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Multimodal Study on Freight Transportation in Québec Transportation Border Working Group Spring 2014 Meeting Multimodal Study on Freight Transportation in Québec Transportation Border Working Group Spring 2014 Meeting Buffalo, NY April 8, 2014 Claude Sirois

Presentation Overview • Objective, structure and scope of the study • Overview of the Presentation Overview • Objective, structure and scope of the study • Overview of the database • Profile of freight transportation in Québec • Assessment of intermodality potential, methodology and observations • Conclusion 2

Objective of the study • Support Sustainable Mobility Regional Plans • Characterize current and Objective of the study • Support Sustainable Mobility Regional Plans • Characterize current and future (2026) supply and demand for freight transportation for all modes • Develop and apply a methodology to assess Intermodality Potential • Three scales of analysis – Québec – Major transportation corridors (11) – Regions (16) 3

Structure of the study Block 1 Filling the gaps Block 2 Exploit existing data Structure of the study Block 1 Filling the gaps Block 2 Exploit existing data available in studies, DB, etc. Targeted interviews Long/short (MTL only) distance trucking Road performance Carriers Network and equipment managers As Marine Air Rail Integration of Block 2 Into Block 1 Shippers MTQ staff se ss Fo m re en c a po t of st 20 te int 26 nt er ial m od a Block 3 lit y Current and future (2026) multimodal transportation profile and assessment of Intermodality potential Québec 11 corridors 16 regions 4

Scope and Limitations of the Study • Aggregation of data by region • MTQ Scope and Limitations of the Study • Aggregation of data by region • MTQ provincial network • Interregional freight movements – Trucking : Interurban/interregional movements (+ 80 km) • Different data sources and periods (2006 -2010) • Confidentiality of some information – Rail/Air companies – Shippers 5

Overview of the database Physical characteristics Capacity/Demand Network Performance (index) GIS TRANSCAD Road data Overview of the database Physical characteristics Capacity/Demand Network Performance (index) GIS TRANSCAD Road data (MTQ/CG studies) Forecast 2026 (O/D Survey + other) Tabular Data EXCEL SOURCES Road Performance Phys. Char. AADT, AADTT, CDI, TW-CDI +/- 2008 / Forecast 2026 290 000 truck movements Type of Commodities Weight/Volume Many other informations TRANSCAD NRS 99 / 06 -07 (MTQ/TC) Forecast 2026 (IHS GI/MTO) POWER PIVOT SOURCES Trucking Truck/Tonnage Flows O/D truck movements (Desire Lines) Physical characteristics Current/future tonnages Commodities (incomplete) Network Performance TRANSCAD Rail Companies (interviews) CG Studies Forecast 2026 (IHS GI) Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN) EXCEL SOURCES Rail Physical characteristics Demand (flows) Bottlenecks/issues on the network

Overview of the database O/D Marine Database - Tonnages - Commodities - Ports, country, Overview of the database O/D Marine Database - Tonnages - Commodities - Ports, country, regions TRANSCAD Shipping in Canada 2000 -2011 (Stat. Can) Other Marine Data (TC) Forecast (IHS GI) Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN) Tabular Data POWER PIVOT SOURCES Marine Tonnages / Port Flows between ports # of Aircraft Movements Capacity/Link TRANSCAD Aircraft Movements (TC) Air Link Capacities (CFG) Demand (RTG) International Airports only Forecast (TC : 2007) EXCEL SOURCES Air Capacity (Flows) Airplane Mov. / Airport GIS

Profile of Québec – Geographic Scope • 11 800 km of roads • 7 Profile of Québec – Geographic Scope • 11 800 km of roads • 7 border crossings – 4 in QC, 3 in ON • • • 6 200 km of railways 6 intermodal terminals 21 railways 31 ports 42 airports 8

Profile of Québec – Tonnages with an origin or a destination in Québec Ton-kilometre Profile of Québec – Tonnages with an origin or a destination in Québec Ton-kilometre on Québec’s road and rail networks Marine Rail Road Air - 274 000 tonnes (0, 1%) *Road mode doesn’t include truck movements under 80 km 9

Profile of Québec – Modal Flows 10 Profile of Québec – Modal Flows 10

Profile of Québec – Modal Flows in corridors 11 Profile of Québec – Modal Flows in corridors 11

Profile of Québec – Truck flows through border 12 Profile of Québec – Truck flows through border 12

Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 between Québec and New York 13

Profile of Québec – Empty trucks • % of empty trucks according to the Profile of Québec – Empty trucks • % of empty trucks according to the distance Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 between Québec and Maine 14

Profile of Québec – Air links capacity 15 Profile of Québec – Air links capacity 15

Profile of Québec – Supply Chains • Significant presence of supply chains based on Profile of Québec – Supply Chains • Significant presence of supply chains based on natural resources / transformed products from natural resources • Commodity supply chains usually favor 1 or 2 modes Marine Rail Road 40 % 50 % 66 % Minerals Manufactured and Miscellaneous goods 49 % 40 % Agriculture and Food products 61 % Fuel and Basic chemicals 74 % Pulp and Paper products 16

