TN Memphis, TN National Rank 222 201 213 265 186 212 30 149 156 206 1 -yr -1. 3% -0. 8% -1. 0% -2. 2% -0. 3% -1. 0% 3. 4% 0. 3% 0. 1% -1. 0% Qtr. -0. 2 0. 4 -0. 5 -0. 3 0. 1 0. 9 0. 2 0. 6 -0. 1 Louisville, KY 133 0. 6% 0. 4 -2. 8% Oklahoma City Portland, OR Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Seattle, WA 64 66 181 230 63 2. 0% -0. 2% -1. 5% 2. 0% 0. 7 1. 8 1. 4 2. 2% -21. 0% -6. 6% -18. 1% -23. 1% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency 5 -yr -8. 8% -12. 9% -8. 3% -13. 3% -6. 9% -9. 9% 5. 5% -3. 9% -5. 5% -12. 1%
TOP 20 MSA LARGEST 5 -YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES Las Vegas, NV Vallejo, CA Stockton, CA Daytona Beach, FL Reno, NV Orlando, FL Ocala, FL Salvias, CA Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Riverside – San Bernadine, CA Port St. Lucie, FL Yuba City, CA Naples – Marco Island, FL Visalia, CA Ft. Lauderdale, FL Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL Fresno, CA Phoenix, AZ Bradenton – Sarasota, FL West Palm Beach, FL Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL -54. 3% -45. 6% -44. 9% -44. 3% -44. 0% -42. 8% -42. 7% -41. 6% -41. 3% -40. 9% -40. 7% -40. 1% -39. 8% -39. 0% -38. 8% -38. 5% -38. 4% -38. 0% -37. 8% Louisville, KY -2. 8% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Residential Building Permits 2012 Jefferson Oldham Shelby Spencer Bullitt Clark Floyd Harrison 8 -County Total Note: Nelson Hardin 2012 1003 156 136 47 292 1634 2011 671 112 73 46 213 1115 349 169 96 614 227 98 64 389 +53. 7 72. 4 50. 0 +57. 8% 2, 248 1504 +49. 5% 114 254 122 210 -6. 6% +21% Source: The Market Edge ’ 12 vs ’ 11 +49. 4 39. 3 86. 3 2. 2 37. 1 +46. 5%
Residential Building Permit 2012 Market Comparison %CHANGE 2012 vs. 2011 42. 5% MARKET Louisville KY Lexington Evansville KY IN 33. 1% 24. 3% Asheville Charlotte Fayetteville Hickory Triad Raleigh Upstate Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities. TN NC NC TN TN 21. 5% 30. 4% ------12. 3% 3. 2% 31. 8% 32. 1% 27. 7% 23. 9% Source: The Market Edge -4. 5%
Improving Markets Index 259 242 201 125 98 76 12 23 30 41 99 101 100 99 80 84 80 103
5294 5137 5015 4790 4348 Permits 4225 3749 3297
5294 5137 5015 4790 4348 Permits 4225 3749 3297
97. 5% 59. 6% 52. 6% 49. 5% 48. 8% 38. 6% 34. 2% 29. 9% 13. 2% -1. 2% -2. 4% -11. 7% -18% -22. 5% -27. 7% J 11 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 12 Source: local government permitting departments S O N D J 13 F
NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTS WHAT HOME BUYERS REALLY WANT The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers 47% want three bedrooms 32% want four bedrooms 57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home 31% prefer two stories Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement 48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2 nd floor 70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1 st floor Buyers focus on “Quality & Appearance” where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc. while… When looking at appliances, the focus is on “Quality & Brand” Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• In the Kitchen: A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers • In the Bathroom: An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• When Rating Windows: 67% want energy star rated windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass • Decorative Features: 88% Want ceiling fans 60% Want built-in shelving and ceiling crown molding Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Laundry Room: 57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it 36% Find it desirable • Garage Storage: 32% Rate it essential 54% Desirable Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features: 90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable 83% Patio 80% Front porch • Master Bath Location: 45% Essential 36% Desirable Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities • 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today • 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• Location of choice for new home buyers: Central City – 8 % Close-in Suburbs – 30% Outlying Suburb – 38% Rural Area – 27 % and small towns • Community features to seriously influence the buying decision: Walking/Jogging Trails – 60% Park Area - 54% Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50% Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
• 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors ‒ “More Professional & Credible” ‒ “Provide better quality work and craftmanship” ‒ “Provide better service levels” ‒ “More Reliable” Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor: 1. “Reputation for quality construction” 2. “Reputation for completing projects on budget” Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Type of Home Preferred (Percent of Respondents) Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers (Percent of Respondents) 36% 58% 57% 28% 36% 63% 53% 37% 41% 49% 51% 39% 35% 54% 40% 48% 32% 36% 31% 54% 49% 54% Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) 41% 49% 56% 27% 26% 54% 29% 49% 22% 55% 51% 21% 45% 17% 39% 21% 6% 31% 6% 27% Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Accessibility Features - History (Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012 and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 ) 2004 2007 2012 A full bath on the main level 75 74 81 Non-slip floor surfaces 62 53 63 An entrance without steps 42 38 50 Bathroom aids, such as grab bars or seating in shower 40 35 46 Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division (Percent of Respondents ) Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers to Choose a Community (Percent of Respondents ) Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History (Percent of Respondents ) 2004 2007 2012 Walking/jogging trails 51 49 60 Park area 52 43 54 Outdoor swimming pool 36 36 50 Lake 32 33 45 Exercise room 30 27 39 Convenience Store n/a 28 32 Drug Store n/a 28 32 Playgrounds 26 22 31 Public transportation 34 24 29 Clubhouse 21 21 26 Security guard at gate 30 17 25 Card-operated gate, no guard 16 14 19 Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont. (Percent of Respondents ) 2004 2007 2012 Tennis courts 10 10 17 Arts and Crafts n/a 7 14 Basketball courts 9 8 13 Business center 17 8 13 Billiard room 9 6 12 Daycare center 9 8 9 Baseball/ softball field 8 6 9 Soccer field 5 4 6 Racquetball courts 4 3 6 Equestrian facilities n/a 3 5 Other 11 13 6 Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY
61% Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants 78% Americans consider being within 30 -minutes of work important in choosing where to live. 88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house. Important Choice Decisions 77% Sidewalks and places to take a walk 75% High quality public schools Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Importance of Community Characteristics Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Preferred Versus Actual Community Type 8% 5% 11% 19% 28% 26% 12% 19% 18% 14% 22% 16% Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
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