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Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options http: //2050. nies. go. jp Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies. Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options http: //2050. nies. go. jp Junichi Fujino ([email protected] go. jp) NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) COP 12 and COP/MOP 2 Side Event, “Global Challenges Toward a Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Through Sustainable Development (SD)” November 8, 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya

1978 1998 Himalayan Glaciers North Pole Ice in Sep. Source: NASA 1978 1998 Himalayan Glaciers North Pole Ice in Sep. Source: NASA

Back-casting from future target world Required Mitigation Technology development Required intervention 3. We need Back-casting from future target world Required Mitigation Technology development Required intervention 3. We need “Trend Breaks” to realize visions Policy intervention and Investment Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions 2. We need “Visions” Back-casting Checking year(2015) Checking year(2025) 1. Target may be tough 2020 Long-term target yea required intervention policy and measures 2000 Reference future world Forecasting Rele ase of AIM resul t Environmental pressure Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend Normative target world 50% reductions 2050 In the world

As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societies Vision A As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societies Vision A Vision B Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values Akemi Imagawa 2. We need “Visions”

Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050 PV on roof 3 -4 k. W Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050 PV on roof 3 -4 k. W LED light 66% reduction of lighting demand Heat insulation house  60% reduction of heat demand Super high efficiency airconditioner Fuel cell cogeneration COP=8 for cooling Environment Education Eco-life Navigation 10 -20% reduction HEMS (Home Energy Management System) 10 -20% reduction 3. We need “Trend Breaks” Stand-by energy reduction 33% reduction Efficient use New energy Hot water supply by heat pump or solar heating COP=5 for warming Infrastructure Eco-lifestyle

Top Runner Program: Efficiency Improvement -The “Top Runner Program” has -stimulated competition and innovation Top Runner Program: Efficiency Improvement -The “Top Runner Program” has -stimulated competition and innovation in the market, -diffused existing technologies, and -enhanced industrial competitiveness -It created “win-win” situation and virtuous cycle. Fig: Energy efficiency of refrigerator 3. We need “Trend Breaks” (Source) JEMA (2002)

Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating 9. 0 MOE COP (Coefficient Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating 9. 0 MOE COP (Coefficient of performance) 8. 0 Historical AIST 7. 0 6. 0 Best METI 5. 0 4. 0 Average 3. 0 2. 0 1. 0 Worst 3. We need “Trend Breaks” 0. 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Check consistency! AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) for Japan LCS scenarios Check consistency! AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) for Japan LCS scenarios

140 Population by age Population (Thousand) 120 8060 -79 40 -59 20 -39 0 140 Population by age Population (Thousand) 120 8060 -79 40 -59 20 -39 0 -19 100 80 60 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Transportation demand by mode Number of Dwelling by type

Possible trend-breaking options to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan (Scenario A) Main Possible trend-breaking options to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan (Scenario A) Main driving forces to reduce CO 2 emissions Category EE ・Increase rate of natural gas use CI ・Use of high insulation system ・Control of home energy system SD ・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater, lighting system EE CI ・Replacement of working/living place ・Public transportation Service Demand (SD) 40 SD 23 Mt. C 27 Mt. C 16 Mt. C 8 Mt. C 21 Mt. C 11 Mt. C 9 Mt. C 30 Mt. C ・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles, Fuel EE Cell Battery Vehicles CI 11 Mt. C Energy supply ・Nuclear energy ・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage ・CO 2 -free hydrogen supply CI 41 Mt. C ・Advanced fire plant + CCS ・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS 30 Mt. C * CO 2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000 Energy Efficiency (EE) 78 Carbon Intensity (CI) 79 Supply side Transportation ・Production efficiency improvement amount Demand side Residential Activity ・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof Soci Indust ety ry ・reduce raw material production ・decrease numbers of population/household amount* CCS 30 CCS: Carbon Capture Storage

Factor decomposition of CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 Japan using Kaya Identity C:CO Factor decomposition of CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 Japan using Kaya Identity C:CO 2 emissions D:Activity E:Energy demand DC DD D( E / D) D(C ¢ / E ) D(C / C ¢) = + + Cross C D ( E / D) (C ¢ / E ) (C / C ¢) 0% Service demand improvement D -20% Fuel mix change in Energy conversion C/C' Total -18% -7% 2050 A -30% -14% -60% -28% -80% 2050 B vs 2000's C'/E -40% -4% -11% Energy efficiency improvement E/D in end-use sectors Fuel mix change in end-use sectors C’:CO 2 emissions (excluding energy conversion sector) -69% -73%

We support country-wise LCS modeling through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world - We We support country-wise LCS modeling through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world - We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1995 16 -20 Oct 2006 at NIES India China Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Russia South Taiwan, Africa China USA Japan

We qualify and quantify possible future LCS visions using AIM models Vision A Vision We qualify and quantify possible future LCS visions using AIM models Vision A Vision B Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community Technology breakthrough Centralized production /recycle Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values Akemi Imagawa

cross Designed by Hajime Sakai (airbox-pin@nyc. odn. ne. jp) cross Designed by Hajime Sakai ([email protected] odn. ne. jp)