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Modeling flows and water quality in the Lower Jordan River with WEAP Gilad Safier Modeling flows and water quality in the Lower Jordan River with WEAP Gilad Safier August 2011

Work plan ü Reaches, Water Sources, Demand Sites, Hydrometric Stations, Quality Samples, Drainage Basins, Work plan ü Reaches, Water Sources, Demand Sites, Hydrometric Stations, Quality Samples, Drainage Basins, Dams, Fishponds, Ortophoto, etc… ü Focus on Israel, from the Sea of Galilee to Nahal Bezeq ü Water quantities and quality today ü Represents an average year ü Future prediction for 30 years ü Including climate change, Population growth, changes in agricultural consumption, Approved plans ü Water re-introduction to the LJR with maximum salinity of 750 mg/L ü 50 MCM/Yr by the year 2020 ü 100 MCM/Yr by the year 2030 ü 220 MCM/Yr by the year 2040 ü Consumption of some of the water by Israel at Nahal Bezeq

Current Accounts Model Scope §Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1 st • Current Accounts Model Scope §Timeframe: • Hydrological year starts at October 1 st • Monthly Resolution • Hydrological data from 1996 -2010 • One average year §Calculates: • Water flows (m 3/month) • Chlorides(mg/L)

Current Accounts The WEAP Model §GLOWA Model built in WEAP Current Accounts The WEAP Model §GLOWA Model built in WEAP

Current Accounts The WEAP Model Net Evaporation in mm Dr. Alon Rimmer Current Accounts The WEAP Model Net Evaporation in mm Dr. Alon Rimmer

Current Accounts המוביל המלוח The WEAP Model Crop Area (dunams) Bananas Subtropical Trees Dates Current Accounts המוביל המלוח The WEAP Model Crop Area (dunams) Bananas Subtropical Trees Dates Olives Field crops Vegetables 6500 4080 (5100*0. 8) 2200 2800 4500 (30, 000*0. 15) 4900 (7000*0. 7) Annual water use rate (m 3/dunam) 1800 735 (1050*0. 7) 945( 1050*0. 9) 424 (530*0. 8) 150 530

Current Accounts Current Accounts

Current Accounts - Assumptions - Runoff Evaporation from the River Additional water in the Current Accounts - Assumptions - Runoff Evaporation from the River Additional water in the SWC Groundwater inflows to the LJR Return flows from irrigation ….

Runoff from Western tributaries ü Only 1 hydrometric station at Nahal Harod ü Assume Runoff from Western tributaries ü Only 1 hydrometric station at Nahal Harod ü Assume Runoff coefficient is equal throughout the basin Basin Yarmouk Tavor Yissakhar Harod Emeq Hamaayanot Yavneel Bezeq Local Jordan Valley Area (Km 2) 9 252 87 214 58 106 161 12 Rain Depth Relative (MCM) Coefficient 4 0. 04 127 1. 37 36 0. 39 93 1. 00 19 0. 20 51 0. 55 57 0. 61 5 0. 05 Runoff (MCM/Yr) 0. 1 4. 6 1. 3 3. 4 0. 7 1. 8 2. 1 0. 2

Current Accounts - Calibration Nahal Harod Current Accounts - Calibration Nahal Harod

Current Accounts - Calibration §Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources Current Accounts - Calibration §Assumptions regarding salinity: • Fixed salinity of all water sources throughout the year • Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself is neglected • Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L • Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation is 1500 mg/L • Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L • Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L • …

Current Accounts Results Salinity drops as we go southwards in summer But in autumn Current Accounts Results Salinity drops as we go southwards in summer But in autumn it goes up at Nahal Harod Winter flow is 3 times the summer flow

Current Accounts Results §Top 5 contributors: a. b. c. d. e. Emeq Hamaayanot – Current Accounts Results §Top 5 contributors: a. b. c. d. e. Emeq Hamaayanot – 26 MCM; SWC - 19 MCM; Groundwater – 18 MCM; Nahal Harod – 13 MCM; Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM §Rough annual balance: • About 108 MCM enter the LJR • 20 MCM are consumed • 12 MCM evaporate • Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM

Current Accounts Results Current Accounts Results

Current Accounts Current Accounts

Zero alternative - Assumptions National Changes in demand • NWC • KAC Climate Change Zero alternative - Assumptions National Changes in demand • NWC • KAC Climate Change • Inflows to the Kinneret • Evaporation • Flows of springs Local Changes in demand • Reform in Fishponds • Irrigation • Population Growth Future Projects • WW reclamation : Bitaniya, Beit-She’an, Harod • Desalination of the SWC • Release of Harod Spring 3 most important assumptions

