MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY MODELING EXPERIENCE NOV

MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY MODELING EXPERIENCE NOV, 2012

PRESENTATION ON THE MODELING EXPERIENCE OF MOWE q Introduction q General concept and use of models q Experiences of Modeling in the MOWE q Capacity and Challenges q Way Forward

INTRODUCTION 12 basins with 1. 13 M Sq Km A surface water resource of 122 BM 3 Ground water resource more than 35 BM 3 and also under study Challenges in terms of development, management optimization that needs reliable tools

GENERAL CONCEPT, TYPE AND USE OF MODELS General Concept Models in water resource management are tools that are used to inform decisions about water resources in quantity and quality, Environmental, and water management in Complex regional systems. Type of models Simulation and optimization models Hydrological and meteorological models Disaster management models Water quality models Design models

USE OF MODELS Estimate runoff from watersheds predict interactions between ground-water and surface water bodies used to study reservoir operation; to forecast floods and plan flood-control programs; to predict, embankment erosion, and dam breaks; and to plan for ecosystem restoration. for the real-time operation and management of water systems and for assessing water supply availability and reliability used for determining facility-size requirements for water storage and distribution systems predict changes in a river bed form and location, including bank erosion, scouring, changes in the hydraulic regime, and so on. used for morphological studies in small- and large-scale rivers of all kinds and in all settings, as well in reservoirs. Evaluate alternative water allocation scenario and assist in assessing the impact of intervention

EXPERIENCE OF MODELING WITHIN THE MINISTRY The Ministry of Water and Energy has been developing models for years as part of the Integrated Basin Development Master Plan Studies as well as other specific studies most of the models are developed by consultants and, some experiences using in house staffs Relevant directorates in water resources modeling activities are Hydrology and Water Quality, Basin Administration Directorate, Water Use Permit and Administration Directorate, Environmental Impact Assessment and Social Development Office, Energy …. . And Research Directorates

SOME MODELS THAT ARE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MINISTRY SR. No. Types of Model used For water resource Planning Project / study 1 Awash Surface Water Master Plan Studies Water Resource Modeling (Water Balance , Water allocation and Use) HEC-5(Simulation Model), WEAP, 2 3 Omo – Integrated Development Master Plan Studies Baro - Integrated Development Master Plan Studies HEC-5 Model -for Reservoirs Operation 4 Abbay Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Studies -WATBAL(WBCOMP, WBFAIL 5 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies RIBASIM-Hydrology 7 8 9 10 11 11 Integrated Development Master Plan Studies Sedimentation Project Institutional Setup Studies of Abbay Basin Project Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Dev. MIKEBASIN 12 13 14 15 WBPLOT, WEAP SWAT Mike 11 -WEAP -RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELWatbal Irrigation and Drainage Project -WEAP Reservoir operation activity for majior dams in water balance EXEL MODEL Rainfall runoff estimation for Flood management in and HEC HMS, NAM module of MIKE II Awash bains HEC RAS and Geo RAS Water Quality

MODELING CAPACITY AND CHALLENGES Modeling Capacity Modeling capacity within the Ministry is very low Some practical experiences in some directorates Need to establish modeling unit Some Modeling soft-wares and equipments available Challenges No adequate experienced staff There is high turnover of staffs that are trained in modeling Lack of Modeling tools and Equipments There is No take over of the activities undertaken by different studies

FUTURE DIRECTION concentrate on checking, updating and make use of existing models for operational purposes Integration among different directorates Capacity development, human and institutional Co-operate with different stakeholders, universities and institutes that are working in modeling

PRACTICAL EXPERIENCES Main Activities Reservoir Management Flood forecasting, monitoring and control Tools Forecasting using simple EXEL models Forecasting using models like HEC-HMS, MIKE II Monitoring near real time data

PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR WL USING SIMPLE EXEL MODELS

Rainfall forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012

Runoff forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012 Fogera Rivers (Gumara and Ribb): Peak flood is expected in the evening of 15 th and in the morning of 16 th September, 2012 (around midnight) Dembiya Rivers (Dirma and Megech): Peak flood is expected in the early morning of 16 September 2012 (around 3: 00 AM)

Runoff forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012, (Fogera floodplain)

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