Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time Robert David Steele (Vivas) Seattle, 18 January 2007 FINAL As Delivered, Version 6. 5 Planned Words in Notes—Copy at www. oss. net/AMAZON
Dare to Want it All! The Plan • • One slide for big picture. One slide on Who Is. 53 slides in 25 minutes. INTERRUPT Concisely Then 5 slides in depth. Then interactive dialog Drinks afterward if desired. Email anytime: oss. net[]cox. net This briefing with words in Notes format is at: http: //www. oss. net/AMAZON.
End Game: The World Brain Global Public Human Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online All Social Networks Online Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking Google. Earth Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense. Making Wikipedia in All Languages
Who Is Robert Steele? • • • #1 Amazon reviewer for non-fiction #51 over-all (all product reviews, doing just n-f) A top individual purchaser of books ($5 K/yr) Member, Amazon Advantage & Amazon Prime Author & publisher of intelligence books Global authority on public intelligence Former spy, angry about $60 B/yr in waste The world’s most demanding end-user Patriot who wants to save USA by saving Earth.
Nits Before We Start • For Customers – – – • For Reviewers – – • Allow search for specific reviewer within any book page Adapt Lists to show full review by the list maker, for any book Adapt Social Life of Books visualization for context Option to be visible to “Popular In” collectives Allow “Invite a Friend” to be used as indirect email. Allow URLs to be added everywhere (reviews, comments, instead of reviews, etc. ) Allow sorting of full reviews into categories similar to lists Provide dashboard for seeing titles only for categorization Provide tally of recent votes & comments across all books Provide spreadsheet of votes & comments for all books by category/title For Publishers – Allow specified minimum orders of two for shrink-wrapped books • For Authors – Offer a Kinko’s one-of publishing alternative to China – Solicit customer interests for books that do not exist yet – Provide a portal for buying and selling raw data & piecework
One-Page Version of Brief 1. A 3 hosts all Information in all languages on consignment. 2. Sell content at three levels: 1. Synthetic (100% profit) 2. Footnotes (micro-cash profit) 3. Original works (50% profit) 3. Hence, put all publishers out of business and kill carbon cost. 4. Make sense of all information for profit, and provide F/OSS analytic toolkit. 5. Hence, put Microsoft and ORACLE out of business, create interoperable net. 6. Show, make sense of, and sell all overt government information (national to local) and especially budget data, 7. Show, make sense of, and sell corporate information/ evaluations including carbon & other footprints. 8. See “True Cost” information via Scan. Back at point of sale, profit from buycotts that choose to go green. 9. Migrate world to paying for knowledge by the paragraph or text message while also creating new knowledge in near-real-time, owning the aggregate. 10. Show and sell memes & mind-maps and networks at clan and tribe level. 11. Make education free (to capture 5 billion new customers), and in doing so, save the Earth. 12. Grow by an order of magnitude.
Secret Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital English Language Oral/Unpublished NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Analog FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *33 predominant languages, 183 vital dialects, over 3, 000 distinct languages in all.
Secret Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination More Satisfying 50% 0% Less Costly Does Not Exist OSINT HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50% In 2006, five years after 9 -11, we still do not have integrated watch list for terrorists.
Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information! ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT 95% of cost 20% of value 5% of cost 80% of value OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
Baseball (Wiki) Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT Open Source HUMINT Human SIGINT Signals IMINT Imagery MASINT Measurements & Signatures
Amazon Already Doing… S 3: Simple Storage Service Wow! Become the Information Merchant Bank in all languages, starting with free storage for university dissertations and newspaper archives. Own the aggregate, which in turn allows 100% profit on synthetic top-level answers. Ask. Ville Quest Coin Wow! Needs Wow! A new work but could form of untaxed explode. world currency Scan. Back Wow! Think Green— Water, Fuel, Labor Content Information, Options Own Client by Being Their Hand-Held Intelligence Service!
