Management Foundation Areas n n CIS 679 Management

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Management Foundation Areas n n CIS 679 Management of Information Systems New Jersey Institute of Technology Second set of notes for course n Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff n (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 1

Management Foundation Areas n n n n n Philosophy and Management History of Management Theory Organizational Structures Objectives & Effectiveness Human Resources Paradoxes, Tradeoffs & Compromises Organizational Innovation Group & Human Processes References (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 2

Classification summary n n n Method of evidence generation Psychological type Class of problem Organizational context Individual styles Psychological types and dimensions Organizational structures Organizational objectives and goals Information value and utility Multiple perspective Other significant factors (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 4

Leibnizian inquiry n n Truth in structure of model Independent of data Deductive in nature Questions n n What is the rational justification? How was it deduced and is it precise? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 8

Kantian inquiry n n n Truth relative Different inquiries Best utilizes data Best serves objectives Questions n n n What is the alternative views? What data is obtainable? What model can use the data? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 12

Hegelian inquiry n n n Truth conflictual Best inquiry to derive opposing alternatives Questions n n What is the opposite view? What is the synthesis from the opposing views? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 14

Singerian inquiry n n Truth pragmatic Examine history and objectives Feedback to formulation of inquiry Questions What is the right question? How do we change the process to be better? n How do the inquirers influence the process? n n (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 16

Reality construction n n Truth virtual Tribe negotiates truth Religious truths & Beliefs Questions n n n What do we share as a belief? What can we construct as a reality? How do we market this? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 18

NEGOTIATED REALITY DELPHI Consumer Categories tailored to product Early Adapters n New wealth n Shiny blacks n First nighters n Forever young n Ecological fanatics n Where n What n What do they live? do they read? do they watch on TV? do they eat? typical vacations do they take? other characteristic behaviors? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 20

INQUIRY OBJECTIVES n n n LOCKEAN: Consensus, validation of subjective data LEIBNIZIAN: Causality, model, structure, procedures KANTIAN: Relative truth, comparisons, cost/benefit HEGELIAN: Conflict exposure & exploration, synergy out of conflicting views SINGER: Values, interests, goals, pragmatics, psychological attitudes, beliefs HEIDEGGER: Reality construction, social engineering, organizational behavior (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 21

Validation Dimensions METHODS PHILOSOPHYEXAMPLE TOOL Group Voting Deductive Leibnizian Inappropriate Inductive Lockean Deterministic by consensus Relative Kantian Deterministic by plurality Negotiated Conflictual Heidegger Advisory for compromise Merleau-Ponty Hegel Advisory for exploration Pragmatic Singer Advisory for method (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 22

Before Information Systems & Virtuality Models & Representation Design Implementation Measurement Testing Experimentation Mental Models Physical Reality Validation Learning Observations Conceptualization Social Processes Metaphors & Theories (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 23

After Information Systems & Virtuality Models & Representation Observations Conceptualization Social Process Learning Mental Models Experimentation Validation Virtual Systems Measurement Design Testing Implementation Metaphors & Theories (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 24

Before Virtuality I n n Mental Models are the individuals internal representations of an understanding of the external world. Models & Representations are explicit and formal descriptions and/or simulations that can be mutually understood and shared among knowledgeable individuals. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 25

Before Virtuality II n n Metaphors and Theories are the abstractions and analogies that guide our formulation of understandings and our design of models and representations. Physical Reality is what provides us various forms of feed back that indicate how good are the other categories. This is the classic process of scientific validation (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 26

After Virtuality I n n n Conceptualization is now one of creating or implementing models that can run in a computer (virtual environment). Theories are designed to match (validate the models against the conceptualization Experimentation is now only agreement with our original mental models (preconceptions). (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 27

After Virtuality II n n In effect reality becomes what we negotiate it to be. There is no longer an physical world to compare it to for validation. It is an implicit result and not a fundamental construct in the process. The computer system becomes the template for regulating the real world behavior of people and organizations. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 28

After Virtuality III n n The information system becomes a prescriptive control system and determines reality. Virtuality is the potential for a Virtual System to become part of the real world. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 29

Classes of Problems n n n Programmed Structured n Decisions under certainty n Decisions under risk n Decisions under uncertainty Semi-structured n Much subjective data Unstructured n Conflicts n Unknown relationships Wicked n Value differences n Unks unks (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 30

