Mark Godfrey What s in it for agriculture

© Mark Godfrey What’s in it for agriculture and forests? Bill Stanley, The Nature Conservancy

Will farmers and foresters benefit? “Our analysis demonstrates that the economic opportunities for farmers and ranchers can potentially outpace - perhaps significantly - the costs from climate legislation. ” - USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, July 22, 2009

How might landowners benefit? - New biofuel or wind power markets - Financial incentives for renewable energy and agricultural emissions reductions ( $75 million to $100 million annually from 2012 -2016). - Offsets (about $1 billion per year in 2015 -20 to almost $15 -20 billion in 2040 -50 gross revenue).

The offset concept http: //www. treehugger. com/carbon-offsets-suzuki. jpg

Offsets in Cap-and-Trade EPA (prints allowances equal to cap) Allowances to emit CO 2 Offsets = Additional Allowances ©Scott Warren

Why offsets are popular - Helps to keep costs down - Builds political support by expanding beneficiaries - Can provide benefits beyond carbon, such as water quality and habitat

Some potential land-based offset activities - Improved forest management - Afforestation (tree planting on crop or grazing land) - Conservation tillage or other soil carbon management - Methane management from cattle lots

A TNC Ohio Project Example: Afforestation at the Edge of Appalachia - 500 acres - 75, 000 tons of CO 2

Likely sources of offsets in the U. S.

Will this promise be delivered? - USDA tasked with identifying eligible land-based activities. - the offsets must come from “additional” projects that would no have occurred without the additional incentive an offset credit creates - Offsets must be quantifiable, verifiable, transparent and enforceable. - Must be “permanent” or at least very long term. Farmers may need to make commitments for up to 100 years, or buy replacement credits.

Summary - Offsets are important to getting political support, and lowering costs of cap-and-trade. - They offer potentially huge economic opportunities for farmers and other landowners. - Land-based activities can also help us to protect water quality and habitat. - However, offsets must meet rigorous standards and require commitments that may not be acceptable to many landowners.

Thank you. © Mark Godfrey Bill Stanley The Nature Conservancy bstanley@tnc. org Lucy Miller-TNC