Mauritius Meteorological Services Usefulness of the Seasonal Forecast

Mauritius Meteorological Services Usefulness of the Seasonal Forecast Mrs. Surekha Ramessur Meteorologist September 2012

Seasonal forecast • Seasonal outlooks are prepared by the MMS; it gives an insight of the expected evolution of the climate during the forthcoming season. • Method used: Analogue, statistical (SARCOF), Dynamical (NWP products) • Summer outlook: issued around mid-October (valid 1 st Nov to Mid-May) • Winter seasonal outlook: issued around mid-May

Seasonal forecast • Over the years the demand of this product has increased. • Different stakeholders in various sectors use the seasonal outlook for planning purposes. • Main users Ø Water Sectors (Water Resources Unit) Ø Agricultural Sector Ø Health sector Ø Tourism Sector

Water Sector Main concerns: • Precipitation onset • Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall • Total amount of precipitation expected for the season Importance of Water management: • Control of water supply • Control of water for irrigation

Water Sector Water Resource Management Committee: • Chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister • Weekly meeting during ‘crisis’/Monthly meeting Members • Water Resources Unit • Central Electricity Board • Meteorological Services • Ministry of Agro-Industry and Food Security • Association des Restaurateurs et Hoteliers de l’Ile Maurice

Water Sector • The committee takes stock of the weather forecast and the water levels in reservoirs and boreholes. • An integrated approach is adopted and accordingly relevant actions are taken ØPumping from boreholes depending on replenishment ØDesalination (hotels) ØWater management (water cut-off for domestic purposes)

Health Main concerns: • Amount of precipitation • Heat wave/Cold spells • Higher temperatures and humidity may increase the risk of vector-borne and waterborne diseases Depending on the expected season relevant actions are taken proactively by stakeholders. • Fumigation

Agriculture Main concerns: • Onset of precipitation • Temporal distribution of rainfall Helps in the management of water for irrigation. In Mauritius rain-fed crops are more vulnerable to climate variability and as such a good forecast helps in taking the necessary action.

An assessment of Summer 2011 -2012 OND- Slightly below normal rainfall ØJanuary 2012 - Highly defficient (34% of normal). • The 6 th driest month since 1904 (1999 driest January) ØFebruary- dry first fortnight (62% of normal) ØMarch- above normal rainfall (141%of normal)

An assessment of Summer 2011 -2012 ØForecast Below seasonal mean for OND Close to normal for JFM Generally it was forecasted that the total ppt will be close to normal for the whole season ØThe forecast was good. The total amount for the whole season (islandwise) was close to normal

An assessment of Summer 2011 -2012 Season 2012 -2012 was quite different- in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The onset of summer rain was later that expected and this had great impact on water management at national level.

An assessment of Summer 2011 -2012 • Catchment area of Mare-aux-Vacoas (largest reservoir of the island) was deficient in rainfall • Other catchment areas received normal to even above normal rainfall • There has been a shift in the rainfall maxima for the island ØSuch events has made decision makers take the

Importance of seasonal forecast ØSuch events has made decision makers realise the importance of summer/winter outlook. ØMore and more users are trying to incorporate these outlooks their respective fields.

Thank You