Problem Solving Characteristics n n n Links and Nodes: implicit or explicit Data and Information: subjective or objective Any individual can start anywhere and go in any direction. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 32

Examples of Group Problem Solving Tasks I DEDUCTIVE n. Well Structured: What salary to offer a new employee? n. Semi Structured: When to announce a new product? n. Unstructured: How to reduce a budget and/or costs? n. Wicked: Whether to cut a loss through termination of a product? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 34

Examples of Group Problem Solving Tasks II INDUCTIVE n. Well structured: Setting the price of a new product. n. Semi structured: Conducting a review of an on going project. n. Unstructured: Choosing whom to hire as a new employee. n. Wicked: Choosing which good employee to have to fire in a cut back. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 35

Examples of Group Problem Solving Tasks III RELATIVE n. Well structured: Which computer to buy? n. Semi structured: Which investment to make? n. Unstructured: What new product to develop? n. Wicked: Whether to acquire another company? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 36

Examples of a Group Problem Solving Task IV NEGOTIATED n. Well structured: Negotiating a business contract. n. Semi structured: Deciding future strategy for a company. n. Unstructured: Union - management negotiations. n. Wicked: Creating a new commercial standard. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 37

Examples of Group Problem Solving Tasks V CONFLICTUAL n. Well structured: A budget dispute (e. g. , who gets limited resources). n. Semi structured: A court case. n. Unstructured: Setting a new policy (e. g. what business the company is in) n. Wicked: Resolving an international or religious dispute (e. g. belief conflicts). (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 38

Examples of Group Problem Solving Tasks VI PRAGMATIC Well structured: How to go about reorganizing. n Semi structured: How to go about choosing a candidate for office. n Unstructured: How to go about choosing a career. n Wicked: How to go about choosing a mate. n (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 39

Organizational Management Theories I n Scientific Management, 1911, Taylor n n Time and motion studies, production maximization, task specialization, Lockean Principles of Management, 1916, Fayol n First “complete” inductive theory, based upon rules, division of work, clear authority, stability, initiative, esprit de corps, Leibnizian (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 41

Organizational Management Theories II n Human Relations, 1933, Mayo n n Sociological concepts and emotional factors, satisfied workers, productivity through worker satisfaction and morale, Lockean Decision Making & Information Management, 1947, Simon n Bounded rationality, output efficiency criterion, rational development of goals, Relative Kantian approaches (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 42

Organizational Management Theories III n n Socio-technical, 1951, Bamforth, Trist n Joint considerations, enterprise as open system, degree of social/technical fit, congruence of internal process (process reengineering), Kantian, Hegelian Strategic Management and Design, 1962, Chandler n Structure follows strategy, vertical and horizontal integration, adaptation, Normative orientation, Strategic relevance o IS, Kantian, Negotiated Reality, Singerian (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 43

Organizational Management Theories IV n n Human Resources, 1961, 1967, Mcgregor, Likert n Productive workers in professionals and management, cohesion, loyalty, open communications, participative management, conflicts of personal goals and organizational goals, Lockean, Hegelian, Singerian Contingency Theory, 1967, Lawrence, Lorsch n Organizational design based upon environmental factors, no single best way, avoiding errors, understanding risks, leadership, software development, evaluation of IS, Singerian (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 44

Organizational Management Theories V n Population Ecology, 1977, Hannan, Freeman n Environmental determinism, Darwinian, luck, timing, survival, life cycle importance, strategy, Kantian, Singerian (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 45

Organizational Management Levels n n Strategic and/or executive management n Object and goal setting Management planning n Resource determination n Resource allocation Management control, tactical management n Priority setting n Task assignment n Resource utilization Operational control, administrative n Line decisions n Task accomplishment n Monitoring (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 46

Marketplace n n n n Decentralized Contractual tasks Bidding System Earnings determine management Free enterprise incentives People as economic entities Knowledge based (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 54

Virtual Organization I Premise One: n A virtually organized task consists of n 1. abstract requirements n 2. concrete satisficers n 3. (re)allocation procedure (switch) n 4. A ‘satisficing criteria’ usually based upon goals or objectives to satisfy. n The switch assigns satisficers to requirements according to the satisficing criteria. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 55

