Materials and the Environment Part 3 Global

Materials and the Environment Part 3 – Global Consumption Patterns: Uneven but Changing (Most recent update April 1, 2013)

The most economically developed nations are also the highest consuming nations.

As a result, only a few nations consume by far the greatest share of the world’s raw materials.

Selected Raw Material Consumption in the United States and Western Europe Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal (http: //www. grida. no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857. aspx)

Consumption of Selected Raw Materials Compared to Global Population France, Germany, Japan, UK, & United States (5 countries) Rest of World (188 countries) Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal (http: //www. grida. no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857. aspx)

As shown in the next several graphics, developing nations are beginning to consume a greater share of the world’s resources as their economies expand.

% of world consumption % of world population Steel Alu minum per 1990 2000 2010 Developed Countries* 12. 1 11. 3 10. 7 46. 8 51. 3 26. 6 68. 4 63. 9 44. 8 66. 9 58. 1 42. 6 Developing Countries 87. 9 88. 7 89. 3 53. 2 48. 7 73. 4 31. 6 36. 1 55. 2 33. 1 41. 9 57. 4 % of world consumption Lead Zinc Nickel Industrial Wood 1990 Developed Countries Developing Countries 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 69. 6 63. 3 41. 8 60. 9 55. 3 36. 4 70. 9 69. 1 58. 8 66. 0 62. 1 52. 6 41. 2 34. 0 37. 9 47. 4 30. 4 36. 7 58. 2 39. 1 44. 7 63. 6 % of world consumption Cement Petroleum 1990 2000 2010 Developed Countries 34. 6 25. 3 11. 3 56. 8 51. 4 49. 0 Developing Countries 65. 4 74. 7 88. 7 43. 2 48. 6 51. 0 29. 1 29. 9 Note that the developed countries, that in 2010 comprised 10. 7% of world population, consumed a much greater percentage of critical resources. * Developed countries include the United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.

Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by Developed Nations* Percent of world population, 2010 (10. 7%) Note that the portion of critical materials consumed by developed nations is decreasing as developing nations make economic gains. * Developed nations included in consumption statistics are the United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and S. Korea.

Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by the United States Percent of world population, 2010 (4. 5%) 2010 consumption in the U. S. was very much affected by the great recession. Will rebound. Source: U. S. Geological Survey (2013); U. S. Dept. of Energy, EIA (2013).

The shift in global consumption patterns is led by China, but is by no means limited to developments in China alone.

China’s Gross Domestic Product Billions of Current U. S. Dollars (Expressed in Current $US) Source: World Bank, 2013.

China Consumption of Critical Materials 1990 -2010 (percent of world consumption) Material 1990 2000 2010 Steel 8. 9 19. 7 43. 4 Aluminum 5. 4 12. 8 40. 1 Copper 4. 9 13. 0 39. 2 Nickel 4. 2 6. 6 29. 3 Lead 7. 4 9. 0 44. 1 Zinc 8. 7 15. 0 42. 5 16. 8 35. 2 56. 0 Wood (industrial wood) 7. 1 14. 7 16. 4 Petroleum 3. 6 6. 3 11. 1 Cement Sources: USGS, IISI, OECD, USDOE-EIA (2013)

Raw material consumption patterns will continue to shift as nations now classified as developing become increasingly economically developed.

India China Trillion US $ GDP* in the U. S. vs. Other Economies, 2005 * GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s borders. Values expressed in purchasing power parity. Source: International Monetary Fund (2006)

Trillion US $ GDP in the U. S. vs. Other Economies, 2010 Source: International Monetary Fund (2013)

Trillion US $ Projected GDP in the U. S. vs. Other Economies, 2030 Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)

Trillion US $ Projected GDP in the U. S. vs. Other Economies, 2050 Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)

This translates to increasing consumption of both goods and raw materials in countries that have long been characterized by low per-capita consumption and large populations. Fierce competition for the world’s raw materials is certain, and already gaining momentum.

So, in this environment, how is the U. S. positioned for the future?

The U. S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials used to support our economy and lifestyle.

The U. S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials used to support our economy and lifestyle. • • Most metals Portland masonry cement Petroleum (the basis for most plastics) Wood and wood products

In the slides that follow, net import dependence is shown. Principal suppliers are also listed in order of importance, with the most important supplier listed first (to the left), the next most important to the right of that, and so on.

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material Niobium Manganese Graphite Strontium Bauxite/Alumina Fluorspar Yttrium Thallium Rubidium Asbestos Quartz (crystal) Thorium Tantalum % Imported 100 100 100 100 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Brazil, Canada, Germany, Russia S. Africa, Gabon, China, Australia China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil Mexico, Germany Jamaica, Brazil, Guinea, Australia Mexico, China, S. Africa, Mongolia China, Japan, France, UK Russia, Germany, Kazakhstan Canada, Zimbabwe China, Japan, Russia France, India, Canada, UK China, Germany, Kazakhstan, Australia

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material % Imported Arsenic (trioxide) 100 Indium 100 Rare earth metals 100 Cesium 100 Mica (natural) 100 Iodine 99 Gallium 99 Gemstones 98 Germanium 90 Bismuth 89 Diamond (dust, grit) 89 Platinum Group 88 Antimony 87 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Morocco, China, Belgium China, Canada, Belgium, Japan China, France, Estonia, Japan Canada China, Brazil, Belgium, India Chile, Japan Germany, Canada, UK, China Israel, India, Belgium, S. Africa China, Belgium, Russia, Germany China, Belgium, UK China, Ireland, S. Korea, Russia Germany, S. Africa, UK, Canada China, Mexico, Belgium

