Marine environmental awareness course Emissions to air

Marine environmental awareness course Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Name • Date and Place

Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents 1. Intro climate change 2. The Earth’s climate system 3. Is the climate changing? 4. What’s causing this? Man or nature? 5. What are the consequences? 6. The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 2 Illustration and photo credits: UNEP - GRID Arendal / Green Award Foundation

1. Climate change definition ‘Any change in global temperatures and precipitation over time due to natural variability or to human activity’ IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) § § Global warming can be part of climate change ‘Weather’ is not the same as ‘climate’ 3

2. The Earth’s climate system: gases in our atmosphere Greenhouse gases 4 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere (greenhouse effect) 1. 2. 3. 4. 40% of solar radiation reaches Earth solar radiation reflected by clouds and aerosols (natural and human sources) Earth radiates heat back into space greenhouse gases (natural and human sources) trap part of this heat 5 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

Not every green house gas is equal. Climate effects of a greenhouse gas depend on: 1. Ability to absorb heat Greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Hydrofluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons Sulphurhexafluoride symbol CO 2 CH 4 N 2 0 HFC PFC SF 6 Global warming potential 1 21 310 140 – 11, 700 6, 500 – 9, 200 23, 900 2. how long gas remains in the atmosphere Lifetime (years) variable 12 114 1. 4 – 270 740 – 50, 000 3200 6 Source: IPCC/TEAP 2005

Focus is on CO 2 because humans emit a lot of it (high quantities) CO 2 represents 77% of total human-based green house gas emissions • while accounting for differences in Global Warming Potential, life time, and absolute quantities 7 Illustration credits: IPCC Climate change 2007 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Figure SPM 1 Note: this is inset of original larger Figure

3. Change: temperatures are rising, snow and ice are melting, and sea levels are rising 8 Illustration credits: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate change 2007 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Figure SPM 1

Ten changes in a warming world: all happening NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 9 Illustration credits: NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

4. Cause? Three ways how air temperatures can change: Changes in power of sun Changes in amount of GHG Changes in clouds / aerosols 10 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

IPCC 2007: “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human-based greenhouse gas concentrations. ” Changes in power of sun Changes in amount of GHG Changes in clouds / aerosols 11 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

More greenhouse gases enhance the greenhouse effect: average temperature rises 12 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

Since 1950, human-based green house gases have had the biggest influence on climate change Accounting for the fact that: - there also natural sources of green house gases - Solar radiation has changed as well - Aerosols / cloud formation also play a role 13 Photo credits: J. Meehan, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Atmospheric levels of green house gases increased strongly since the 1750’s 14 Illustration credits: Forster et al. 2007 (chapter 2, working group 1, IPCC 2007), Frequently Asked Question 2. 1, Figure 1

Looking even further back in time: current CO 2 levels extremely high 15 Illustration credits: NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents 1. Intro climate change 2. The Earth’s climate system 3. Is the climate changing? 4. What’s causing this? Man or nature? 5. What are the consequences? 6. The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 16 Illustration and photo credits: UNEP - GRID Arendal / Green Award Foundation

5. Future developments and consequences very uncertain § Due to complexity of biophysical processes on Earth • Many processes happen at the same time • Some processes accelerate global warming, others slow it down § Recap: there is scientific consensus about: • climate is changing • human activities are playing a role (greenhouse gases) 17

Temperatures predicted to increase further (but how much. . ? ) 18 Illustration credits: IPCC 2007: WG 1 -AR 4

Extreme weather conditions expected to occur more frequently Climate refugee 19 Photo credits: NASA Earth Observatory Collection / Mohammad Rakibul, Marine Photobank

Changes in distribution and behavior of animal and plant species across the globe § § This can interfere with timing of interlinked biological processes Species decline or may even become extinct puffin cod Polar bear 20 Photo credits: Donna Dewhurst, US Fish and Wildlife Service / Peter van der Wolf, Ecomare / Kathy Crane, NOAA Arctic Research Program

Flooding of land-areas Bangladesh maldives 21 Photo credits: Jashim Salam / NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U. S. /Japan ASTER Science Team (both at Marine Photobank )

Human health consequences Examples: § injury due to extreme weather events (e. g. heat exhaustion) § changes in geographical distribution of diseases Malaria mosquitos 22 Photo credits: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Consequences for the marine environment Increased CO 2 storage in oceans: Ocean acidification § Negative impacts shell-forming organisms Increased sea water temperatures: Coral bleaching § corals release their algae § deadly if prolonged Phytoplankton declines Lower nutrient supply Bleached coral phytoplankton 23 Photo credits: David Burdick, NOAA / Dr. Yaqin "Judy" Li, Milford Laboratory/NEFSC, NMFS/NOAA

Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents 1. Intro climate change 2. The Earth’s climate system 3. Is the climate changing? 4. What’s causing this? Man or nature? 5. What are the consequences? 6. The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 24 Illustration and photo credits: UNEP - GRID Arendal / Green Award Foundation

6. Worldwide, international shipping emits 2. 7% of human-based CO 2 by burning of fossil fuels § § § That’s 870 million tons A relatively low contribution ~ 90 % of all world trade shipping However, attention also on shipping, because: • these emissions comparable to those of a major national economy (ICS 2009) • international shipping produces more CO 2 than all air transport 25 Illustration credits: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009

Shipping produces relatively little CO 2 per traveled distance of transported cargo However: § § not all individual ships have better CO 2 efficiency than other transport modes with increased speed of ships (containers and ferries) CO 2 efficiency is lowered 26 Illustration credits: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009

Contribution of shipping to CO 2 emissions expected to increase in the future IMO (International Maritime Organization): § ‘by 2050, in the absence of policies and regulations, CO 2 emissions from international shipping may become two or three times higher than current levels’ Because • world economy and global trade are growing • reefer connections consume more and more fuel Also, CO 2 emissions on land are reduced faster than on sea § result = larger relative contribution 27

Regulations § Emissions to air: MARPOL Annex VI, no regulations CO 2 -emissions (yet) § Current policies voluntary and interim: • Labeling energy efficiency newly designed ships • operational plans for ‘using fuel wisely’ for new and existing ships § Future (? ) market-based instruments working with emission-rights (Maritime Emission Trading Scheme) 28 Illustration credits: Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat (Airclim)

Operational measures voyage optimization: § planning ahead to limit the ship’s speed so that it will enter the harbor just in time. § Slow steaming reduces CO 2 emissions Ecospeed kg of fuel per nautical mile weather planning: § Adjusting to / making clever use of wind and currents (nautical miles per hour) 29 Illustration credits: Pro. Sea

Technical measures Ulstein X-bow versus normal bow § designing energy efficient ships • e. g. by changing the shapes of hulls and propellers § Using alternative power sources • low carbon fuels (e. g. LNG) • fuel cells • Renewables: solar, wind, tidal energy 30 Credits: Illustration: Ulstein – photos: Anthony Veder / Skysails

Combined technical and operational measures reduce ship emissions of CO 2 as much as 25– 75% below current levels 31 Source: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009