Virtual Organization II Premise Two: n Meta management is the management of a virtually organized task. n Five major activities n 1. Analyzing abstract requirements n 2. Determining concrete satisficers n 3. Tracking allocations n 4. Maintaining/revising the allocation procedure n 5. Reviewing satisficing criteria (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 56

Virtual Organizations III Premise Three: n A virtual organization is a goal-oriented enterprise operating under meta management n What is new? Meta management as standard operating procedure. n No direct line decisions need to be made any longer. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 57

Virtual Organizations IV Example: Automobile Manufacturer: Assembly n Abstract requirements: components n Concrete satisficers: suppliers n Switching: changing suppliers n Satisficing criteria: cost/quality relation (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 58

Virtual Organizations V Example: Bank: Portfolio Management n Abstract requirements: investment instruments (stocks, bonds, etc. ) n Concrete Satisficers: Specific stocks, bonds, etc. n Switching: substituting one stock or bond for another n Satisficing criteria: maximize return for given level of risk. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 59

I. When is a different organizational model useful? n n Goal model: Goals are clear, measurable, consensual System resource model: A clear connection exists between inputs and performance. Internal Process Model: A clear connection exists between organizational process and performance. Strategic Constituencies Model: Constituencies have powerful influence on the organization. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 62

II. When is a different organizational model useful? n n Competing Values Model: Organization is unclear about its own criteria or criteria are changing Legitimacy model: Survival or decline is of concern Fault Driven Model: Criteria of effectiveness are unclear or strategies fo improvement are needed. High Performing Systems model: Comparisons among similar organizations are desired. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 63

Organizational Orientation n n n Flexibility/adaptation Planning & Goal setting Internalization of organizational goals Role and Norm Congruence Managerial interpersonal sills Training & Human Development emphasis (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 68

Observations on Criteria n n n Never a single criteria for any given situation Mix must be determined for the given situation Danger of reductionism of criteria within organizations Criteria must be linked through levels of application Different Organizations for different purposes (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 70

Human Resource Function Equity, stability and initiative, esprit de corps, productivity through worker satisfaction, satisfaction through attention to needs, employee satisfaction, cohesion, loyalty, openness, productivity through people (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 71

Integrative Function Clear authority and discipline, unity of command direction, order, congruence of internal processes, Efficient information processing, Communication, Internal equilibrium, Efficiency through economies of scale, Simple structure, Simple rules (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 72

Adaptive Function Structure/strategy congruence, organizational growth, environmental control, flexibility/adaptation, differentiation errors, integration errors, organization/environment fit, timely implementation of change, leadership/contingency fit, adjustment to external conditions, bias for action, close to the customer (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 73

Goal-Attainment Function Product maximization, Cost minimization, Technical excellence, Optimal use of resources, task specialization, division of work, Rational goal development, Competitive attainment, Productivity, Survival, Return on investment, Attainment of objectives, Profitability (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 74

Information value and utility n Classical school n n n Behavioral school n n Inherent in content Information coding Differs from receiver to sender Transactional understanding Discourse analysis Decision theory school n n Value relative to environment Opportunity costs & regret (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 75

Approaches to Systems Objectives n. Automation n Reduce people n Eliminate jobs time n. Productivity n Increase quantity quality n. Opportunity n Do new things n Do things differently n & Better (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 76

Multiple Perspectives n n n n 1. Technology 2. Physical Environmental Setting 3. Socio-technical Setting 4. Techno-personal Setting 5. Organization Actors & Stakeholders 6. Individual Actors & Stakeholders 7. Political Action between organization and individuals 8. Decisions and Policies (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 77

Multiple Perspectives Alternative n Individual view n n Organizational view n n Group behavior, moral Technological view n n Tasks, objectives, goals Social System view n n Actors, stakeholders Scientific, engineering Management view n Efficiency, Feasibility (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 78

Organizational View n n n n Identification of the pressures in suppor of and opposition to the technology. Acceptance process for technology Understanding how to gain Organizational support Understanding consequences/impacts of technology Avoidance of uncertainty Developing coalitions Virtuality (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 80

Personal Perspective View n n n Identifying Individuals Intuition, Leadership and Self Interest The role of the participation/political process Rationality & Maslow hierarchy of needs Power, influence, dominance Fear of Change (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 81

