Mauritius African success story Origin of

“Mauritius: African success story? ” • Origin of my January trip: • part of an NBER Africa Project – to research African success cases, – funded by Gates Foundation. – I chose Mauritius because I thought it would be the most interesting case. • I am just starting my investigations. – So my thoughts are still tentative; – to be supplemented by econometrics.

There is no question that Mauritius has been a great economic success • It ranks at the top in Africa, whether by: – Judged by GDP per capita • Growth rate averaged 4. 2% over 1977 -2006 >> 0. 7% Africa) • • Level over $6, 000. (Higher in PPP terms. ) As a result, despite small size, total GDP > median average country (Zambia) – Or judged by Human Development Index • E. g. life expectancy. – Or measures of governance:

Ibrahim index of African governance (for 2006, published 2008) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. … Mauritius Seychelles Cape Verde Botswana South Africa 24. Niger … 44. Angola 45. Sudan 46. Chad 47. Congo (DR) 48. Somalia

Mauritius: “African success story? ” • One might ask: “Does it consider itself an African country? ” • Regardless, the important questions are: – Looking back: How did Mauritius achieve its success? Are there lessons for other countries? – Looking forward: Where do things stand now?

Short history of Mauritius’ development • First: Globalization at its worst? – Immediately, Europeans kill off the dodo bird ! – Initial sugar economy based on slavery. – Cholera. • Then: Globalization at its best – Movement of labor from India in 19 th century – Development of industrial sector, esp. clothing, – achieves rapid growth through exports in 1980 s.

Traditional 3 stages of development: – Commodities (sugar) – manufactures (textiles & apparel) – services (tourism, financial services, …)

How was development accomplished? • Initial conditions? were considered poor at independence. Sugar wealth? But natural resources are often a curse. • • Openness? -- Sachs view. But rejected by Subramanian who says trade policy was not liberal. • Export Processing Zone? -- Rodrik view. But EPZs failed elsewhere. • Foreign ideas, via Chinese FDI? -- Romer view. But textile & apparel success depended on preferential treatment from US & EU. • Good institutions -- Subramanian view. – Q: Does Mauritius have good institutions? E. g. tsunami warning system. 7

Initial conditions, as assessed by two Nobel Laureates • James Meade (Report to Government of Mauritius, 1961): “Heavy population pressure must inevitably reduce real income per head…That surely is bad enough in a community that is full of political conflict…the outlook for peaceful development is poor. ” • V. S. Naipaul (The Overcrowded Barracoon, 1972): ”The disaster has occurred… now given a thing called independence and set adrift, an abandoned imperial barracoon, incapable of economic or cultural autonomy…”

Geography • Small size, remoteness & tropical location are usually big handicaps in economic performance. • But Seychelles and Cape Verde are right behind Mauritius in the rankings. • Of top performers in Africa, only Botswana is not a small island country. • Of small island countries, only Comoros lacks success. • This can’t be a coincidence (3/4). 9

Ethnic composition • While Botswana is relatively homogeneous ethnically, like Japan & Sweden, • Mauritius is ethnically diverse, resembles Trinidad or Fiji. • Resemblance also to Singapore (or Hong Kong or Dubai? ): – Historically an entrepot, on trading routes – Everyone immigrated from somewhere else => • Population self-selected for initiative? • No indigenous population to resent latecomers • Avoided internal conflicts of Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Latin America… • Advantages of ethnic links to India & China (H. K. ) • Mauritius & Botswana are the only two African countries that have been continuously democratic. – Again, can’t be coincidence. Inclusiveness. 10

Whether through luck or skill, throughout its history, Mauritius has been able to adapt to changed circumstances (1) 19 th century • Abolition of slavery – Labor shortage on sugar plantations • Indentured workers came from India – Sea of Poppies, by Amitav Ghosh – Aaprivasi Ghat 11

