LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

TURKEY

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN TURKEY FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES WILDFIRES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH-QUAKES

TECTONIC PLATES

ANATOLIAN PLATE AND NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT

TURKEY’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION

SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL

IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS TECTONIC DEFORMATION DAMAGE/ LOSS SITE AMPLIFICATION DAMAGE/LOSS TSUNAMI FOUNDATION FAILURE FAULT RUPTURE DAMAGE/ LOSS LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS

GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS EXPOSURE MODEL

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM VULNERABILITY MODEL

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING ST ON E RI CK O R 30 ON RY , B 25 AS AL D M OR CE 20 F IN NF RE I 15 I RE O NF H S LL CE FO V VI OR NF E E W AM ET FR L CR EE ON ST IN RE INTENSITY ME FRA D WOO L & A MET ALL VII A DW I RE ITH C D CE R 5 W RE N CO D CE R OR D CE LS N U T RE C 10 0 IT W E UN MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE 35 VIII IX

CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i. e. , a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e. g. , earthquakes, floods, …) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE. . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE. . . • The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low -probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE. . . • The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE. . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE. . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

ERZINCAN: TURKEY’S WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DECEMBER 26, 1939 A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE 32, 700 DEATHS M 7. 8

ERZINCAN

ERZINCAN COLLAPSE

IZMIT: TURKEY’S 2 ND WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER AUGUST 17, 1999 A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE 17, 118 DEATHS M 7. 6

COLLAPSES

IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S PROBLEM: SOFT-STOREY BUILDINGS

THE REASON: LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE PROTECTION (I. E. , ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN BUILDING CODE)

THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKE RISK • EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • FORECASTS/SCENARIOS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTIFICATION AND/OR PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE • ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I. E. , WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ— TS DISASTER RESILIENCE • MEASURMENT • DATABASES TECHNOLOGIES (E. G. , • DISASTER GROUND SHAKING; SCENARIOS STRAIN) • ZONATION OF • INFORMATION POTENTIAL DISASTER TECHNOLOGY AGENTS AS A TOOL (E. G. , GIS) FOR POLICY • RISK MODELING (E. G. , DECISIONS HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ—TS DISASTER REWILIENCE • AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT • PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION • ADVANCED MATERIALS (E. G. , COMPOSITES) • COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN • PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS • ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E. G. , BASE ISOLATION) • REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ— TS DISASTER RESILIENCE • PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS • MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E. G. , SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM) • DATABASES • SEISMIC ENGINEERING • MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP • DISASTER SCENARIOS • WARNING SYSTEMS • RISK MODELING (E. G. , HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)