Organizational Objectives I n n n n Material resources – oil, metals Cost minimization - distributors Performance maximization – technology Sales maximizing – retail sales Services – professional firms Physical – health care Mental – recreational (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 82

Organizational Objectives II n n n n Social betterment – charities, government Capital goods – manufacturers Distribution – trucking Finance – banks Information – publishers Protection – fire, police, insurance Administration – brokers (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 83

Management styles Concern for People Production. Management Jargon High Management Medium High Low High Management Low (WIB) Team Conservative Country Club Task (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff Impoverished 85

Management styles Roles of Systems Analyst n n n Team management: SA is catalyst Conservative: SA as committee member Country club: SA ordered around Task management: SA orders others Impoverished: SA is ignored (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 86

Herzberg's motivation/hygiene theory n Motivators (job content) n n n Achievement: pride in a job Recognition: praise Work: interesting & challenging Responsibility: carrying out tasks Advancement: mobility Hygiene factors (job context) n n Company policy & administration Interpersonal relations Supervision Salary and working conditions (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 87

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs n 1. Physiological n n 2. Safety n n social, tribal 4. Esteem n n physical risk, freedom risk 3. Love & belonging n n starving, freezing recognition 5. Self actualization n doing your best (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 89

Hawthorn experiments 1 n Productivity increases as a result of attention n n 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Feeling of importance Team spirit Common objective Pleasant environment Friendly supervision (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 90

Hawthorn experiments 2 n Mafia works groups: n n n 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Informal Limit on individual productivity Transgressors punished Informal leader/representative Clannish (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 91

Climate conditions n n n Quality of management Management climate Staff relation climate Quality of IS staff Quality of users Computer Literacy of Management & Users (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 92

Turnover Model 1 n Output variable n n Demographic variables n n Turnover rate Age: decreases Organizational tenure: decreases Education: increases Role stressors n n Role ambiguity (expectations): increases Role conflict (evaluation): increases (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 93

Turnover Model 2 n Career related n n Salary/benefits: decreases Promotability/mobility: decreases Career opportunities: increases Intervening variables n n Job satisfaction: decreases Career satisfaction: decreases Organizational commitment: decreases Organizational trust: decreases (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 94

Talent issue n n What are the practices and polices that will maintain outstanding technical talents in your organization? What rewards, other than salary and typical benefits, motivates those in the computer and information field? (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 95

Favorable management climate n n n Managers allowed to manage Achievement will be recognized and rewarded Enterprise and new ideas accepted Senior managers listen to those below Accountability is clear Responsibility can be delegated (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 96

Leadership characteristics in IS n n n Industry and organizational knowledge Relationships in the firm and industry Reputation and track record Abilities and skills Personal values Motivation (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 97

Management Approaches He took the wheel in a lashing roaring hurricane And by what compass did he steer the course of the ship? “My policy is to have no policy, ” he said in the early months, And three years later, “I have been controlled by events. ” Carl Sandburg, “The People, Yes” (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 98

IS Management Confusions I n n n Let the technology drag us into the future under the hidden assumption that any advance of the technology is always good. Look at the process only and use computers to make it more efficient. Ignor the goals, at least the long term ones. Try to restrict the new technology (through design, laws, regulation, etc. ) to the automation of current social systems. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 99

IS Management Confusions I n n n It is often misleading and wrong to design an information system that automates or imitates the current physical process. Optimizing efficiency of an operation may not improve effectiveness and it could reduce it. We optimize processes because quantity is easier to measure than quality (i. e. , the drunkard’s paradox of science). (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 100

Effectiveness & Paradoxes A paradox is an idea involving two opposing thoughts or propositions which, however contradictory, are equally necessary to convey a more imposing, illuminating, life related or provocative insight into truth than either factor can muster in its own right. What the mind seemingly cannot think, it must think; what reason is reluctant to express it must express. (Slatte 1968, page 4) (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 102

IS Design Variations for Desired Effectiveness Outcomes n Reduced Need for Information Processing n n n Create slack resources Create self contained tasks Increased Capacity t Process Information n n Invest in vertical information systems Create lateral relationships (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 103