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material % Imported Rhenium 87 Stone (dimension) 85 Potash 83 Lithium 80+ Vanadium 80 Barium (Barite) 78 Silicon carbide 76 Tin 76 Cobalt 75 Silver 75 Zinc 73 Titanium (sponge) 69 Titanium concentrates 68 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Chile, Netherlands, Germany Brazil, China, Italy, Turkey Canada, Belarus, Russia Argentina, Chile, China S. Korea, Canada, Austria, Czech Rep. China, India China, Brazil, Vietnam, Norway Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia, China, Norway, Russia, Canada Mexico, Canada, Peru, Chile Canada, Peru, Mexico, Ireland Kazakhstan, Japan, China, Russia S. Africa, Australia, Canada, Mzambique

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material % Imported Peat 63 Chromium 60 Palladium 56 Magnesium Cpds 53 Nickel 47 Ferrosilicon 42 Nitrogen (fixed) 41 Petroleum 40 Garnet (industrial) Gold Tungsten Magnesium Metal 39 36 36 35 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Canada S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Russia, China Russia, S. Africa, UK, Norway China, Canada, Brazil, Austria Canada, Russia, Australia, Norway China, Russia, Venezuela, Canada Trinidad/Tobago, Russia, Canada, Ukraine Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, Nigeria, Mexico India, Australia, China, Canada Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Peru China, Bolivia, Canada, Germany Israel, China, Canada

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material % Imported Copper 35 Perlite 27 Lumber (softwood) 25 Sulfur 24 Salt 22 Beryllium 21 Mica (scrap/flake) 20 Vermiculite 20 Gypsum 13 Phosphate rock 13 Aluminum 13 Iron and steel 9 Cement (Portland/msry) 6 Pumice 5 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Chile, Canada, Peru, Mexico Greece Canada, Chile, Sweden, Germany Canada, Mexico, Venezuela Canada, Chile, Mexico, The Bahamas Russia, Kazakhstan, Japan Canada, China, India China, S. Africa, Australia, Brazil Canada, Mexico, Spain Morocco, Peru Canada, Russia, China, Mexico Canada, EU, China, Mexico Canada, China, S. Korea, Mexico Greece, Mexico, Iceland, Montserrat

Net U. S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/ d/ Material % Imported Diamond (industrial) 3 Lime 1 Stone (crushed) 1 Principal Foreign Sources (2007 -10) Botswana, S. Africa, Russia, Nambia Canada, Mexico, The Bahamas a/ U. S. Geological Survey. 2013. Mineral Commodity Summaries - 2012. b/ Principal foreign sources arranged by most important supplier to the left, next most important to the right of that, and so on. c/ Petroleum data from U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 2013 (February). d/ Data for construction lumber from RISI, Random Lengths, 2012, 2013.

The United States is also a net importer of durable and nondurable goods of all kinds.

Europe and Japan are in much the same situation.

The U. S. is a massive net importer partly because many economically accessible resources lie outside U. S. borders. . .

. . . but also because environmental regulations and policies have created barriers to domestic production and increased associated costs.

The net result is a shift of environmental impacts linked to our consumption to locations outside of the U. S.

Beyond ethical questions, there is a developing problem.

While supplies of most raw materials are unlikely to physically run out, there are growing concerns about availability.

In a 2011 global survey of 69 leading companies, resource scarcity was identified as a major concern in all industries represented. Source: European Technology Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources. 2012. (http: //eurogeosurveys. org/assets/ETPSMR/SF 2012/1. The%20 contribution%20 of%20 ETP %20 SMR%20 -%20 Henryk%20 Karas. pdf)

The European Environment Agency described concerns this way: “The world's stocks of natural resources are already decreasing. A larger and richer global population with increasing consumption needs will make bigger demands for many things including food, water and energy. In the future, rising demand falling supply could intensify global competition for resources. . .

The European Environment Agency described concerns this way: . . . Growing long-term scarcity of minerals and metals may induce us to turn to sources hitherto deemed uneconomic. Expanding mining has several environmental effects, including changing landscapes, polluting water and generating waste. Poorer quality mineral reserves may mean that exploiting such sources is less energy efficient. ” Source: European Environment Agency. 2011. (http: //www. eea. europa. eu/signals 2011/earth-2050 -global-megatrends/intensified-global-competition-for-decreasing)

Summary • Per capita consumption of raw materials is far • • • higher in the most economically developed countries than in countries that are not as economically advanced. The global economy is changing rapidly, with many traditionally low-income countries now experiencing rapid economic growth. Economic expansion is affecting regions of the world characterized by very large populations. Consumption of raw materials of all kinds is increasing very rapidly.

Summary • Several high consuming countries, including the • • United States, Japan, and European countries, are massive net importers of raw materials. While the world is unlikely to literally run out of most raw materials, there are questions about future availability in a world of increasing competition for those resources. As global competition for raw materials increases, countries may have to form new alliances and relationships.

Summary • Appropriate technology development relative to resource development, use, and recycling will be essential. • Reconsideration of domestic policies, to • potentially allow greater access to domestic resources, will likely be needed. Environmental and social concerns will increase as raw material consumption rises.