“Little old South Africa is kicking our butt with its development of the PBMR. This should be a wake up call for the US. ” Syd Ball, Snr Researcher, Oak Ridge Laboratory, 11 June 2004 1
Agenda • • World Nuclear Industry Relative Radiation Exposure Relative Environmental Impact PBMR Plant Design Why PBMR in RSA? Market Outside RSA World Comments on PBMR 2
World Nuclear Industry 3
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Current Status • Resurgence in Europe and USA – – New orders in Finland & France Bulgarian gov’t approval for 2 new reactors (May 05) UK policy moving towards a 10+ reactor build programme USA consortium selecting two sites to apply for construction licenses • Continuing Construction including – Japan – India – Russia 3 reactors under construction 9 reactors under construction 4 reactors under construction • Major Build Programme in China – 5 fold increase from 9 current operating reactors to 40+ by 2020 8
Chinese Potential? • • Added 50 GW in 2004 Plan to add 60+GW in 2005 Plan to add 36 GW of PWR in next 15 years Plan to construct 1 + 18 HTR-PM (PBMR type design) • China ordered two more reactors on 18 May 2005 9
Countries currently expressing intention to build new nuclear power programmes include…. Africa Egypt Libya Tunisia Nigeria Morocco Asia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Americas Chile Mexico* Uruguay Brazil* Europe Bulgaria* Poland Turkey * In addition to existing nuclear plants 10
Relative Radiation Levels 11
Radiation Sources 12
Background Radiation Levels Figure adapted from Health Research Foundation, Kyoto, Japan with permission 13
UK Radon Distribution UK NRPB 14
Relative Radiation Exposure 15
Relative Environmental Impact 16
External Cost Ranges (excluding Global Warming impact) 17
CO 2 Emissions per k. Wh (full life-cycle) 18
Short Term Fatalities (1970 -1992) (*would be 10 x higher if accidents with less than 5 deaths included) BALL D. S. et al. An Analysis of Electricity Generators Health Risks, Res. Rep. No. 20, WHO, Norwich (1994) HIRSCHBERG S. , et al. , Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector, Paul Scherer Institute, Villigen (1996) 19
PBMR Plant Design 20
Plant Fundamentals • • • High Temperature Helium Cooled Reactor Coated Particle Fuel Spherical Fuel Elements (as per German reactors) Direct Cycle Gas Turbine No “safety systems” – fuel integrity maintained under most severe possible accident (full control rod removal from 100% power followed by pipe rupture and loss of all cooling). 21
Fuel Element Design for PBMR 22
Main Power System 23
PBMR DP 3 LAYOUT 24
PBMR Demo Site 25
Why PBMR in RSA? 26
ESKOM POWER STATIONS 500 MW+ MOZAMBIQUE T BOTSWANA NAMIBIA Pretoria T T T Johannesburg T T T SWAZILAND T T T H Maputo T Bloemfontein LESOTHO Durban Coastal demand is 34% of total demand but coastal generation is only 6% of total capacity 1500 km Koeberg PS N East London Cape Town Port Elizabeth 27
The PBMR’s 10 Unique Features · It is inherently safe · It is small · It is modular · It can be built almost anywhere · It is cost competitive · It is environmentally friendly (no CO 2) · It generates very little waste · It has a short construction lead-time · It has fast load-following characteristics · It is a South African project with global impact 28
PBMR Vision To be the preferred global provider of standardised nuclear energy systems, fuel and life-cycle support PBMR Mission To successfully build and commission a pilot fuel and a demonstration nuclear reactor by 2011. To develop the business through the selling, building and commissioning of commercial nuclear power plants and fuel plants internationally 29
PBMR Values PERFORMANCE Pride in what we do and how we do it BE A TEAM Being and working as a team Doing things right & doing the right things the “PBMR Way” The team is more than the individual PBMR people and technology Cooperation, synergy, loyalty and commitment A delivery mindset EMPOWERMENT Developing others Providing each other with the means and information we need Identifying weaknesses and opportunities and teaching ourselves and others to fill needs Promoting employment equity RESPECT & INTEGRITY Integer: a whole unit; Integrate: join to the whole; Integral: forming part of the whole – honesty; sincerity; consistency; soundness; challenging; inherent strength; respect for others, for safety and for the environment 30