Organizational Effectiveness Paradoxes I n n Big impact on IS design n Loose Coupling: wide search, initiation of innovation, functional autonomy n Tight Coupling: quick execution, implementing innovation, function reciprocity Primary concern in IS human resources n High specialization of roles: reinforces expertise and efficiency n High generality of roles: reinforces flexibility and interdependency (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 104

Organizational Effectiveness Paradoxes II n n Life time of many CIO’s average five years n Continuity of leadership: stability, long-term planning, institutional memory n Infusion of new leaders: increased innovation, adaptability and currency Big impact on IS design n Deviation amplifying process: encourages productive conflict, energize and empower organizations n Deviation reduction process: encourages harmony, consensus, trust and smooth flow of information (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 105

Organizational Effectiveness Paradoxes III n Big impact on IS design n Expanded search in decision making: wider environmental scanning, need for more information, divergence of input n Inhibitors to information overload: reduces and buggers amount of information, quicker convergence in decision making (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 106

Organizational Effectiveness Paradoxes IV n Big impact on Information flow n Disengagement and disidentification with past strategies: fosters new perspectives and innovation n Reintegration and reinforcement of roots fosters organizational identity, mission, past strategies. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 107

Principles of Paradoxes in organizations n n n n Extremity in any criterion of effectiveness creates linearity and dysfunction Synthesis is desirable but not required for excellence Paradox need not be resolved to be adaptive Effectiveness has to be situational Assessment of organizations and systems should include paradoxical criteria This view would dramatically alter data collection and analysis in most organizations A totally Hegelian view of effectiveness criteria (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 108

Organizational Innovation Problems n n n n Innovation often narrowly defined: organizational suggestion, new start up, new product, product improvement Human problem of management attention Process problem of converting ideas into practice Structural problem of part time relationships Strategic problem of leadership Is the new idea productive or useless? n Determination difficult n People become attached or invested in an idea Innovation equals perception of a new idea whether technical or social. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 110

Evolution (almost biological) of an idea n n n n Disruptive Event Solutions surface Networks galvanize Political debate Legitimization Taken for granted Decay of usefulness Outmoded state (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 111

Psychological types and dimensions n n Thinking - Feeling Sensing - Intuiting Judging - Perceiving Other dimensions n n n Dogmatism Locus of control Extroversion/introversion Abstraction Strategy search (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 112

Myers-Briggs personality types I n Judging/perceiving n Judging n Makes decisions as soon as possible n Judging type looks for goals n Perceiving n Puts it off until all information in n Interested in process (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 114

Myers-Briggs personality types II n Sensing/intuiting n Sensing n Rely on external stimuli n Need to interact n Wants everything explicit n Intuiting n Make decisions without external stimuli n Like to send work to be batched n Likes to use imagination (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 115

Myers-Briggs personality types III n Thinking/feeling n Thinking n Needs explicit logic for doing something n Reads helps and documentation before doing n Feeling n Use intuition n More inclined to trial and error (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 116

Human and Group Biases in Innovation I n n n n n What worked before will work again Solutions looking for problems Social inertia Fear of change Risk avoidance Conflicts of goals and interests (people, units) What is in fashion Not invented here syndrome Lack of individual investment in idea (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 121

Human and Group Biases in Innovation II n n n n Difficulty of dealing with complexity (not rules but theories) Whole-part relationships complexity hand off Conformity pressures / Mafia syndrome Need for crises, dissatisfaction Tension or external stress to force action (frogs experiment) People avoid negative information Negative information does not easily travel up in the organization. Impeachable micro logic often creates macro nonsense and vice versa (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 122

Complexity Bias n n n Estimating effort to do something familiar but complex humans usually too optimistic n Complexity not easily grasped is what the pieces actually are Estimating effort to do something unfamiliar but complex humans too pessimistic n Complexity not easily grasped is how to interface numerous pieces Usually translates to length of time where bias reverses itself. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 123

Characteristics of Innovative Organizations I n n n Search out most demanding customers (external relationships) Search for exceptions (data mining) Reexamine beliefs Evaluate past performance (lost opportunities) Look for problems and problem sources (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 124

Characteristics of Innovative Organizations II n n n Vigilance in extended search, intelligence gathering, surveillance Close tabs on competitors Monitoring systems in place based upon two levels n n n Current evaluation criteria Potential changes in evaluation criteria (Singerian) Vertical individual and group responsibility of idea for conception to practice (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 125

