Modelling digital content markets Uni S 16

§ Modelling digital content markets Uni. S 16 th Bled Electronic Commerce Conference e. Transformation June, 9 -11, 2003

Principles § Objectives • Understanding the market - Identification of the components and participants of the market: Who are the content providers, what do consumers want. . • Simulating - Creating scenarios and simulations enables decision makers to better understand the market and learn about its dynamics § Principle • Abstraction - The complexity of a real market must be translated into an object model that can be manipulated by using a computer • Simplification - Actions, decisions and relations between market participants must be simplified for a representation in a formal model Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 2 05/06 2003

Method § Iterative approach • Design – Prototyping – User feedback • Market analysis, expert interviews, surveys Because of the degree of uncertainty and imprecise knowledge about online markets, a series of prototypes is being developed. In each iteration insights of the former steps are integrated and more complex models constructed User panel / Evaluation Market analysis, interviews Design Workshop Prototype Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 3 05/06 2003

Development stage § Prototype A (End of first iteration): • Aims: - Decide what software components to use - Implement a first version of the core process of the program - Create something concrete to start from and to talk about • Model: - A simple, general model of a market consisting of providers, consumers and products - The user defines a model by specifying products, providers and consumers for a certain market Each provider has a set of offers he wants to sell in a market, and each consumer has a set of preferences • Simulation: - Only a single step is simulated - In this step consumers evaluate available offers and buy from a provider whose offer matches best to their preference Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 4 05/06 2003

Example: Online news in Portugal Participants and products traded § Products: • • Breaking news Business news Weather news … § Providers: • • Publico. pt Diario de Noticias Lusa … § Customers: • • • Internet Service Providers Mobile phone companies … Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 5 05/06 2003

Example: Online news in Portugal Definition of the dimensions § Providers are defined by attributes related to their reputation and credibility. Example attributes: • • • Credibility Offline brand Editorial staff § Products are defined by attributes related to quality and price. Example attributes: • • • Price Subscription period Quality of sources § Costumers are by now defined only by their preference. Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 6 05/06 2003

Example: Online news in Portugal Definition of supply and demand § An offer is a product that has certain values for its attributes • Example: Breaking news for 5000 €/month § A preference consists of provider and product attributes that a customer wishes to have certain values or value ranges • Example: Breaking news for 4000 -5000 € a month from the market leader Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 7 05/06 2003

Future work § Objectives for the next iteration • Simulating several steps (months, years. . ) • Introduction of behaviours and strategies: Providers can apply different strategies and change them depending on success. Different groups of consumers can be defined with certain purchase behaviours. • Methods for analysis § How to achieve this • Expert interviews (defining strategies and behaviours) • User feedback and demonstrations (refining the model and adapting the software to user requirements) Sim. Web www. simdigital. com Prototyp A demonstration 8 05/06 2003

§ Thank you! www. simdigital. com Stephan Schuster Dpt. of Sociology, University of Surrey, Guildford GU 2 7 XH, UK s. schuster@surrey. ac. uk +44 -1483 -683965