Mauritius adapts to changed circumstances (2) At independence, 1968 • Bad initial conditions – Geography (small, remote) – Volatile monocrop (sugar) – Ethnic tensions – Population growth – Regression to mean • Distortionary trade barriers • Achieved trade-led growth anyway: – Luckily, EU compensated with preferences for sugar (ACP) & clothing (MFA). – No taxing-away of sugar • as other tropical crops in Africa. • Power of French landowners? – Links to India, China – Successful adjustment – Macroeconomic in 1982 • Competitive currency • Trade reform from 1984 12

Mauritius adapts to changed circumstances (3) “When we came to power in 2005, the situation was awful, ” Fin. Min. R. Sithanen, FT • 3 bad trade shocks • Reform program, 2006 – Lost sugar preferences, 2004 – Losing clothing market – Rise in world prices of oil and • food 2003 -08 • 2005 macroeconomics – slow growth, – large budget deficit, – balance of payments deficit – Tax reform (flat 15%) – Business facilitation Result: – Mauritius ranks even better on climate for business. – deficits down sharply by 2007. Primary d. ≈ 0. 13

Mauritius adapts to changed circumstances (4) 2008: Worst global economic crisis in 50 years • Financial crisis originated • Mauritius not yet hit by recession in 2008. in the US in 2007. • One reason: The • Decoupling was a vain government had attained a strong enough budget, hope. Recession spread & had enough foresight, globally in 2008. – if not through financial contagion, – then through lost exports. to begin easing in mid 08. • A rare true countercyclical fiscal policy ! • But the tsunami is on its way nonetheless. 14

Correlations between government spending & GDP G has beem pro-cyclical for most developing countries: rises in booms and falls in recessions; esp. commodity-exporters E. g. , Kaminsky, Reinhart, and Vegh (2004) booms of 1830 s, 1919 in Mauritius, sugar Source: 20, & 1973 -74 produced Dutch Disease: rise in public spending “of dubious economic value” V. d. Ancharaz. p. 5 => Deficits, inflation, real appreciation. 15

Conclusions • The achievements of Mauritius have been impressive – and not predictable at independence. • A small remote country needs globalization more than does any other country. • Influences of islandness, immigration, democracy, etc. ? I will try to sort out them out. • In the past, luck has played a big role, such as EU & US trade preferences.

Mauritius seeks to continue to adapt • It wants to move from tourist destination & mid-Indian Ocean financial center to become a desirable platform for investment into India and Africa. – Analogous to Hong Kong & Dubai – It has some obstacles to overcome • Lines at immigration are longer than they need be. • Internet access is inadequate (broadband). – Danger of losing tropical paradise status: • Environmental damage. • Traffic congestion in Port Louis. 17

Some sources • Ancharaz, Vinaye dey, “The effect of trade liberalization on export-oriented output and FDI: A case study of the Mauritian EPZ, 1971 -1998, ” Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Mauritius, Réduit, 2004. • • • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003, “National Institutions and the Role of the IMF, ” IMF Staff Papers. Amitav Ghosh, A Sea of Poppies, 2008. Patrik Iman and Cameila Manoiu, “Mauritius: A competitiveness assessment, ” IMF • • OECD, African Economic Outlook, Mauritius, 2008. Dani Rodrik, “Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa, ” Paper • Paul Romer, “Two Strategies for Economic Development: Using Ideas and Producing Ideas, ” ABCDE, World Bank, 1992. Jeffrey Sachs, 2003, “Institutions Don’t Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income, ” NBER WP 9490, Feb. Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner, 1997, “Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies, ” Journal of African Economies, Vol. 6, pp. 335 -76. Arvind Subramanian, “The Mauritian Success Story and Its Lessons, ” Dec. 2007 Arvind Subramanian and Devesh. Roy, “Who can Explain the Mauritian Miracle: Meade, Romer, Sachs, or Rodrik? ” in Rodrik, D. (ed. ) In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003. • • working paper, Sept. 2008 prepared for the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 1997.