Profile of Québec – Modal shares • Modal shares at the Québec / U. Profile of Québec – Modal shares • Modal shares at the Québec / U. S. States Border • Québec / NY+VT+ME globally : Rail 47 % / Road 53 % 57 % 43 % 20 % 44 % 80 % Québec – New York Québec – Vermont 56 % Rail Road Québec – Maine 17

Profile of Québec – Forecast 2026 Annual growth rates • Development of mining projects Profile of Québec – Forecast 2026 Annual growth rates • Development of mining projects in Northern Québec has an important impact on rail and marine forecasts for 2026 Trucking Rail Marine Air Annual growth rates : Trucking : Number of movements 2006 - 2026 Rail : Ton-kilometre 2010 - 2026 Marine : Handled tonnages 2010 - 2026 Air : Handled tonnages at three international airports 2007 - 2026 18

Profile of Québec – Major Constraints • Road congestion on the Island of Montréal Profile of Québec – Major Constraints • Road congestion on the Island of Montréal • Utilization rates on rail lines (passengers vs freight trains) • Handling capacity for containers at the Port of Montréal • Increase of air cargo 19

Intermodality Potential – Methodology • National Roadside Survey 2006 -2007 • Filtering data according Intermodality Potential – Methodology • National Roadside Survey 2006 -2007 • Filtering data according to movement features • Focus on movements which have Québec as an origin or a destination • Detailed analysis of flows with an important potential 20

Intermodality Potential – Analysis Aggregated flows by region with an Intermodality potential • 17 Intermodality Potential – Analysis Aggregated flows by region with an Intermodality potential • 17 flows = 17 440 truck movements which represent 6% of all moves (291 200) and 26% of total km travelled • No flows between 2 Québec regions • Montréal, Montérégie and Québec City represent 75% of the movements with intermodality potential 21

Intermodality Potential – Observations • Detailed qualitative analysis of the 17 flows (step 5) Intermodality Potential – Observations • Detailed qualitative analysis of the 17 flows (step 5) : – Precise O/Ds, commodities, transportation equipments, etc. • Identification of many constraints to intermodality : – Multiple precise O/Ds – Consolidation of goods supplied by competitors – Short distances – Irregular flows – Higher delays/cost compared to trucking – Specialized equipment non-available 22

Intermodality Potential – Observations Additional observations… • RAIL : Best opportunities are located where Intermodality Potential – Observations Additional observations… • RAIL : Best opportunities are located where rail intermodal options already exist (ex. between Montréal and U. S. ). Non-existence of intermodal equipments doesn’t seem to be a frequent constraint • MARINE : No line services, insufficient volumes, closure of the St. Lawrence Seaway during 3 months (Ontario and Midwest) and longer marine distance (U. S. East Coast) • TRUCKING : Choice of trucking often justified by its lower cost, more appropriate logistics, flexibility (last minute delivery, JIT, no need for consolidation) 23

Intermodality Potential – Observations • Global incentives might increase intermodality, however, only a low Intermodality Potential – Observations • Global incentives might increase intermodality, however, only a low proportion of movements have the features associated with those types of supply chains • Using a mode or another is an individual decision. The result of this analysis doesn’t mean there’s no opportunity to shift from the road mode to another one, even between 2 regions in Québec 24

Thank you for your attention! Questions or comments? Claude Sirois claude. sirois@mtq. gouv. qc. Thank you for your attention! Questions or comments? Claude Sirois claude. [email protected] gouv. qc. ca (418) 643 -1772 www. mtq. gouv. qc. ca 25

Additional slides 26 Additional slides 26

Overview of the database Data Sources Tabular information Multimodal Mapping Road Performance Excel spreadsheet Overview of the database Data Sources Tabular information Multimodal Mapping Road Performance Excel spreadsheet Mapping Trucking Analytical tool (Power Pivot) Mapping (flows) Rail Excel spreadsheet Mapping Marine Analytical tool (Power Pivot) Mapping (flows) Air Excel spreadsheet Mapping

Overview of the database – Road Performance Current data • +/- 2008 • Updated Overview of the database – Road Performance Current data • +/- 2008 • Updated yearly Forecast • 2026 • Update TBD

Overview of the database - Trucking Current data • 2006 -2007 • Update TBD Overview of the database - Trucking Current data • 2006 -2007 • Update TBD Forecast • 2016, 2026 • Update TBD

Overview of the database - Rail Current data • 2010 • Update TBD Forecast Overview of the database - Rail Current data • 2010 • Update TBD Forecast • 2026 • Update TBD

Overview of the database - Marine Current data • 2000 - 2011 • Updated Overview of the database - Marine Current data • 2000 - 2011 • Updated yearly Forecast • 2026 (base year 2010) • Update TBD

Overview of the database - Aircraft Movements • 2006 - 2010 • Yearly update Overview of the database - Aircraft Movements • 2006 - 2010 • Yearly update possible Cargo Capacity • Week of 09/2011 • Ponctual update possible Airport Data • Current : 2007 • TC ceased to do the forecast

Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 between Québec and Vermont 33

Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 between Québec and Maine 34

Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 Profile of Québec – Desire Lines Truck movements during a week in 2006 -2007 between Québec and Michigan 35