May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to Planning Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand Denise Whitney: Land Use Development Christina Fera-Thomas: Traffic Flow Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008 Friday, September 12, 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to Planning Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008 Friday, September 12, 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Overview • Households as economic engines – Participate in “activities” • Budgets constrain activity levels – Multiple needs to satisfy within a budget • Activity generates travel – Travel is a derived demand • Land use attracts travel – Business location affects travel patterns Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Households are Economic Engines • Households participate in activities – Provide labor for production – Spend income to purchase goods and services • Activities generate travel – Trips to work – Trips to shop – Trips for recreation – Trips for HH production Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Consumption is 70% of Economy Labor Income Travel Demand Derived from Household Activity Buy Goods & Services Produce Consumption Goods Recreation Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Constrained by Budget • Households adapt spending patterns • Shift spending from one category to another to meet their goals • Consumer Expenditure Survey provides a look into household budgets and spending patterns Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey • Bureau of Labor Statistics sponsored • Conducted by Census Bureau annually – Diary survey – two weeks, and – Interview survey – previous three months • Used to construct the Consumer Price Index Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Budget Categories & Results • • • Housing Household operations Transportation Food Utilities Health care Apparel Entertainment Misc. Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category Housing costs include: rent, mortgage principle and interest, property tax, maintenance, and insurance. Year 2000 housing was 31% of disposable income Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category Utility costs include: electricity, natural gas, heating oil, telephone, water Year 2000 utilities were 6% of disposable income Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category Food costs include: food out of home and food at home Year 2000 was 13% of budget Year 2000 at home food was 59% of food budget, Year 2006 is was 56% of food budget Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category Transportation costs include: vehicle purchase, fuel & oil, maintenance and repair, financing, insurance, licensing Year 2000 vehicle purchase was 46%, Year 2006 it was 40% Year 2000 gas & oil were 17%, Year 2006 they were 26% Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Can be Simulated • Household surveys provide information used to create models representing regional travel patterns – Oregon Household Activity Survey 2008 • Travel demand models and traffic simulations are tools designed to represent household travel behavior – THE MODELS WORK! Analysis conducted by TPAU over ten years ago accurately predicted travel patterns we observe today Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use Affects Household Travel Households travel … to businesses to work, shop, eat… Land use patterns affect travel • Housing density • Business locations Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area) • 5200 acre site on edge of UGB • Three alternative proposals – “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21, 000 households – Two lower density alternatives with 14, 000 households • Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects? ” Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5 th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area) • 5200 acre site on edge of UGB • PLACE 3 S, an acronym for PLAnning for • Three alternative. Economic and Environmental Community Energy, proposals Sustainability, is an innovative planning method – “Blueprint” higher density alternative with that fully integrates focused public participation, 21, 000 households and design, and computer community development -assisted quantification tools (GIS) to with – Two lower density alternativeshelp 14, 000 communities households produce plans that retain dollars in • the local economy, save energy, attract jobs and Designed to evaluate “Where will the development, reduce pollution and traffic congestion and conserve are the growth go and whatopen space. effects? ” • http: //www. energy. ca. gov/places/ Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5 th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area) • 5200 acre site on edge of UGB • Three alternative proposals – “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21, 000 households – Two lower density alternatives with 14, 000 households • Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects? ” Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5 th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Higher density: 21 K households 2 Lower density scenarios: 14 K households Daily VMT: 920 K (18% - 22% lower) 7 K households placed in most likely area Person trips bike/walk/transit: 8% Daily VMT: 1120 K - 1180 K (22% - 28% higher) Person trips private auto: 91% Person trips bike/walk/transit: 4. 8% - 5. 3% DVMT per HH: 43 Person trips private auto: 93. 5% - 93. 9% DVMT per HH: 55 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Results from Sacramento Study • Higher density land use resulted in – Less VMT – Fewer emissions – More bike/walk/transit – Provided more green space Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Conclusions • Each household represents a unique set of activities and strategies designed to satisfy needs and desires • Effective transportation planning supports household activity while conserving public resources BUT • Households represent one piece of the travel puzzle – trip generators Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use Development • Business attracts activity – Workers – Customers – Shipping goods/services – Receiving goods/services • Land use patterns are determined by another set of market forces Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to Planning Denise Whitney: Land Use Development Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008 Friday, September 12, 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household & Employment Activities Need to Be Located Labor Income Buy Goods & Services Produce Consumption Goods Recreation Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin: Opportunity to Meet Market Need Property Owner Land Speculator Predeveloper (private or public) Land/Real Estate Developer Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Developers Juggle Many Considerations Public Development Team Clients: users investors buyers Market Forces Viable Location(s) Local & State Govt. Project Idea: opportunity to meet need Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Market Forces (national, regional) • Employment and industry trends • Population and demographic trends • Real estate market trends • Development trends • Capital markets • Commodities markets Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Viable Location (factors in site selection) • • Physical features Transportation Price of the land Zoning Utilities Government services/costs Local attitudes Local market forces Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development Type Industrial • • • Transportation linkages (shipping time is money) Adequate size and configuration with room to grow Utilities with sufficient capacity to handle requirements Avoiding conflicting land uses Proximity to resources and housing • Accessible and desirable location • Adequate size and configuration to meet building design and parking needs • Access to technological infrastructure Office Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development Type • Sufficient population/households with right income and demographic mix within market area • Visibility and traffic (pedestrian or auto) • Accessible site of sufficient size Retail • • Amenities such as neighborhood parks and schools Availability of transit Proximity to freeway access and/or employment nodes Proximity to shopping districts Residential Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Project Feasibility and the Bottom Line Condominium Pro Forma Retail Trade Area – Market Study Bottom Line: Does it pencil? Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
A Project Occurs Only if Pieces Come Together within Developers Planning Time Frame People Location Financing & Feasibility Market Need Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Understanding Market Forces & Development Basics Makes for More Effective Planning Incentives – Work best when project is close to being feasible and incentive can nudge it into profitable range. Zoning – Can be more effective when recognizing desirability of locations and site needs by development type. Fee Structures – That recognize developers need for certainty upfront are more likely to capture funds without inhibiting growth. Community Expectations – Can be more realistic when market influences on development/redevelopment are acknowledged. Transportation Facilities – Understanding the influence of market forces on land use and travel patterns leads to better transportation facility planning. Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to Planning Market Forces Affect Traffic Flow Christina Fera-Thomas Transportation Analyst Transportation Planning Analysis Unit September 12 th 2008 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned Facilities • Improve safety • Maintain an efficient roadway system • Meet FHWA standards and guidelines for highways on the interstate system • Provide Connectivity – Throughout the state – To local areas Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned Facilities-cont’ • Move goods and people efficiently • Consider all modes: auto, bicycle, pedestrian, rail, ect • Improve livability to communities • Support for economic prosperity and opportunities Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Overview of the Analysis Process • • Determine Study Area Collect data Develop Volumes Analyze Alternatives 40 400 855 390 85 90 405 70 35 795 45 20 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Determine Study Area • Generally larger than the project area because: – Nearby facilities may be affected – Roadways outside of immediate project area may end up being part of a build alternative Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Determine Study Area Project Area Study Area Interchange Count Locations Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Collect Data • Obtain Signal Timing Sheets • Collect field inventory – Lane/crosswalk/shoulder widths – Turn bay lengths – Detector positions – Signal Operation – Miscellaneous observations • Request Counts – Full Classification – 16 hour Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop Volumes Design Hour Volumes • Seasonally adjust (if necessary) • Apply Growth Factor (if necessary) – Historical – Model • Balance System 40 400 855 390 85 90 405 70 35 795 45 20 Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop Volumes Future Volumes/Build Volumes • Apply Growth Factor – Historical – Model – Cumulative • Balance • Create build model scenario if: – Model is available – Traffic patterns will be affected Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Analyze Alternatives • Use of Synchro/Simtraffic or comparable software • Compare performance of no-build and build alternatives to mobility standards • Determine lengths of queues and their affect on the system • Report additional performance measures Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot • Home Depot Built within the project area – First Home Depot in Model Area as well as the county • Only one other Home Improvement Superstore within the model area • Will pull trips from the entire model area and beyond – Model Scenarios will need to include Home Depot which will show: • Any increase of trips within the study area • How trips have been redistributed amongst the major roadways into the study area Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot • Model Outputs would be used to create new volumes that include the development • Analysis of the new volumes would show the affect Home Depot has on the system • Depending on the affects; the developer may be required to assist with the project costs Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot 8 Miles Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Questions? Answers: Becky Knudson Rebecca. a. knudson@odot. state. or. us Denise Whitney Denise. d. whitney@odot. state. or. us Christina Fera-Thomas Christina. a. fera-thomas@odot. state. or. us Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
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