Module 8 CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND PREVENTION Giovanni Marizza

Module 8 CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND PREVENTION Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 13 May 2014, 15. 00 -19. 00

Summary: -Module Program, -Basic Definitions, -Tipology of crises, -Examples of crises

Summary: -Module Program, -Basic Definitions, -Tipology of crises, -Examples of crises Aim: finding Lessons Learned

Summary: -Module Program, -Basic Definitions, -Tipology of crises, -Examples of crises For each crisis: Historical framework!

Module Program: § § No visits No references Conceptual context: 13 May Prevention and management of natural disasters: 14 May § Management of human-made crises: 19, 20 21, 26 May § Assessment in proficiency: 3 June (individual work)

“Remember, gentlemen, next week no crises at all: my agenda is completely full of commitments” (Henry Kissinger)

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”)

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”) § Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind

§ “Climate change is a silent human crisis” (Kofi Annan, President of Global Humanitarian Forum) § “This is not only a financial crisis; it's a human crisis as well” (Bob Zoellik, President of the World Bank)

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”) § Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind § Humanitarian crisis: large masses of poor people in danger

Examples of humanitarian crises: § Ireland, 1815 § Great Famine, Ireland (1845 -1849) mushroom – potatoes – 1 million victims –emigration – 2 million people in USA § Boat people, Vietnam (1975 -1979, 19881990) § Darfur, Sudan (last 10 years)

differences: Crisis: short/medium/long, wide Emergency: short, local Pathology: extremely long / forever

Example of emergency Rifiuti a Napoli

Example of crisis USA 1929

Example of pathology (1) Traffico a roma

Example of pathology (2) Palestinian Refugee Camps

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”) § Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind § Normally: tension, crisis, stabilisation § Necessity of preventing, managing § In a crisis everything becomes great (joy, pain, efforts, fatigue, creativity, …) § Presence of opportunities

CRISIS DANGER OPPORTUNITY

From Danger to Opportunity The best historical example: Jewish people § WW 1: “Jewish Brigade”, Balfour Declaration, creation of a “foyer” in Palestine § WW 2: shoah, creation of the Jewish State § Arab-Israeli wars: territorial gains

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”) § Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind § Humanitarian crisis: large masses of poor peolpe in danger § Crisis prevention: doing something in order to avoid a crisis

Basic Definitions: § Crisis: passage from one situation to a different one (opposite of “routine”) § Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind § Humanitarian crisis: large masses of poor peolpe in danger § Crisis prevention: doing something in order to avoid a crisis § Crisis management: reducing negative consequences (“consequence management”)

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts Particular aspect of Crisis Management: “Casus Belli” (inventing a reason for a war) [next 20 May]

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts local / world short / long occupation / liberation defensive / aggressive conventional / nuclear response / preventive independence / civil war …. .

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts local / world short / long occupation / liberation defensive / aggressive conventional / nuclear response / preventive independence / civil war …. . Today: MOOTW, PK, PEnforcing, NBuilding, S&R, …

MILITARY SUPPORT TO CIVIL IMPLEMENTATION MILITARY OPERATIONS CIVILIAN CRISIS STABILISATION LIFE SAVING LIFE SUPPORT UNHCR ICRC UNICEF WHO FAO ECONOMIC & SOCIAL UNESCO, WB IMF UNESCO WB, IMF, …

CRISIS RESPONSE OPERATIONS CIVIL ACTIVITY LEVEL MILITARY TIME

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks

Terrorist attacks (bombing events) § § New York, 11 September 2001 Madrid, 11 March 2004 London, 7 July 2005 Israel wall

New York, 11 September 2001 2. 974 victims + 24 missing + 19 Controversial Crisis Management: -GWOT -Afghanistan -Iraq 911 in Europe?

Madrid, 11 March 2004 191 victims 2. 057 wounded WRONG CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Atocha: a wrong Crisis Management § 10 March 2004: electoral campaign, Mr Aznar is sure to be confirmed § 11 March, 07. 39: 4 explosions § 08. 43: field hospital established § 09. 48: Mo. I on the spot § 10. 43: mobile telephon net collapsed § 14. 00: “ETA is guilty” § 17. 28: MFA: letter to the Ambassadors: “ETA is responsible!” § 12 March: ETA? No: AQ! § 13 March: Mr. Zapatero wins, SP troops out of Iraq

Lessons learned: § Be always ready to help (Field Hospitals, …) § Importance of mobile phone net § Terrorist attacks can influence internal, external policy, Geopolitics

Another example: § 2008: new electoral campaign. Zapatero: “I will win if the % will be more than 75%” § 7 March: ETA kills Matias Carrasco, PSOE § Carrasco’s daughter on TV: “The best way to honor my father: please vote!” § 9 March: % over 75%, Zapatero wins again § 2004, 2008 terrorists have influenced the results of the elections in SP.