Characteristics of Innovative Organizations III n n n Do not separate R&D, Engineering and Manufacturing, and marketing Do not separate Evaluation & Design, Utility & Functionality, and Implementation Systems Champion Need for people to people transactions (“deals” The more complex the idea the more trial and error cycle n Renegotiations n Recommitment n Readministration (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 126

Solutions of Innovative Organizations n n Autonomous unit for vertical integration Redundant functions and multidisciplinary groups Requisite variety (Ashby, 1956) n System must have Internal variability to respond to external variability in order to survive as a survival seeking system. n Development group has talents to match environmental requirements. Temporal linkages (relationships of past, present, and future) (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 127

Group Problem Solving Phases n n n n Problem recognition Problem formulation Problem space representation Issues & constrains Strategy formulation Goals & objectives Policies & Processes GENERATION: Criteria, Alternatives, Benefits, Risks, Expectations EVALUATION: Consequences, estimations, voting, relationships, model structures Disagreement Exploration Feedback Commitment, cohesion & morale Roles Implementation plans Actions (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 130

Problem solving requirements n. Creativity for factors n Enumeration n. Evaluation and exploration and consensus n Exploration n. Exploring disagreement n. Relationship judgments & model formulation n. Comprehension & decision formulation n. Implementation planning (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 131

Structures that have been designed to minimize process losses n. Brainstorming (Osborne) n. Nominal Group Technique n. Delphi n. Agendas / parliamentary procedure n. Dialectical: Plan and counter-plan n. Devil’s Advocate: Plan and critique n. Focus Groups, Synectics netc (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 133

Why Procedures Work n Coordinate members’ thinking n Provide objective ground rules n Protect against bad habits n Capitalize on group strengths n Balance participation (N heads better than 1) n Surface and manage conflict n Provide Closure n Make groups reflect on process and progress n Procedures can be provided by people and/or computers n The degree of tradeoff between two choices still an evolving area of research in computer based human communications (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 134

Procedural Dimensions n Scope: Number of functions a procedure handles n Restrictiveness: Extent of limitation of group activity n Comprehensiveness: Extent to which rules are completely spelled out. n Group Control: Degree to which group manage process n Member involvement: number of members required to “operate” the procedure. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 135

Common Process Gains I n. More Information: group as a whole has A more information than any one member. n. Synergy: A member uses information in a way that the original holder did not, because that member has different information or skills. n. More Objective Evaluation: Groups are better at catching errors than are the individuals with proposed ideas. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 138

Common Process Gains II n. Stimulation: Working as part of a group may stimulate and encourage individuals to perform better. n. Learning: Members may learn from and imitate more skilled members to improve performance. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 139

Common Process Losses I n Air Time: The group must partition available speaking time among members. n Production Blocking: n Attenuation Blocking: Occurs when members who are prevented from contributing comments when they occur, forget or suppress them later in the meeting, as they seem less original, relevant or important. n Concentration Blocking: Fewer comments are made because members concentrate on remembering comments (rather than thinking of new ones) unless they can contribute them. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 140

Common Process Losses II n. Attention Blocking: New comments are not generated because members must consider to listen to others speak and cannot pause to think. n. Failure To Remember: Members lack focus on communication, missing or forgetting contributions of others. n. Conformance Pressure: Members are reluctant to criticize the comments of others due to politeness or fear of reprisals. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 141

Common Process Losses III n Evaluation Apprehension: Fear of negative evaluation causes members to withhold ideas and comments. n Free Riding: Members rely on others to accomplish goals, due to cognitive loafing, the need to compete for air time, or because they perceive their input to be unneeded. n Cognitive Inertia: Discussion moves along one train of thought without deviation because group members refrain from contributing comments that are not directly related to the current discussion. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 142

Common Process Losses IV n. Socializing: Non-task discussion reduces task performance, although some socializing is usually necessary for effective functioning. n. Domination: Some group member(s) exercise undue influence or monopolize group's time in an unproductive manner. n. Information Overload: Information is presented faster than it can be processed (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 143

