Macro Issues Philip C Zerrillo Ph D NU-

Macro Issues Philip C. Zerrillo Ph. D. NU- Day 2

What Will Drive the Performance of a Firm? w Human resources. n Attracting, developing, retaining, and dismissing. w New products. n Those that the market wants, those that allow us to enter market. w Cost control. n Activity based costing, time-based costing. w Capital management. n Steady capital flow, low cost sources, cash flow management. w Good vision. n A succinct and directed strategy, well articulated and communicated.

The Drivers of Firm Performance Managerial Performance Industry Structure Macro Environmental Factors

Firm Performance cont. w Environmental factors • • • Economy Demography Political/Legal Social Physical Technological

Demand Savings Investment Interest Employment Investment Income Employment Income

Supply v. Demand Supply Demand w w w w w Slow growth Stable Low interest rates Export growth Domestic dampening Fast growth Higher interest rates Inflation Domestic stimulus Export less important

Populations-Selected Countries

% of Population by. Age Americas- 2000

Birth Rate/Death Rate/Density

Life Expectancy / Birthrate N. A. & S. A

Life Expectancy / Birthrate EUROPE

Life Expectancy / Birthrate Asia

Population Ages Asia Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam 5 -25 (80) 33. 8 48. 5 43. 9 44. 7 52. 0 35. 7 46. 0 36. 0 43. 7 46. 2 NA 60+ (80) 14. 2 4. 8 6. 2 5. 2 4. 2 14. 3 4. 8 7. 7 6. 6 5. 4 NA 5 -25 (00) 28 45. 5 40. 8 40. 4 41. 2 29. 2 44. 8 27. 4 37. 3 36. 2 43. 8 60+ (00) 16. 3 4. 9 7. 6 6. 6 15. 6 5. 5 10. 6 9. 3 8. 1 7. 5

Life Expectancy Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam Life X M(80) 71. 9 50. 1 55. 3 54. 5 66. 0 70. 7 60. 2 69. 2 67. 0 62. 6 56. 7 Life X F(80) 78. 7 49. 3 55. 1 58. 0 70. 0 76. 9 63. 7 74. 6 71. 5 67. 4 61. 1 Life X M(00) 76. 4 60. 6 63. 6 65. 3 70. 6 75. 3 68 75. 9 69. 9 67. 9 66. 9 Life X F(00) 82 60. 8 64. 9 69. 3 75. 5 80. 7 72 80. 3 75. 9 73. 8 71. 6

Birth Rates Per 1000 1980 Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam 2000 21. 0 48. 1 36. 2 38. 1 35. 2 22. 3 38. 4 21. 2 24. 4 39. 1 39. 3 13. 9 43 28. 7 24. 6 25. 8 15. 3 31. 2 12. 7 18. 6 18. 1 28. 9

Where Population Resides

Literacy NA & SA w w w Mexico Argent Chile Brazil Peru (M) 8. 2 (F) 3. 8 4. 6 16. 7 5. 5 7. 8 3. 8 5. 0 16. 8 17

Literacy Asia w H-Kong w Japan w Thail w Korea w Philip (M) 4. 0 NA (M) 4. 0 (M). 7 (M) 5. 0 (F) (F) 11. 8 NA 8. 4 3. 3 5. 7

Literacy Europe w Greece w Italy w Spain w Swe (M) (M) 4. 8 2. 5 2. 4 (F) (F) 3. 2 2. 3 5. 8 2. 3

What Advice Would you Give to Mexico? Vietnam? China?

Why Did The US Economy Slide? w Greenspan? w Exuberance? w Taxes? w Regulation?

What Will It Take to Make It Pick Up?

What Will Happen to the Structure of Industries?

Employment (% Agriculture) Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam M(80) 7. 2 62. 5 64. 2 56. 0 31. 9 13. 2 55. 1 2. 0 37. 2 69. 8 F(80) 4. 1 8. 5 57. 5 52. 5 38. 1 6. 6 33. 9 1. 1 35. 7 75. 6 M(00) 6. 1 NA NA 53. 0 21. 5 NA 51. 6 0. 3 35. 4 59. 8 F(00) 3. 6 NA NA 56. 0 16. 8 NA 31. 0 0. 04 41. 5 60. 8

Employment (% Professional) Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam M(80) 25. 4 2. 4 3. 1 2. 7 5. 7 11. 8 3. 9 7. 9 3. 5 5. 1 F(80) 11. 0 3. 1 2. 3 3. 2 7. 0 17. 7 9. 8 9. 3 9. 1 3. 2 M(00) 11. 7 NA NA 0. 7 4. 3 NA 2. 0 9. 2 1. 5 NA F(00) 14. 4 NA NA 0. 6 5. 0 NA 2. 3 13. 3 2. 1 NA

Employment (% Manufacture) Australia Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam M(80) 44. 4 14. 6 16. 2 20. 7 26. 8 46. 6 15. 8 39. 8 25. 4 11. 8 F(80) 10. 1 30. 4 6. 8 13. 1 14. 5 17. 4 11. 0 33. 7 11. 1 7. 8 M(00) F(00) 17. 8 8. 7 NA NA 8. 7 12. 0 20. 0 29. 4 NA NA 8. 4 12. 7 26. 0 26. 1 11. 3 27. 0 10. 0 12. 2