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Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology

A Cooperative Research: USDA Forest Service International Programs The Israel Forest Authority (KKL) Curtis A Cooperative Research: USDA Forest Service International Programs The Israel Forest Authority (KKL) Curtis Flather, Ronen Kadmon, Rocky Mountain Research Center, USDA Forest Service Department of Ecology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Denis Dean, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University

Adult oaks (Quercus calliprinos) in Mt. Meron Adult oaks (Quercus calliprinos) in Mt. Meron

Herbaceous vegetation in the front, recovering trees in the back, Mt. Meron Herbaceous vegetation in the front, recovering trees in the back, Mt. Meron

Earlier stages of recovery following land abandonment: dwarf shrubs, tall shrubs, and low trees Earlier stages of recovery following land abandonment: dwarf shrubs, tall shrubs, and low trees in Mt. Meron

30 years after abandonment of pastoral cultivation in Mt. Meron 30 years after abandonment of pastoral cultivation in Mt. Meron

Mt. Meron 1945 Mt. Meron 1945

Mt. Meron 1964 Mt. Meron 1964

Mt. Meron 1992 Mt. Meron 1992

Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees

Factors that potentially affect current vegetation pattern Past vegetation: Topography: Percentage cover of Trees, Factors that potentially affect current vegetation pattern Past vegetation: Topography: Percentage cover of Trees, Shrubs, Herbaceous vegetation • Slope • Aspect • Elevation • Disturbance Agents: • Grazing • Logging • Fire Soil

Map of the study area in Mt. Meron, showing the distinct plots of different Map of the study area in Mt. Meron, showing the distinct plots of different grazing pressure, and the range of fire

Change in tree cover ± SE Change in Trees as a function of Grazing Change in tree cover ± SE Change in Trees as a function of Grazing Pressure

Regression results for the linear models 1 NS - not significant * p<0. 05 Regression results for the linear models 1 NS - not significant * p<0. 05 ** p<0. 01 *** p<0. 001

Regression results for the linear models 2 NS - not significant * p<0. 05 Regression results for the linear models 2 NS - not significant * p<0. 05 ** p<0. 01 *** p<0. 001

Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change in Mt. Meron Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change in Mt. Meron

Model input (1964 vegetation) Actual 1992 vegetation Predicted 1992 vegetation (Linear model) Model input (1964 vegetation) Actual 1992 vegetation Predicted 1992 vegetation (Linear model)

MODELS AND REALIZATIONS LINEAR MODEL LOGISTIC MODEL SAMPLE DATASET COMPLETE DATASET STOCHASTIC REALIZATION WITH MODELS AND REALIZATIONS LINEAR MODEL LOGISTIC MODEL SAMPLE DATASET COMPLETE DATASET STOCHASTIC REALIZATION WITH AUTOCOVARIATES DETERMINISTIC REALIZATION NO AUTOCOVARIATES

Deterministic Realization Stochastic Realization ? ! ? ? Deterministic Realization Stochastic Realization ? ! ? ?

Stochastic realization Deterministic realization Stochastic realization Deterministic realization

Actual and predicted proportions of 1992 vegetation Actual and predicted proportions of 1992 vegetation

Matching the actual map on a cell by cell basis Matching the actual map on a cell by cell basis

Scenarios for 2020 Grazing intensities do not change Grazing is excluded Scenarios for 2020 Grazing intensities do not change Grazing is excluded

Mediterranean type ecosystems Mediterranean type ecosystems

Guess if this photo was taken in Israel or in California Guess if this photo was taken in Israel or in California

Oak woodland, chaparral, and grasses, in Carmel Valley, California Oak woodland, chaparral, and grasses, in Carmel Valley, California

Precipitation patterns in California and Israel Precipitation patterns in California and Israel

Precipitation match with Mt. Meron on a monthly basis 1. Cuyamaca mountains 2. Santa Precipitation match with Mt. Meron on a monthly basis 1. Cuyamaca mountains 2. Santa Ynez Mountains 4. Sequoia National Forest 5. Sierra Foothills Research Center 6. Hastings Natural History Reservation 8. South Cow Mountain Best match Worst match

Hastings Nature Reserve, Carmel Valley, California Hastings Nature Reserve, Carmel Valley, California

A small part of 1939 photo Grassland Chaparral Trees A small part of 1939 photo Grassland Chaparral Trees

Same area in 1956 Same area in 1956

Same area in 1971 Same area in 1971

Same area in 1995 Same area in 1995

Vegetation maps of Hastings, California Vegetation maps of Hastings, California

Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees

Change in tree cover in Meron and Hastings Change in tree cover in Meron and Hastings

Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change Weight of predictors in affecting vegetation change

Average annual change Mediterranean vegetation change in long-term, landscape-scale studies Average annual change Mediterranean vegetation change in long-term, landscape-scale studies

Why is there such a difference between vegetation dynamics in California and the Mediterranean Why is there such a difference between vegetation dynamics in California and the Mediterranean basin? 1. Local ecological and anthropogenic conditions 2. Different soils 3. Different evolutionary history

A transplant experiment is currently conducted, where oaks from both countries are grown together A transplant experiment is currently conducted, where oaks from both countries are grown together in both sites, in a controlled environment

More information on the various topics discussed here can be found in: Carmel, Y. More information on the various topics discussed here can be found in: Carmel, Y. and Flather, C. H. 2004. Comparing landscape scale vegetation dynamics following recent disturbance in climatically similar sites in California and the Mediterranean basin. Landscape Ecology 19: 573 -590. Carmel, Y. , Kadmon R. and Nirel, R. 2001. Spatio-temporal predictive models of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics. Ecological Applications, 11 (1): 268 -280. Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1999. Grazing, topography, and long term vegetation changes in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Plant Ecology, 145: 239 -250. Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1998. Computerized classification of Mediterranean vegetation using panchromatic aerial photographs. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9: 445 -454. Grunzweig, J. M. , Carmel, Y. , Riov, J. and Flather, C. H. Resource storage and adaptation to drought in oak seedlings: a comparative study with Californian and Mediterranean species. Submitted to Ecology.