Vint Cerf Predicts: By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. Steele Asks: Amazon-Fed. Ex-Kinkos? NOTE: Book. Surge wastes carbon. By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form. Steele Asks: Amazon-IBM-Yahoo-CISCO-Trio? NOTE: Annotation of online versions good, needs work —bring in Doug Englebart from Bootstrap. http: //www. longbets. org/predictions
The Problem • Earth changing faster – Changes that used to take 10, 000 years now take 3 years – Peak Oil now definite – Water Scarcity is the other major shortfall – Pandemic disease soon? – Individual Nations are powerless in isolation • Information exploding – Government focuses on expensive secrets and military enemies – Bureaucracies focus on day to day business – No one is dedicated to making sense of all information in all languages all the time WARNING: Books ten years in the writing no longer cut it—need real-time knowledge. At the same time, most products are unaffordable when “true cost” is calculated—Amazon can become the enabler for “green” products & services, and profit thereby. We need a global public intelligence network with a serious hub.
The Information Environment I N F O R M A T I O N Profit is in tailored timely sensemaking, not in mass-produced products or information. Available Information Actionable Intelligence The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! TIME Open source information is more complex than secrets… Foreign languages are critical to global understanding.
Time-Value of Information This is really important! • Time is the one asset that cannot be bought nor replaced. • If Amazon can become the hub for near-real-time (NRT) collection, sensemaking, and tailored dissemination, this is 80% of the profit base/intangible value, inclusive of enhanced global understanding, collaboration, & sanity.
Valuation Is Changing Fast • • Irreplacable: TIME Irreplacable: EARTH Value-Added: SENSE Infinitely shareable at no additional cost: INFORMATION • Losing value: – – Goods Cash money Secret/Internal information Proprietary technology • High Value Offerings: – Multi-Media learning & sharing, not just text – Communities of Interest – Context – Cultural intelligence – Localized relevance – Global connections – Quality – Innovation – Speed – “True Cost” savings It’s not about products or even service—it’s about public intelligence, e. g. “true cost. ”
Alternative Service Model Using Information to Connect People & Create Answers Challenge Match for Aspin-Brown OSS versus entire secret US IC OSS won with six phone calls. • TIRED (& SECRET) – – – Executive Summary Old regional survey High-level map Desk analyst visit Telcon with Embassy • WIRED (& OPEN) – – – Top 10 Journalists Top 10 Academics Tribal Orders of Battle Time Line Overviews Soviet 1: 50 Maps Commercial Imagery
Seven Generations of Intelligence & Information Operations Evolutionary Eras 1 st Generation 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 4 th Generation 5 th Generation 6 th Generation 7 th Generation What Do We Need to Know Easy: Where is the army? Easy: Where are the trenches? Moderate: How many with what? Hard: Watch every non-state actor. Hard: Watch everything on the fly. Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.
From Linear to Systems Thinking • Agricultural Era: • Simple localized systems • Industrial Era: Complex • isolated systems • Information Era: • Complex combinations of complex systems that most do not understand • • Conceptual Era: Learning to learn, to anticipate, to collaborate, and to create infinite wealth at all levels Verbal communications face to face (one to one) Books (one to many) Multi-media products (mixed) All information in all languages all the time, with historical & cultural context, and the tools to make sense and get answers in real time. READWRITE not READ ONLY. Connecting dots to dots at machine speed, dots to people, and people to people. This era started around 1992—we are 15 years behind the power curve. The good news is that everyone else is 25 years behind.