PBMR Company Goals • Successfully commission a demonstration plant • Successfully commission a fuel manufacturing plant & manufacture qualified pebble fuel • Create a professional company infrastructure and workforce • Establish secure supply-chain • Obtain US design certification • Achieve sales plan (as per Information Memorandum) • Develop a formidable international image supported by successful project delivery • Facilitate national capacity skills development and local manufacturing • Identify, develop and maintain our competitive lead 31
Key Strategies • Standardisation • Small Size • Simple Systems • Internationalise 32
Schedule • • • 2004 Helium Test Facility Construction Start 2005 SAR Submitted to Eskom 2006 Long Lead Orders 2006 Pre-production fuel into test 2007 Start Plant Erection On site 2009 Physical Completion of Demo 2010 Load Fuel & Startup 2010 Long Lead Orders for Commercial Plants 2011 Hand Over to Eskom of Demo 2013 Hand Over of first Commercial PBMR 33
Market Outside RSA 34
World Electricity Generation 16% Nuclear • Doubled in 20 years or over 3% per year average 35 • Equates to some 600 PBMRs per year
Global Nuclear Cumulative Growth As at May 2004 15 years ~1500 PBMRs 36
Socio-Economic Impact of 100 PBMRs (Conningarth Economists, 2004 prices) • Impact on GDP – Demo Reactor R 1. 5 bn (ave. over 5 years) – Commercial Reactors R 7. 9 bn (ave. over 20 years) • Impact on Employment (Direct & Indirect) – Demo Reactor 14, 610 (ave. over 5 years) – Commercial Reactors 56, 696 (ave. over 20 years) • Impact on Gov’t Revenue – Demo Reactor R 1. 9 bn (total over 5 years) – Commercial Reactors R 38. 6 bn (total over 20 years) • Net Positive Impact on Balance of Payments – Demo Reactor R 2. 3 bn (total over 5 years) – Commercial Reactors R 23. 9 bn (total over 20 years) 37
Quotes on nuclear I “Little old South Africa is kicking our butt with its development of the PBMR. This should be a wake up call for the US. ” Syd Ball, Snr Researcher Oak Ridge Laboratory, 11 June 2004 “The long term future of reactors belongs to very high temperature reactors such as the PBMR. ” Nials Diaz, Chairman of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission July 2004 “I think we made a mistake in halting the HTR programme. ” Klaus Topfer, Germany’s former Minister of Nuclear Power and Environment. Davos, January 2003 “The PBMR technology could revolutionise how atomic energy is generated over the next several decades. It is one of the near-term technologies that could change the energy market. ” Prof. Andrew Kadak, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Jan. 2002 “It will be impossible for the EU to deliver its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol without further investment in nuclear power. ” EU Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio 29 Sept 2003 38
Quotes on nuclear II “We have no time to experiment with visionary energy sources; civilization is in imminent danger and has to use nuclear, the one safe, available energy source, now, or suffer the pain soon to be inflicted by our outraged planet. " James Lovelock, creator of the Gaia hypothesis, Independent 24 May 2004. "Areva is interested in assisting in the production of a prototype reactor and is negotiating an investment in South Africa's pebble bed modular reactor. " -- France's Foreign Trade Minister, Francois Loos, in the Sunday Times Business Times, 22 May 2005 "The generation IV pebble-bed reactors being developed in China and South Africa get attention for their meltdown-proof designs. But it's their low capital cost and potential for fast, modular construction that could blow the game open, as surely as the PC did for computing. At $300 million a pop for safe, clean energy, watch the floodgates open around the world. " -Wired Magazine, Feb 2005 "More than 100 wind turbines are needed to replace a single pebble bed modular reactor. Other 'soft energy' sources have similar problems. They cannot replace the clean, safe, abundant, inexpensive power at South Africa's fingertips". -- Rod Adams, editor, Atomic Insights, US. 39
Final Thought France added over 25, 000 MW of new nuclear plant within 10 years of deciding to “go nuclear” (1974 -1984) (Eskom current total capacity is ~36, 000 MW) 40
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