London, 7 July 2005 52 victims 700 wounded EXCELLENT CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Israel wall (apartheid wall, security wall, the Fence, …)

Terrorist attacks (hostage kidnapping events) § Munich, Olympic Games 1972 (Black September) § Entebbe airport, 1976 (Baader Meinhoff, PLO, …Barak*, Netanyahu) * Begin

http: //ukinitaly. fco. gov. uk/it/ “ 31 October 1946… a terroristic attack…”

Terrorist attacks (hostage kidnapping events) § Munich, Olympic Games 1972 (Black September) § Entebbe airport, 1976 (Baader Meinhoff, PLO, …Barak, Netanyahu) § Tehran US embassy, 1979 -80 (disaster) § Budyonnovsk hospital, 1995 (2. 000 hostages, Chernomyrdin-Basayev) § Lima, JP embassy, 1997 (tupamaros) § Moscow, Dubrovka theater, 2002 (700, gas) § Beslan, school, 2004 (1. 200, NL: EU presidency asking explanations to the victims)

…some lessons/considerations: § If GE Special Forces fail (Fuerstenfeldbruck), Mossad don’t § Worst case: US rescue attempt in Iran (C 130+helo+sandstorm… 444 days) § “Best” case: Dubrovka (60 Chechens, all killed, also 119 hostages out of 700) § Russian raids: always within 48 hrs

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents

March-April 1999: War NATO-Serbia (Kosovo) Russia against

“Kursk”

§ Aug 2000: Barents Sea § 12 August: Putin on the Black Sea § 11. 30: 2 explosions, end of radio contacts § 13 August: Kursk localized § 14 August: 1 st rescue attempt, failed

15 August: Russian govt still silent (3 days after!) 16 August: Kremlin asking help (4 days after!), Norway ready to help 17 August: Putin (still at BS): “We don’t need foreign help, Russia has everything!” 18 August: Putin decides to stop his holidays (6 days after!)

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents § Politics: Political crisis

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents § Politics: § Diplomacy: Political crisis Diplomatic crisis

2012 -14: diplomatic crisis Italy-India

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: § § § armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents Politics: Political crisis Diplomacy: Diplomatic crisis Economic-financial: economic crisis (1929, 2008 -today, Greece 2010 -2012)

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents § Politics: Political crisis § Diplomacy: Diplomatic crisis § Economic-financial: economic crisis (1929, 2008 today, Greece 2010 -2012) § Social: humanitarian crisis (famine, diseases, migrations, …)

Examples of humanitarian crises: Darfur

Examples of humanitarian crises:

Example of humanitarian crisis: Syria

Crises are never stand-alone Crises have deep roots

Crises: never stand-alone

Crises have deep roots 31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla

Crises have deep roots 1948: Israel, 1948 -today: Israeli-Arab wars, 2009: Gaza war, 2010: humanitarian situation in Gaza, 31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla

Crises have deep roots 1914: Sarajevo: G. Princip kills F. Ferdinand, 1914 -1918: WW 1, 1919: Versailles Treaty, 1939 -1945: WW 2, Shoah, 1948: Israel, 1948 -today: Israeli-Arab wars, 2009: Gaza war, 2010: humanitarian situation in Gaza, 31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla

Different kinds of Crises: § Politico-military: armed conflicts terrorist attacks accidents § Politics: Political crisis § Diplomacy: Diplomatic crisis § Economic-financial: economic crisis (1929, 2008 today, Greece 2010 -2011) § Social: humanitarian crisis (famine, diseases, migrations, …) public disasters (natural, artificial or human-made)

Suggestions for the final thesis: § “Crisis Management: hostage kidnapping events. Comparison of several case studies”

Module 8, assessment in proficiency (3 June): individual work -subject/format: already submitted by e. mail (29 April). doc format (not. docx, . pdf, …) -time: at any time before 2 June -3 June: brief presentation (verbally, no ppt required) -mark: max 30/30

individual work: Valentina Martin Andrea Yuri Rebecca Pajwak Sohiala Imre Nagy, 1956 Charles De Gaulle, 1958 -1962 John Kennedy, 1963 Alexander Dubcek, 1968 Margaret Thatcher, 1982 George W. Bush, 2001 Nicholas Sarkozy, 2011

Module 8 CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND PREVENTION Giovanni Marizza Mail: gianni. marizza@yahoo. it Cell: 3339483814 Skype: Giaggia 2012 Facebook Whatsapp