Microsimulation in the UK the current state of

Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool

Current MSM in the UK: an overview Model Multiple OPERA MOSES SCOTSIM SAGEMOD Sim. Britain EUROMOD Lawson Anderson S-Paramics Sim. DELTA SOCSIM CARESIM FEARLUS ADa. PT ? ? Institution DWP Treasury PPI IFS Stirling Leeds Liverpool Southampton Sheffield Essex SIAS DSC LSE UEA MLURI Southampton York Leeds Static X X Dynamic X X X ABM X X X Tax-benefit Demographic X X X X Other X X X ? X X X X X Public X X X

% of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS Distribution SEG / Household composition SEG / Rooms Household composition / Dependants / Tenure Sex / marital status / tenure Illness / sex Rural (South West) ‘Middling England’ (East Mids. ) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London) 0 0 0. 5 0 0 0 0 16 0 1. 5 0 3. 0 0 1. 5 0 0 Synthetically estimated spatial microdata

Telephony: 2005/6 • • Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6) EEDA, LSOA level • • Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) Spearman rho = 0. 7796, p < 0. 001

• Validation: – – (Spearman rho = 0. 8404, p < 0. 001) Strong correlation with Census 2001 ‘work time’ Simulated ‘work time’ ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA

2001 2011 % More happy than usual

Happiness & Life Events Event Correlation Top 5 negative associations Relationships (mine ending) -0. 178 Death (parent) -0. 166 Healthparent -0. 139 Death (other) -0. 137 Employment job loss -0. 129 Top Five positive associations Relationships (mine starting) 0. 160 Employment job gain 0. 097 Finance (house) 0. 097 Pregnancy (mine) 0. 084 Pregnancy (child's) 0. 053

OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures

(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence

MOSES Workflow Research Object Portlet

‘Conventional’ migration distribution procedure Simulation Database 1 Migrant generation model 5 2 Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics 2 Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings 3 Spatial Interaction Model 4 Compute dwelling preference for each migrant

ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM

Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour

ABM v. MSM?

The Global Epidemic Simulator t 1 t 2 t 3 t 4

Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 (MAP 2030)

SOCSIM

Average number of living grand children and grand parents (complete)

CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged 45 -64 + Need to simulate pensions & retirement

CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models Greater public policy influence

SPARES

Behavioural Labour Supply Modelling Household Income (yh ) U h*=maxh U= U( h, yh | X ) Hours of labour supplied by household (h)

S-Paramics

FEARLUS – Land use model (ABM) Yellow: actual forestry Green: suitable forestry Red: ownership boundaries Land use is based on more than suitability and (simple) economics i. e. Sociological factors (owner preferences) • e. g. Grouse shooting

FEARLUS-W Land use selection Land Uses Estimated Yield Calculation of Return Climate £ Market Conditions Land use Estimated Social Acceptability Neighbours’ Approval/Disapproval Social Interactions Biophysical properties Yearly Cycle Return Pollution Before After Land sales

Year 12 Year 14 With Social Approval No Reward Year 16 Year 17

Sim. DELTA – model processes

Transport test: M 18 spur New junction