Common Process Losses V n Coordination Problems: Difficulty integrating member's contributions because it does not have an appropriate strategy, which can lead to dysfunctional cycling or incomplete discussions resulting in premature decisions. n Incomplete Use of Information: Incomplete access to and use of information necessary for the successful task completion. n Incomplete Task Analysis: Incomplete analysis and understanding of task resulting in superficial discussions. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 144

Delphi method n. Structured communications tailored to the application & group by paper or computer communications n. Delphi is a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a groups of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 145

Reasons for Delphi n Subjective judgments required n Diverse backgrounds n Heterogeneity of participants n Large group required n Time availability limited n Costs of travel & shadow time n Face to face difficulties n Disagreements n Language differences n Value differences n Dominance problems n Human biases (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 146

Three participant roles: 1. A user body: expecting a product 2. Design and monitor team: designs the initial questionnaire, summarizes the returns, and redesigns the follow-up questionnaires 3. Respondent group: chosen as representative of different expertise and interests related to the task. ("Experts" e. g. Welfare mothers) (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 148

Delphi objectives I n. To determine or develop a range of possible alternatives n. To explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to differing judgments n. To seek out information which may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group n. To correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 149

Delphi objectives II n. To educate the respondent group as to the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic. n. Two or more rounds of written (usually anonymous) generation and rating of options or projections by expert groups n. Typical scales-- e. g. , Importance, likelihood, confidence in rating (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 150

Consensus is not always the objective n. Policy Delphi: explore all scenarios or alternatives, develop each one fully. n. Determine the strongest “pro” and “con” arguments for each possible course of action (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 151

Models of Decision Process I n n n Rational actor model: People make rationa decisions based upon the best possible data and decision processes Satisfying or bounded rationality model: seeking a decision that is good enough to meet a set of minimum requirements. Stakeholder model: People as individuals represent certain interests or views that may be indirect conflict with others. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 153

Models of Decision Process II n n n Bureaucratic polities, incrementalism, “muddling through” model: maximum flexibility by no planning. Relative model: Optimum decisions are not possible only the best relative decision in the particular circumstances with the information that can be obtained in the required time frame. Complexity model: Process, culture and organizational structure are key to good decision making. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 154

Models of Decision Process III n n Organizational processes model: plans and decisions are the result of well defined organizational processes. Garbage can model: what is used and done depends on what is on hand (problems, solutions, tools); those who make the least mistakes do the best. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 155

Strategic Objectives n. To make an organization: n More flexible, more responsive to customer needs n More able to adapt to rapidly changing conditions in the environment. n Consider “intangible” benefits and problems ahead of time (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 156

Subjective estimates of risks n. Must identify and estimate many kinds of risk n"risk of the vanishing status quo" (doing nothing, no change) n. Financial risk: costs exceed projected benefits n. Technical Risk: talent and resources to support technology n"Systemic risk": Success that dramatically alters the environment; causes unforeseen responses (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 157

Human Biases I Adjustment and Anchoring n Faced with large amounts of data individual focuses on a narrow and wrong sample Availability n The information most easy to obtain or on hand is used. Base Rate n n The likelihood of two events compared by the number of occurrences or most recent occurrences and not the true rate at which they occur. Also gets into difference between causal probabilities and the probabilistic calculus. 158 (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff

Human Biases II Conservatism n Failure to update estimates based upon recent but contradictory information. Data presentation context n Use of different scales, summarized as opposed to raw data, etc. Data Saturation n Premature conclusions on the basis of too small a sample. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 159

Human Biases III Desire for self-fulfilling Prophecies n Person values a certain outcome or conclusion and acquires and analyzes only information that supports it. Ease of recall n Using only the data that can be easily recalled Expectations n People place more weight on information that confirms what they expect than information that contradicts it. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 160

Human Biases IV Fact-Value confusion n Strongly held values may often be regarded and presented as facts. Fundamental Attribution Error (Success/Failure error) n Person associates success with personal ability and associates failure with poor luck in chance events. Gamblers fallacy n False assumption that unexpected occurrence of a “run” of some events enhances the probability of the occurrence of an alternative event. 161 (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff

Human Biases V Habit n Familiarity with a particular rule for solving a problem results in its reuse (having a solution looking for a problem). Hindsight n Easier to change view after the outcome has occurred than before. Leads to recent event having more influence than total sample. Illusion of Control n n n A good outcome in a chance situations may have resulted from a poor decision. Feeling of control may not be reasonable. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 162

