Making Transit Function More Like Automobiles Flexible Services

Making Transit Function More Like Automobiles: Flexible Services, New Technology, and Realistic Future Prospects Roger Teal Conference on Redefining, Reevaluating, and Reinventing Transit October 16, 2001

Presentation Overview • 30 Year Perspective on Public Transportation Innovation • Getting Realistic about Service Innovation: Where We’ve Been, Where We Are, Lessons for Going Forward • High Level Review of Public Transportation Technology • Importance of Platform Based Solutions for New Generation Transit Services • Future Prospects and Lessons Learned

Tomorrow Has Arrived, But Tomorrow’s Transportation Still Hasn’t • Tomorrow’s Transportation published by HUD in 1968 • In-depth vision of near future transportation services that could handle urban America’s dispersed O-D patterns • Serious, detailed studies by leading experts of day • Covered the entire gamut of plausible innovations • Focused on technology-enabled innovations • Some services required more new technology than others

Tomorrow’s Transportation • Services included in Tomorrow’s Transportation – – – – Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Dual mode highways and vehicles (automated highways) Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) Public automobile services (car sharing service) Bus rapid transit Fast transit links (high speed fixed guideway service) Flexible route transit services (route and point deviation) • Next generation transit is essentially subsumed within this vision of 1/3 century ago

Getting Realistic About Transit Service Innovation: Where We’ve Been • Many DRT systems, but ambitious service objectives abandoned • Less than 20 DRT systems in U. S. have adopted fully automated vehicle control systems with mobile data communications • Less than 10 flex route services operating nationally • Route deviation service with fully automated control system in suburban VA (PRTC) has been 7 years in the making • Europe has some sophisticated flex route and DRT operations • No PRT, little bus rapid transit, progress on automated highways

Getting Realistic About Transit Service Innovation: Where We Are • Technology has changed many facets of daily living in 30 years, but not our typical urban transportation experience • Why is next generation transit based on last generation innovations? – None of the innovations represented technology fixes – Technology immaturity circa 1970’s – Early experiments had difficulties, deterred later ventures – Demand for services greatly overestimated – Public sector entrepreneurialism is an oxymoron, replicable models are lacking for technology-enabled innovative services

Private Sector Experience Provides Insight • Express delivery companies (e. g. , Fed. Ex) have successfully implemented technologically-advanced systems • Scores of taxi and limo companies have implemented fully automated dispatch systems with mobile data communications • Taxi industry looking at next generation standards-based solutions • Problem is no longer one of technology availability/maturity • Different outcomes reflect nature of organizations, incentive structures, and access to technical expertise and capital • Technology-based service innovation is simply too hard for most transit agencies today

The Technology of Public Transportation: High Level Review • Technological components of public transportation services – Physical infrastructure--guideway/roadway, vehicles – Operating strategy – Control system • Technology based service innovation can affect any or all of these components • Flex route and DRT focus on changing the operating strategy and control system • PRT requires changes in all components, not an incremental technology

Flex Route Service Concept Flex route Fixed route Stop

DRT Service Concept 4 1 5 2 3 1 5 3 4 1 pickup 1 drop off 2

Platform Based Solutions Offer Hope • Platforms are standard (and standards-based) technologies that provide a launch pad for specific applications, • Examples of platforms – – – – HTTP/HTML TCP/IP Circuit switched telephone system, SS 7 Automobile Television Windows Palm OS GPS (global positioning system)

Platform Based Solutions Offer Hope • Platforms facilitate the continual development of industrial strength applications • Platforms eliminate the need to re-invent the solution each time, reduce the system integration burden • Platforms are “pluggable”--new/improved applications can just plug in

An Example: Platform Requirements for Flexible Transit Services • Complex control system distinguishes new generation flexible transit from conventional fixed route transit • Components of control system platform for flex route transit – Mobile data communications infrastructure – In-vehicle computer with GPS capability and driver interface – “Billing” hardware and software--optional – Vehicle control and messaging software--the pluggable application

Platform Requirements for Flexible Transit Services • One possible platform: – Handheld computers/PDAs w/GPS as mobile computers/terminals – Standard operating system in device (Palm OS, Pocket. PC) – Wireless Internet for mobile communications infrastructure – CDMA (3 G by mid-2002) for mobile data transmission – Vendor- and application-specific vehicle control and messaging software--the pluggable application component • Not just theoretical--Detroit area coordinated DRT operation seriously considering implementation based on similar platform

Future Prospects for Automobile-Like Services • Conceptually attractive because of higher level of service to user • Economically problematic due in part to tailored service delivery • Organizationally challenging to implement with the sophisticated control system needed to provide the high level of service • Flex route transit services can play more important role in future if platform-based off-the-shelf control systems can be devised • PRT will require large investments, prototypes and operational tests to demonstrate feasibility, classic chicken and egg problem

Top 5 Lessons from 30 Years of Experience with Service Innovation • Market penetration is difficult, ridership expectations must be modest • Transit agencies cannot be expected to be entrepreneurs • Technological complexity and risk must not be significantly greater than installing office computer system and applications • Platform-based technology solutions offer greatest promise for standardizing control systems for new generation services • Pre-packaged solutions with track record of success are necessary for widespread replication of innovative services