Zero alternative – Climate Change Monthly inflows to the Kinneret per decade Zero alternative – Climate Change Monthly inflows to the Kinneret per decade

Zero alternative – National Demand 80% 120% 60% 140% 20% 180% Zero alternative – National Demand 80% 120% 60% 140% 20% 180%

Zero alternative – Results Water level in the Kinneret Zero alternative – Results Water level in the Kinneret

Zero alternative – Results Annual Flows 377 48 Zero alternative – Results Annual Flows 377 48

Zero alternative – Results 2019 Monthly Flows – 1 st period §Kinneret is still Zero alternative – Results 2019 Monthly Flows – 1 st period §Kinneret is still low §Gradual decrease in flows: • Climate change • Desalination of the SWC • Reclamation of Bitaniya WW §Driest year is 2019 Current Accounts

Zero alternative November 2019 §Lower flows at the SWC • Almost zero in November Zero alternative November 2019 §Lower flows at the SWC • Almost zero in November • 5 MCM annually • Related to the level of the Kinneret §Salinity is lower than 1, 000 mg/L upstream Harod § 2 largest contributors: • Emeq Hamaayanot • Harod § 2 Saltiest Reaches • Emeq Hamaayanot • Harod §Result: sharp increase in salinity between Harod and Bezeq

Zero alternative – Results Annual Flows 377 48 Zero alternative – Results Annual Flows 377 48

Zero alternative – Results Monthly Flows – 2 nd period 150 120 MCM 90 Zero alternative – Results Monthly Flows – 2 nd period 150 120 MCM 90 60 30 0 Oct-25 Oct-26 Oct-27 Oct-28 Oct-29 Oct-30 Oct-31 Oct-32 Oct-33 Oct-34 Oct-35 Oct-36 Oct-37 Oct-38 Oct-39 Oct-40

Zero alternative – Results an extremely rainy year §Kinneret inflows – 865 MCM/Yr §Annually Zero alternative – Results an extremely rainy year §Kinneret inflows – 865 MCM/Yr §Annually 80% of the Flow at Shifa Originate in the Kinneret §Monthly: • Flood in February- April • 7 months with no flow from the Kinneret 140 3. 6

Zero alternative – Results 2038 - a dry year Upstream Harod §Kinneret inflows – Zero alternative – Results 2038 - a dry year Upstream Harod §Kinneret inflows – 339 MCM/Yr 3 rd consecutive dry year §Flow is constantly lower: • 2038 – 49 MCM/Yr • Current Accounts – 71 MCM/Yr §Upstream Harod improvement in salinity, but still higher than 750 mg/L Shifa

Zero alternative 2038 – annual flow § 3 -4 MCM/Yr increase in SWC flow Zero alternative 2038 – annual flow § 3 -4 MCM/Yr increase in SWC flow § 9 MCM/Yr decrease of inflows from Emeq Hamayaanot

Zero alternative Local Water Demand Zero alternative Local Water Demand

Zero alternative Available Water suitable for irrigation in Emeq Hamaayanot 12 -18 MCM/Yr 5 Zero alternative Available Water suitable for irrigation in Emeq Hamaayanot 12 -18 MCM/Yr 5 -6 MCM/Yr

 water re-introduction to the LJR תיאור מי ירמוך המוטים לכינרת מי כינרת המועברים water re-introduction to the LJR תיאור מי ירמוך המוטים לכינרת מי כינרת המועברים ל- KAC יועברו דרך הירדן ויישאבו בחרוד הורדת מכסות בעמק הירדן על חשבון התפלת המ. מ. מים המסופקים לאשדות יעקב, מנחמיה וגשר, יסופקו דרך הירדן חוסרים עתידיים של עמק הירדן יושלמו ע"י הזרמה מהכינרת שחרור שוקק, עמל, חומה ומגדל בתמורה לקולחים מתשלובת הקישון הפסקת שאיבה למוביל הארצי המרת חלק מבריכות הדגים בחקלאות אחרת צמצום חקלאות ע"פ צריכת מים ושווי כלכלי סה"כ מלמ"ק בעיה אפשרית איבוד מים למשק 5. 91 הלאומי דורש הסכמה ירדנית. אבדן עומד. 021 -05 דורש פתרון מלא למ. מ וטיפול בבריכות בגשר. 41 מדובר בהשלמת מים שייגרעו מהירדן ? 5 01 02 דורש תשתית הולכה 06 הגדלת ההתפלה מהים ? דורש פיצוי לחקלאים 052 -081 מלמ"ק

Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M. Sc in Hydroinformatics 054 -9444118 gilad@dhvmed. com Thank you for listening Gilad Safier M. Sc in Hydroinformatics 054 -9444118 [email protected] com