Social Life of Books Citation Analysis on Steroids http: //www. orgnet. com/booknet. html
Become the World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time Expert Forum One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit Shared Calendar Distance Learning Shared Rolodex OPG VPN Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Library Virtual Budget Weekly Review Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
360° 24/7 All Languages…. Amazon. com • • • Books Authors Local Buyer Networks Content for Microcash Alerts on new work Amazon. calc • My. Budget • Budget. Monitor • National Budget Online for Dialog Amazon. edu • • • Amazon. time Answers/Reach-back Classes/Degrees Mentors Testing/Challenges Global Library Amazon. event Amazon. net Amazon. org • News by threat, policy, challenger, neighborhood • True Cost information via Scan. Back • Eyes On Everywhere • • • Amazon. geo • Places to books • Books to places • Actual & virtual influence circles Social Investing Micro-Cash Lift the 5 Billion Flush the Corrupt Save the Planet
Wiki. Calc@Amazon? 6. 3 to 6. 8 pounds (2. 85 to 3. 1 kg) of carbon emissions per burger the rough equivalent of the annual carbon output from 7, 500 -15, 000 SUVs if the 300 million US citizens hit the 3 burgers/week average. • • Number extraction? Number relations? Budget links to books? Water, fuel, labor content as micro-cash service? • Corporate and government budget monitoring & dialog as a service?
“True Cost”@Amazon • Amazon can drop water, carbon, & sweatshop labor costs • Amazon can displace publishers, reward authors, and print books at Kinko’s for Fed. Ex delivery. • Amazon can displace EBay at least in books • Earth wins.
Dominate Knowledge Life Cycle • Own & sell information – Blogs, Comments, Books, Etc. – True cost information – Information at the paragraph level • Create a new environment life cycle – Enable sharing of information & products – Enable re-cycling of books & products – Enable infinite adaptation – Enable infinite innovation & invention
The Intelligence Marketplace Each Isolated and Non-Collaborative; Proprietary Software. Tools & Storage; Limited Foreign Language Access, No Historical or Cultural Context Policy Intelligence Foreign Countries, Organizations, Languages Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Military Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman” Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
Hold & Sell All Information Note: Information will displace products & services Commercial Online Books & Journals Maps & Commercial Imagery Telephone Surveys Amazon Universe Conferences & Dissertations Complex Human & IT Services Gray Literature Internet
Be the Aggregator for All Connect People, Organizations, & Useful Knowledge Schools & Universities Public & Special Libraries Information Brokers & Private Investigators Niche & Mass Media Amazon Clients Business Information Government Information Intelligence Communities WWW Virtual Library
New Craft of Intelligence Capture First Three Quadrants, Cut Fourth by 3/5 ths China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused! I IV Lessons of History Spies & Secrecy II III Global Coverage National Intelligence Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Open. Tools@Amazon? • • • Where tools? Why not? Tools for finding Tools for gisting Tools for linking Tools for weighting Tools for sharing Tools for buying wisely Tools for research Tools for presenting
Open Literature Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Foreign Language Translation Clustering and Linking of Related Data NE W Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data : In en t N etw Restricted Information Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data tel lig OLD: Non-Text Data Graphic and Map. Based Visualization of Data Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Collaborative Work E n ab les Desktop Publishing and Word Processing A pp lic ati on s A t A ll P oin t s Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Detection of Alert Situations Modeling and Simulations Structured Argument Analysis Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review
Intelligence@Amazon
Seven Intelligence Tribes: National The Way Ahead Religions & Clans NGO & Media Military Law Enforcement Academic Business
Money@Amazon
HUMINT Point of Entry Raw Produces Actionable Intelligence SIGINT IMINT MASINT OPS OTHER Dots need to be connecting at every level, Including immediately upon ingestion. Processed Raw OPINTEL Finished Intelligence Policy Package Today, one third of the dots connect here. (Collect 2/3 rd, spill half—some say 80%) Public Perception HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OPS OTHER Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down
