Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change and the Demographic Impact Eleanor Spillane Senior Projects Officer 3/15/2018 1
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population This presentation will: • Highlight the datasets that can be used to estimate population • Describe the underlying factors driving population change • Consider the impact on county demographics • Introduce the population projections 3/15/2018 2
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets NHS patient lists NINo allocation s Long Term Migrants Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Populatio n estimates Resident population Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s School Census Population projections Worker Registrations Births and deaths Destination of graduates 3
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Growth in Lincolnshire 2010 703, 000 1871 -1971 Approx. 150, 000 people People 1, 500 per year 1971 -2001 Almost 150, 000 Almost 5, 000 per year 3/15/2018 4
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Growth 900, 000 Lincs 600, 000 England 300, 000 31 20 11 20 91 19 71 19 51 19 31 19 11 19 91 18 3/15/2018 18 71 Index 100 5
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Growth in Lincolnshire 1990 s 2000 s % 3/15/2018 6
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change since 2001 Witham St Hughs 76% 2, 000 people Quarrington 55% 1, 500 people 3/15/2018 Wyberton 10% 400 people Market Deeping 6. 5% 400 people 7
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Released as part of the ONS Population Estimates Taken from the civil registration system Applied to authority of residence 3/15/2018 8
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Natural Change Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Lincolnshire East Lindsey West Lindsey 3/15/2018 SH NK Boston Lincoln South Kesteven 9
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Pe op le Births and deaths 3/15/2018 10
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Births and Deaths Population estimates ‘ 000 people Migration Births and deaths 3/15/2018 11
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and Internal Migration deaths National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) Transferring patient notifications 3/15/2018 12
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In 3/15/2018 13
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In Out 3/15/2018 14
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration Low house prices In Out 3/15/2018 9, 400 Recession 15
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration to Lincolnshire ‘ 000 people 2006 - 2010 3/15/2018 16
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Internal International Migration 3/15/2018 Births and deaths 17
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets NHS patient lists NINo allocation s Long Term Migrants Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Populatio n estimates Resident population Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s School Census Population projections Worker Registrations Births and deaths Destination of graduates 18
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population International Migration 2010 591, 000 EU , 000 179 rest of 2, 000 world 32 90, 000 Britain +252, 000 3/15/2018 EU 99, 000 f rest o 104 00 world 6, 0 3 in 1 rita B 339, 000 19
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Datasets NINo allocation s Populatio n estimates Resident population Lincolnshire’s Changing Population School Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s Worker Registrations 20
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Registrations National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) 3/15/2018 21
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk NINOs by District 3% 12% Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Last 5 Years 34% 22% 6% 16% 8% 3/15/2018 22 32, 920 registrations in the county since 2006/07
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Datasets NINo allocation s Populatio n estimates Resident population Lincolnshire’s Changing Population School Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s Worker Registrations 23
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Registrations Flag 4 GP Registrations 3/15/2018 24
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population English as an Additional Language Over 100, 000 pupils Nearly 5, 000 have English as an additional language 3% 15% 30% 18% 21% 5% 3/15/2018 7% 25
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Datasets NINo allocation s Populatio n estimates Resident population Lincolnshire’s Changing Population School Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s Worker Registrations 26
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Resident population 690, 000 UK 646, 000 Non-UK 45, 000 Non-EU 16, 000 3/15/2018 EU 29, 000 27
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Key Points • Population growth driven by migration • Increasing birth rate in recent years • In-migration rising again after 2 years of decline • Major source of international migrants changed from Portugal to Lithuania 3/15/2018 http: //shared. research-lincs. org. uk 28
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change • Births and deaths • Internal Migration • International Migration 3/15/2018 = 29
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group 3/15/2018 30
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group University opens 3/15/2018 31
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group Peak of internal migration 3/15/2018 32
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group 3/15/2018 33
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Age Profile 3/15/2018 Lincolnshire’s Changing Population 34
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets NHS patient lists NINo allocation s Long Term Migrants Census populatio n Internationa l Passengers Populatio n estimates Resident population Flag 4 Registration 3/15/2018 s School Census Population projections Worker Registrations Births and deaths Destination of graduates 35
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Growth 1871 -1971 Approx. 150, 000 people 2011 -2031 1, 500 per year 1971 -2011 Over 200, 000 Approx. 116, 000 5, 800 per year Over 5, 000 per year 3/15/2018 36
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 37
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 38
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 39
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 40
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 41
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 42
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 43
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 44
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 45
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 46
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 47
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 48
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 49
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 50
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 51
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 52
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 53
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 54
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 55
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 56
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 57
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 58
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 59
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 60
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 61
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population People Population Projections 3/15/2018 62
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Any questions? 3/15/2018 63
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