- Количество слайдов: 52
Metrics Dr. Johnny Snyder
Outline - Metrics Historical Overview of Metrics n Time as a Metric n The FS Metric n An Example n Other Metrics in Computer Information Systems n Conclusion n
A Motto n “What is not measurable make measurable. ” Galileo Galilei (1564 – 1642)
The 1950’s n What metrics?
The 1960’s n Leonard Kleinrock writes first paper on packet switching. n First packets sent on ARPANet – 1969. n Note: The system crashed as the g in login was reached! (Howe, 2004; Zakon, 2004)
The 1970’s n ARPANet protocol established. n Ethernet appeared. n ARPANet users number 2, 000. (Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 1980’s n First virus appears. n BITNET appears (e-mail). n Number of hosts breaks 1, 000; 10, 000; then 100, 000. n Archie appears (ftp archiver – Internet index!). (Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 1990’s n WWW appears. n gopher appears (indexing the web). n Number of hosts surpasses 1, 000. n Shopping appears on the Internet! (Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)
The 21 st Century n Remember Y 2 K? n More than 1, 000, 000 indexed pages. n Flash mobs, Internet taxes, spam, speed… n US Census Bureau has 1. 5 million page views per day. (Census Bureau, 2004)
Time… Technology Time to reach 25% penetration (years) Television Radio Telephone 25 27 35 Personal Computers Cell Phones World Wide Web 16 13 7 (Baase, 2003)
Time (1) n Recall that: for humans.
Time - human n I. e. in one year, we will all be one year older!
Time (2) n Also, recall that for cats.
Time - Cats n …so in one year our cats will be seven years older! n note: 18 h. y. = 126 c. y.
Time (3) n But, for computers.
Time - computers n Next year my computer will be 100 years old!
Time (4) n For the Internet, because it is moving fast…
Which metric measures the Internet? n Speed: powers of 10 (by threes) n Host growth: exponential n Number of pages: exponential n Number of possible paths: factorial
Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907): “When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it…”
The FS Metric n As the 21 st century evolves, new metrics will have to be developed, explored and tested for validity. n Many web sites and software tools appeal to the individualistic side of our personalities (as well as cultural and societal norms).
Feng Shui n A study of how energies in our environment affect the way we live and work in this area (the web) at this time.
Fang Shooy n A study of how energies in our environment, when left unchecked, can disrupt how we live and work in this environment (the web) at this time.
What does this prove? n Well… § Nothing.
What does this illustrate? n That individual perceptions are hard to quantify and thus measure.
How do we prove conjectures? n n With theorems How do we prove theorems? ¨ With more theorems! ¨ Postulates ¨ Axioms
Remember Euclid? (~300 BC) n Formulated axiomatic system for geometry. n Stood for more than 2, 000 years as the model for organized thinking. n Axioms are “self-evident truths. ” (Burton, 2003)
What are Internet axioms? n Words in all uppercase letters are offensive. n Back buttons are necessary. n Pop-ups are annoying. n Speed is good. n Clutter is bad.
Definitions n How do you “define” a metric for something like a search engine for cyberspace?
Definitions (2) n Question: What is the fundamental purpose of a search engine? n Answer: To search the web.
Definitions (3) n First we need a scale. n How about 1 to 10? n How about 0 to 100? n How about -3 to 3 with zero being neutral?
Definitions (4) n Lets select 0 to 100 with 0 being bad and 100 being good. Further, lets assume that we begin at 100 and subtract points as “errors” are encountered. (axioms violated)
Definitions (5) Pluses n n n n Minuses Order* Calm* Open* Passive Colors* Home Page No Pop-Ups Fast Loading No Horizontal Scrolling n n n n Chaos* Busy* Cluttered* Active Colors* Splash Page Pop-Ups Slow Loading Horizontal Scrolling * = Subject to individual interpretation
Example: Search Engines n Evaluate the major search engines using the following point structure: ¨ pop-ups ¨ horizontal scrolling ¨ scrolling text ¨ poor colors ¨ flashing animations ¨ information overload ¨ vertical scrolling - 10 -8 -5 -5 -3
Search Engine Rating Scale 0 50 100 Netscape Yahoo Excite Alta Vista Dogpile Google Hogsearch Lycos
Qualitative to Quantitative Qualitative Measure Quantitative Measure
Metrics in Systems Analysis and Design n Gantt Charts and PERT Charts Diagramming Usability Testing Data/Axioms The System! Level 0 DFD Results/Theorems
Metrics in E-Commerce Click Through Rate (ad click) n Clickstream Data n Hit Rate n Knowledge Curve n Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate n Throughput n
Metrics in Human Computer Interaction n Geert Hofstede and dimensions of culture n Fitt’s Law n Hick’s Law
Metrics in HCI (2) n Meyer’s Law n Power Law of Practice
New Metrics (needed) e-waste n e-pollution n e-warfare n e-learning n e-voting n e-taxes n e~2. 71828… n
Conclusions n n Metrics permeate, somehow, most fields of study. CIS is a field where old metrics can be analyzed and applied. CIS is a field where new metrics can be formulated, tested and applied. That makes CIS interesting and entertaining!
Conclusions (2) n That is a bit about me and some of the ideas that I am interested in. n Thanks again for coming! n Questions?
References n Baase, S. (2003). A Gift of Fire. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall n Burton, D. (2003). The History of Mathematics: An Introduction. New York: Mc. Graw-Hill n Census Bureau, (2004). Retrieved December 1, 2004 from: http: //www. census. gov/webdecade
References (2) n Hofstede, G. (1997). Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. New York: Mc. Graw-Hill n Howe, W. (2004). A Brief History of the Internet. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http: //www. walthowe. com/navnet/history. html n Zakon, R. (2004). Hobbes’ Internet Timeline v 7. 0. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http: //www. zakon. org/robert/internet/timeline
Top Five Metric (Grand Junction) Search Engine Google Dogpile 5 Museum of W. Colorado Hotels 4 National Weather Service Quality Inn 3 Chamber of Commerce Real Estate 2 City of Grand Junction Hotels (Hotels. By. City) 1 Visitor Bureau Hotels (Expedia)
Top Five Metric (Mesa State College) Search Engine Google Dogpile 5 Study USA www. 10000 scholarship. com 4 US University Resource college. us. com 3 Mesa State’s Homepage no longer resides… 2 Mesa State Athletics 1 Mesa State Homepage