The Big Picture I Four processing quadrants that S 3 can monetize IV - Organizational Intelligence Meta-Data CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) S 3/IBM as Sense-Maker of Aggregate & Particular Data Organizational Memory System Patents, Etc. Data Visualization & Geospacial Rendering E-Commerce Automated Analysis Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion EXTERNAL Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring Trade Secrets TECHNICAL Project/Group Management III - External Information Vendor Reporting Internal Reporting INTERNAL I - Knowledge Management Government Monitoring Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge HUMAN Training Personal Brand Cell # PERSONALITY Churning (Rotationals) Trip Reports (Insight/Intuition) II - Collaborative Work
The Big Picture II Four information quadrants that S 3 can monetize The Global Brain Knowledge networks Intelligent Agents Personal Assistants Degree of Information Connectivity Artificial Intelligence Semantic webs Enterprise minds Smart marketplaces Group minds Semantic Web The Metaweb Connects Knowledge Connects Intelligence Ontologies Taxonomies Search engines “The Relationship” Web Knowledge bases Knowledge management Semantic weblogs Enterprise portals Marketplace auctions Content portals Websites Decentralized communities Groupware Wikis Weblogs RSS Community portals The Web Social Software Connects Information Connects People Databases Personal information managers E-mail “Push” Publications & Subscriptions File servers P 2 P File-sharing USENET Instant messaging Conferencing Social Networks Degree of social connectivity http: //novaspivack. typepad. com/nova_spivacks_weblog/2004/04/new_version_of_. html
Putting It All Together NETWORK ARCHITECTURE: web browser • processing in the bit stream interoperation • • Largest software text system application web server • Fuses information across 260 disparate database systems • Over 4 billion documents • Over 10, 000 named users SEMANTIC ARCHITECTURE: • text-capable • scaled business logic INTELLIGENCE ARCHITECTURE: Many Other Many Domino Many Oracle • incorporates open sources, on and off line Tera. Text Servers • matches global real time knowledge to individual situations
Become the Earth Intelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Earth Intelligence Network If it’s known to an organization and is not private, it gets into EIN. Earth. Pedia Earth. Game Earth. Budget Use or replace Google Earth as shared focal point for visualization and data relations. All elements link from paragraph level to Amazon Inside the Book and Amazon Answers Other Key Partners: Key Concepts: CISCO content-based routing Yahoo search & social networks IBM sense-making Fed. Ex Kinkos (publish & recycle 1 of) Reuniting America World Index of Social/Enviro Resp. UN State of the Future, etc. Transparency (Public Intelligence) Accountability (Digital Memory) Resilience (Reality-Based Games) Sustainability (Open Budgets) Profit (Save Global Commerce) Sell by the paragraph; create tailored books; displace most publishing houses; recycle books Create new paragraphs via EIN as needed, and sell those
So lu t Brazil io n: Ab China an Pe do ac n t European Union ek he ee W pi ng ar M Indonesia & eta Tr an pho sp r & India ar en Sec t R re ea cy lit , M Indonesia y. Ba ove se Di r d Bu ect Russia dg ly t et o I in nf g Real-world Real or USA m at -time Dollars & io n Sense Venezuela Wild Card(s) Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels
Amazon Can Rule • What did the previous slide really mean? – Access all information in all languages on consignment, but the only one with all of it, all with geospatial and time-date tags – Make sense of all that information, in detail and in the macro or meta sense, and sell that sense to every government & corporation – This includes belief systems at the individual, neighborhood, clan, and tribe levels – Store state & local information, then do reality check on budgets – Store corporate and non-profit budgets, cross-fertilize/de-conflict • The USG is insolvent. This is bad for business. • Corporations are predatory. This is bad for business. • Snowcrash is here now. Amazon can not only beat Google, it can crush Microsoft & ORACLE. • Amazon can be the foundation for restoring informed democracy and moral capitalism—natural capitalism—while lifting the world from poverty, creating 5 billion new clients & potential authors.
Intelligence Valuation $111 B/Year Marketplace and Rising Exponentially Federal smart IT and OSINT: >$6 B/year US Corporate business intelligence: >25 B/year Value of Common “I” to Generic “T”: State & Global smart Priceless Local smart IT and intel: shared intel: >$5 B/year >$75 B/year
Real-World Information Dollars Intelligence Community Government Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Global Distributed Knowledge 1 B 100 B 1 TRILLION Potential Burden-Sharing Budget from USG Outwards
Intelligence@Amazon • Global understanding could prevent global warming & related catastrophes. • Global education could resolve & prevent human breakdowns. • Global tools could spread the wealth.
