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Mesoscale Objective Analysis: An Analysis of Record? John Horel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Mesoscale Objective Analysis: An Analysis of Record? John Horel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction Department of Meteorology University of Utah [email protected] utah. edu Brad Colman Seattle Weather Forecast Office brad. [email protected] gov Co-Chairs Mesoscale Analysis Committee NWS Office of Science and Technology http: //www. met. utah. edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac. htm

Context • Admiral Lautenbacher – “Observations alone are often meaningless without the actions that Context • Admiral Lautenbacher – “Observations alone are often meaningless without the actions that provide economic and societal benefit” • Comprehensive weather and climate observing system requires integration and synthesis of observations into gridded analyses of current and past states of atmosphere • NWS has critical need to produce real-time and retrospective analyses at high resolution to help create and verify gridded forecasts as part of NWS Digital Services Program (L. Spayd IIPS Thursday)

GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems” Global Earth Observing System of Systems Global Observing GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems” Global Earth Observing System of Systems Global Observing Systems GCOS GOOS GTOS WHYCOS World Weather IGBP IOOS CEOS IGOS National/Multinational Observing Systems Private Sector Observing Systems Satellites Surface Obs. Mesonets Radar Aircraft Lightning Ocean Observations Commercial Aircraft Paleo-data Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Climate Disasters Energy Variability and Ocean Resources Change Health Agriculture Ecosystem Water Resources Societal Benefits 3 P. Arkin

Proposed Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Workshop 18 -20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado Proposed Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Workshop 18 -20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado (http: //www. joss. ucar. edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop. • Integrate and analyze global observations • Describe and monitor climate variations and their causes as they occur • Understand model climate changes and their origins • Assess impacts regionally: on environment, human activities and sectors such as agriculture, energy, fisheries, water resources, etc. See also Trenberth et al. (2002) BAMS P. Arkin

NWS Traditional Forecasting Process – Schedule Driven – Product Oriented – Labor Intensive National NWS Traditional Forecasting Process – Schedule Driven – Product Oriented – Labor Intensive National Centers Model Guidance Field Offices National Centers Type Text Products Generate Graphical Products TODAY. . . RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. EASTON PTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY 60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33 POP 20 POP 10 » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » » U. S. Drought Monitor Threats Assessments Excessive Heat Products

NWS New Forecasting Process Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) National Centers Model Guidance • NWS New Forecasting Process Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) National Centers Model Guidance • Interactive – Collaborative – Information Oriented High Resolution Grids Field Offices Local Digital Forecast Database Collaborate National Centers Data and Science Focus NWS Automated Products LY. LIKE VE. RAIN ABO LY AY. . TOD W LIKE SNOWBY. SNO FEET ATION N 1 0 250 CUMULERNOOOVE AC E AFT ES AB DER LAT 2 INCH. COL TO 40. O FEET S 35 D 5 T 0 250 H HIGH T WIN ING S WITUTHEAH SHIFT SO 10 MP Y ARL TO THE STE N. TO UTHWE RNOO SO IS AFTE F %. H NCE O TION 70 T A CH ECIPITA PR Digital Text Graphic Voice User-Generated Products National Digital Forecast Database

How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will Be How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will Be Better? Concerns raised: – C. Mass (2003) WAF – WR SOO/DOH IFPS white paper provided recommendations: • • Develop a national real-time, gridded verification system Provide full-resolution NCEP model grids Objectively produce bias-corrected model grids for WFO use Implement methods to objectively downscale forecast grids Incorporate climatology grids into the GFE process Deliver short and medium-range ensemble grids Modify the GFE software to ingest real-time data Optimize ways to tap forecaster expertise

Analysis of Record • Best possible analyses of the atmosphere at high spatial and Analysis of Record • Best possible analyses of the atmosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution with particular attention placed on weather and climate conditions near the surface

Needs for AOR • NWS gridded forecast preparation and verification • Mesoscale modeling • Needs for AOR • NWS gridded forecast preparation and verification • Mesoscale modeling • Dispersion modeling for transport of hazardous materials and pollutants • Homeland defense • Aviation and surface transportation • Environmental issues from coastal zone to fire management • Impacts of climate change on regional scale

A Community Meeting on Real-time and Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis: An Analysis of Record A Community Meeting on Real-time and Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis: An Analysis of Record Summit June 2004 Co-chairs: Brad Colman and John Horel • Can research and operations work together to define approaches for an analysis of record? • Are there clearly definable requirements and objectives? • Can we make a compelling business case to fund the R&D, testing, and implementation?

