Models informing trials Trachoma Trachoma 2

Models informing trials

Trachoma

Trachoma (2)

Healthy eyelid

Severe TF/TI

Scarring

Trichiasis, Corneal opacity

How much less trachoma?

Important facts

Azithromycin

Mass administration

Models informing trials

Children a core group?

Children a core group?

Children a core group?

Models informing trials

Simple model

Extension

Purpose

TANA Trial

NIH TANA Trial, Ethiopia

Trial

Trial

But…

Stochastic epidemic

State space

State space (2)

Model

Fit to data

Starting the model. .

Fit to TANA data

Interpretation

Conclusion

Models informing trials

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments, cont’d

Trachoma Projects in Ethiopia Deb Gill Melissa Neuwelt Nandini Gandhi Cyril Dalmon Nicolle Benitah Ying Pan Lauren Patty Vivian Schiedler Ali Zaidi Dwight Silvera Isabella Phan Chihori Wada David Lee Harsha Reddy Kathryn Ray Rachel May Alison Skalet Sara Haug Andi Hatch Jesse Biebesheimer Traci Brown Laura Cieslik Anita Gupta Susie Osaki-Holm Nazzy Pakpour Karen Shih Scott Shimotsu Kristine Vinup John Warren Yinghui Miao Mariko Bird Greg Schmidt Lynn Olinger Scott Lee Kevin Hong Jaya Chidambaram Allison Loh Deb Gill Larry Schwab Jeremy Keenan Vicky Cevallos Lauren Friedly Bruce Gaynor Tom Lietman Kevin Miller Tisha Prabriputaloong Michael Saidel John P. Whitcher Elizabeth Yi Michael Yoon John Warren Macdara Bodeker Muthiah Srinivasan Marilyn Whitcher Jenafir House Jon Yang Nicole Stoller Charles Lin Tina Rutar Colleen Halfpenny

Funding