So, Where Now? • Amazon is a great company. • Can you lift Earth? : Storage Products Intelligence – Earth Monitoring – Policy Development – Cross-cultural communications – Public Intelligence – Futures arbitrage Finance
Start by Saving America National Security Reform Educate the Nation on reality Have a coherent strategy Big War force for $250 B Small War force up to $75 B Peace force up to $100 B Home force up to $75 B Intelligence Reform Restructure Presidential staff Integrate All Sources/Agencies Elevate NIC to EOP Global Knowledge Network Redirect agencies State & local intelligence Governance Reform “Creating a Smart Nation, Of, By, and For the People” Coalition Cabinet Quality education for all Health care & public health Ethics is cost-effective Focus on Protecting Future Train the next President Electoral Reform Informed Voters Voting on week-ends League of Women Voters Cabinet choices join debates Instant Run-Off End gerrymandering End corporate funding Bottom Line: Live by the Golden Rule
The Strategic Vision Governments are broken. Information can create infinite wealth and displace violence. Amazon can profit from harnessing the distributed intelligence of the Whole Earth, while saving the Earth.
Operational Vision • Harness the complete information spectrum • Become the trusted provider for tailored public intelligence, answers on demand • Become the “Moody’s” for all products & services • Be the direct publisher for all authors in all languages • Be able to publish anything in any language one copy at a time. • Use Fed. Ex. Kinko’s to share, collect, scan, recycle, and nurture localized networks.
Three Major Profit Streams 1 2 3 1. Pure new profit from synthetic information free of copyright 2. Increased profit from monetizing at quote and page levels 3. Shared profit from displacing publishers and helping green companies increase marketshare, put Wal. Mart out of business by helping local producers. If you are among 7% of color-blind, the above color is cash green…. .
Copyright • • Most lawyers afraid to admit ignorance. Synthetic information is copyright free. “Footnotes” can be sold for micro-cash. Step 1: Monetize at paragraph level. Step 2: Establish right to sell synthetic. Step 3: Recruit all authors directly Step 4: Be able to publish anything in any language one copy at a time.
Profitable First Steps • • • S 3 Free to Academia, NGOs, USSOCOM—this sets stage for synthetic information profit and displacing Institute of Scientific Information citation analysis service Create Global Intelligence Council— this harnesses most experts who are paid in access while S 3 earns cash Adopt Golden Candle Society as Global Registry for anyone with a brain —change the model, aggregate customer requirements and then meet them immediately Monetize by paragraph and hour— double S 3 revenue Displace publishers and consultants— double again—first monetize and honor copyright on existing works, then recruit all authors directly. • • • Offer F/OSS STRONG ANGEL Toolkit —death to MS Accelerate digitization, collaborate with Internet Archives (Brewster Kahle) and Library of Congress Become the Information Merchant Bank with three objectives: – 1) triple Amazon profit & revenue in five years by monetizing all information not now sold via Amazon, and selling existing information by the paragraph. – 2) use the cell phone to profit from point of sale diversion of end-users; – 3) save the planet by providing free education in all languages, extend Amazon client base to the other five billion people. • Displace Google or Partner with Google. Use India as Partner to create unclassified CIA right now.
Pilot Project: • Start with what you have on each of these 30 topics • Go find and digitize the rest or know where it is • Recruit the top 100 authors for each • Begin selling old, current, and new knowledge online • Host annual conference and global database on each
End Game: The World Brain Global Public Human Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online All Social Networks Online Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking Google. Earth Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense. Making Wikipedia in All Languages
Will speak for sushi • Robert D. Steele • www. oss. net • Meta documents: – www. oss. net/BASIC – www. oss. net/LIBRARY • Cool briefs: – www. oss. net/FAILURE – www. oss. net/HOPE – www. oss. net/BRAIN • This brief: – www. oss. net/AMAZON
Dare to Want it All!
Скачать презентацию Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain
781ed40bacfb8f7cbf1c723c24fdf96f.ppt