Issues • Real time vs. retrospective needs • How can AOR resolve detailed microclimates, Issues • Real time vs. retrospective needs • How can AOR resolve detailed microclimates, synoptic and mesoscale weather & localized severe weather? • NDFD verification needs vs. other needs • 2 -dimensional surface analysis approaches, statistical & dynamical downscaling vs. 3 -dimensional data assimilation strategies? • How can biases of underlying modeling system be minimized? • How can uncertainty be quantified and expressed to the end user? • What is possible now vs. what might be possible in a few years?

Recommendations • 1. Proceed rapidly to foster AOR program that meets diverse needs for Recommendations • 1. Proceed rapidly to foster AOR program that meets diverse needs for high spatial and temporal resolution mesoscale analyses • 2. AOR program should lead to suite of consistent products: – Provisional mesoscale analyses available within roughly 30 minutes of the valid time – Mesoscale analyses completed a day or so after the valid time – “Gold standard” AOR would be an archive-quality analysis/reanalysis • 3. Community support for an AOR project must be broadened • 4. Ongoing research and development efforts supported by other programs are critical to the future success of the AOR program: – WRF R&D – COOP modernization • 5. Mesoscale Analysis Committee (MAC) should be formed that reports to the Director of the NWS Office of Science and Technology

Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13 -14, 2004 • Recommendations for a prototype Real Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13 -14, 2004 • Recommendations for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA): – Available hourly within 30 min of valid time – Prototype products on NDFD 5 km grid must be available for testing by WFOs and other within 6 months – Analysis products for moisture, temperature, wind – Coordination with OHD and NESDIS for ppt and sky cover – Quality assurance and estimates of analysis uncertainty must be incorporated into analysis system

Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13 -14, 2004 • Proposed plan for a prototype Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13 -14, 2004 • Proposed plan for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) : – GFS/Eta model used for initial and lateral boundary conditions for hourly 20 km RUC – FSL will modify RUC postprocessing to downscale RUC 20 km grid to 5 km grid – EMC will continue development and implementation of 2 DVAR for temperature, moisture and wind – Quality assurance efforts will include cross validation and estimate of analysis uncertainty – Separate univariate analyses for ppt and sky cover. OHD and NESDIS lead efforts

Making Progress? • Coordination between NCEP and FSL efforts beginning • QPE working group Making Progress? • Coordination between NCEP and FSL efforts beginning • QPE working group meeting in San Diego • Placeholder in budget planning process for FY 06 -11 • See http: //www. met. utah. edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac. htm for updates

Comments? Send email to mac_chairs@met. utah. edu MAC Committee: • Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University Comments? Send email to [email protected] utah. edu MAC Committee: • Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University of Wisconsin Space Sciences and Engineering Center • Stanley Benjmain, Forecast Systems Laboratory • Craig Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory • Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms The University of Oklahoma • Brad Colman, Committee Co-chair NOAA/National Weather Service • Christopher Daly, Spatial Climate Analysis Climate Service Oregon State University • Geoff Di. Mego, NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction • Joshua P. Hacker, National Center for Atmospheric Research • John Horel, Committee Co-chair Department of Meteorology University of Utah • Steven Koch, Forecast Systems Laboratory • Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology • Jennifer Mahoney, Aviation Division Forecast Systems Laboratory • David Sharp, National Weather Service Melbourne Weather Forecast Office • John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Ex Officio • Andy Edman. Science & Technology Committee representative • Le. Roy Spayd. Meteorological Services Division representative • Gary Carter. Office of Hydrology representative • Kenneth Crawford. COOP/ISOS representative