Human Biases VI Law of Small numbers n n n People sometimes place to much weight on a small sample of data (e. g. success of last two or three products). They do not consider sample size and reliability (e. g. squeaky wheels). Order effects n n n Order in which information is presented affects retention. Things at beginning and easiest to remember. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 163

Human Biases VII Outcome of irrelevant process n n n Use of definite decision procedure can lead to confidence in result when result may be poor because of inability to evaluate outcomes of choices not examined or poor hypothesis formulation. Overconfidence n n Abundance of data sometimes leads to overconfidence in decision or in the accuracy of the data (e. g. poorly designed surveys). (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 164

Human Biases VIII Redundancy n n The more redundancy in the data, the more confidence in the data. Reference effect n People normally perceive and evaluate stimuli in accordance with their past experiential level for the stimuli. Changes in reference point often weighted more heavily than changes in the data as a whole. Regression effect n The largest observed values of observation are used without regression to the mean (e. g. the small number of stocks having high growth in a year). 165 (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff

Human Biases IX Regression to the mean n Thinking the actions based upon a negative outcome are the cause of a good outcome the next time when it is all chance (e. g. student performance). Representativeness n n Results of small samples taken as representing large samples. Selective Perceptions n n People seek information that supports or confirms their views and values. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 166

Human Biases X Spurious cues n n Accepting the occurrence of a low probability event as a more common event. Wishful thinking n n n Preference of a decision maker for a particular combination of decision and outcome. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 167

Ways to help avoid cognitive bias I n n n Sample information from a broad database Be sure to look for data on both sides of a hypothesis Encourage the use of models and consistency analysis Encourage the use of proper scaling methods Analyze past decisions and the process by which they were made for performance and outcomes Determine prior good and bad decisions and outcomes (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 168

Ways to help avoid cognitive bias II n n n Encourage effective learning and reading Use of structural frameworks to capture information and organize it Equal treatment of qualitative and quantitative information Make sure sample characteristics (size, reliability, etc. ) are associated and presented with the data. Information should be presented in several forms. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 169

Intellectual Cripple Hypothesis n n Slovic’s hypothesis is that humans may well be little more than masters of the art of self deception. Other evidence that humans are strongly motivated to understand, to cope with, and to improve themselves and the environment in which they function. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 170

References I n n n Cameron, K. E. , Effectiveness as Paradox: Consensus and Conflict in Conceptions of Organizational Effectiveness, Management Science, 32(5), May 1986, 539 -553. Churchman, C. W. , (1971), The Design of Inquiry Systems, Academic Press, New York. Hiltz, S. R. , and Turoff, M. , (1993), The Network Nation: Human Communication via Computer, Addison-Wesley, 1978. Revised Edition, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1993. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 171

References II n n Lewin, A. Y. Lewin and J. W. Minton, Determining Organizational Effectiveness: Another look, and an agenda for Research, Management Science, 32(5), May 1986, 514 -538 Linstone, H. and M. Turoff, (1975), The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Addison. Wesley, Reading Mass (chapter on philosophy) Mitroff, Ian I. & Murray Turoff, Technological Forecasting and Assessment: Science and/or Mythology? , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 5(1), 1973. Mowshowitz, Abbe, (1997), Virtual Organization, CACM, 40(9), September, 30 -37. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 172

References III n n Mowshowitz, Abbe, (1997), On theory of virtual organization. System Research, 14(4). Mowshowitz, Abbe, (1994), Virtual organization: a vision of management in the information age, . The Information Society, vol. 10, 267 -288. Scheele, Sam, Reality Construction as a Product of Delphi Interaction, in the Delphi Method Book (see above), 37 -71. Turoff, M. , (1997), Virtuality, CACM, 40(9), September, 38 -43. (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 173

References IV n n n Turoff, M. , (1986), The Rational, the Pragmatic and the Inquiry Process: Social Studies of Communication and Information Systems, Computers and Society, Volume 15, Number 4, Winter. Turoff, M. , (1985), Information and Value: The Internal Information Marketplace, Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (27: 4), July, 257 -373. Vande. Ven, Andrews, Central Problems in the Management of Innovation, Management Science 32(5), May 1986, 590 -607 (c) Copyright 2000 Murray Turoff 174