Lesson 1 THE DATA OF MACROECONOMICS B

Lesson 1 THE DATA OF MACROECONOMICS

B 112 Macro Economics • The aims of the module are: 1. That you understand the fundamental BASIC – KEY macro economic theories and the policies – actions associated with them Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 Macro Economics • The aims of the module are 2 Apply micro and macro economic theories and concepts for decision making in the business and wider environments 3 That you understand the underlying principles and trends of the economy and the cause and effects of each policy (SHORT and LONG RUN/TERMS) Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 Macro Economics • The aims of the module are: 4 That you understand the general macro economic theories and its effect upon business organisations / industries and the market. 5 Use effectively macro (and micro) economic theories in explaining business/industry and market phenomena. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 Macro Economics What will be in the examination on the 26 th September? • PART A which will test your understanding of key terms SO? ? ? • PART B short questions to demonstrate a clear understanding of basic Macro Economic Theory • PART C longer questions to show these theories are applied. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 Macro Economics Some words about the B 111 exam. • PART A most achieved good markets • PART B few students responded with reasoning • PART C very few students gave examples and good explanations. • Performance tended to reflect attendance. • If you want further feedback see me in tutorial on Friday 19 th. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 Key Areas to focus on • Government’s role and policies • Interest rates • Taxation – income, profits spending? ? • Monetary policies • Measuring the performance of an economy • International aspects – Trade • The Chinese Economy. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

B 112 The Broad Programme of Study • MIP on the website. • Lectures will attempt to cover and explain the topic • Tutorial will help your understanding. • Today Measuring the Economy • Subsequently - Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Measuring a Nation’s Income Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Measuring a Nation’s Income • Microeconomics is the study of how individual households and firms make decisions and how they interact with one another in markets. • Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. • Its goal is to explain the economic changes that affect many households, firms, and markets nationally and internationally at once. • The focus is on total activities – Aggregate Demand Supply – Industries as opposed to firms Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Measuring a Nation’s Income • Macroeconomics answers questions like the following: • Why is average income high in some countries and low in others? • Why do prices rise rapidly in some time periods while they are more stable in others? • Why do production and employment expand in some years and contract in others? Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE ECONOMY’S INCOME AND EXPENDITURE • When judging whether the economy of a country is doing well or poorly, it is natural to look at the total income that everyone in the economy is earning. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE ECONOMY’S INCOME AND EXPENDITURE • For an economy as a whole, income must equal expenditure because: • Every transaction has a buyer and a seller. • Every dollar of spending by some buyer is a dollar of income for some seller. • CIRCULAR FLOW OF INCOME Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the income and expenditures of an economy. • It is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. • Final goods and services bought by consumers (households) and government. • Final goods supplied by industries/ trade sectors and govenrnents Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • The equality of income and expenditure can

Figure 1 The Circular-Flow Diagram MARKETS FOR GOODS AND SERVICES • Firms sell Goods • Households buy and services sold Revenue Wages, rent, and profit Goods and services bought HOUSEHOLDS • Buy and consume goods and services • Own and sell factors of production FIRMS • Produce and sell goods and services • Hire and use factors of production Factors of production Spending MARKETS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION • Households sell • Firms buy Labor, land, and capital Income = Flow of inputs and outputs = Flow of dollars Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • GDP is the market value of all

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • “GDP is the Market Value. . . ” • Output is valued at market prices. • “. . . Of All Final. . . ” • It records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods (the value is counted only once). • “. . . Goods and Services. . . “ • It includes both tangible goods (food, clothing, cars) and intangible services (haircuts, housecleaning, doctor visits). Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • “. . . Produced. . . ” • It includes goods and services currently produced, not transactions involving goods produced in the past. • “. . . Within a Country. . . ” • It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a country. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT • “. . . In a Given Period of Time. ” • It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months). Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP • GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets. • Measurement is financially based so does not include bartering of goods and services • I teach you economics you teach me Chinese Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP • What Is Not Counted in GDP? • GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace. • It excludes items produced and sold illicitly, such as illegal drugs. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP • GDP (Y) is the sum of the following: •

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP • Consumption (C): • The spending by households on goods and services, with the exception of purchases of new housing. • Investment (I): • The spending on capital equipment, inventories STOCKS OF ITEMS, and infrastructures, including new housing – public and private. Roads and Airports etc Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP • Government Purchases (G): • The spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal governments. • Does not include transfer payments because they are not made in exchange for currently produced goods or services. EG Social payments / subsidies • Net Exports (NX): • Exports minus imports. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Table 1 GDP and Its Components Copyright© 2004 South-Western

GDP and Its Components (2001) Government Purchases 18% Net Exports Investment -3 % 16%

REAL VERSUS NOMINAL GDP • Nominal GDP values the production of goods and services at current prices. • Real GDP values the production of goods and services at constant prices. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

REAL VERSUS NOMINAL GDP • An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal

Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP Copyright© 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator • The GDP deflator is a measure of the price level calculated as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP times 100. • It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator • The GDP deflator is calculated as follows: Copyright © 2004

The GDP Deflator • Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP • Nominal GDP is

Figure 2 Real GDP in the United States Billions of 1996 Dollars $10, 000

GDP Homework • What is the latest GDP for • The United States of

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELLBEING • GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society. • GDP person tells us the income and expenditure of the average person in the economy. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELLBEING • Higher GDP person indicates a higher standard of living.

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING • Some things that contribute to well-being are not included in GDP. • The value of leisure. • The value of a clean environment. • The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets, such as the value of the time parents spend with their children and the value of volunteer work. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Table 3 GDP, Life Expectancy, and Literacy Copyright© 2004 South-Western

Summary • Because every transaction has a buyer and a seller, the total expenditure in the economy must equal the total income in the economy. • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures an economy’s total expenditure on newly produced goods and services and the total income earned from the production of these goods and services. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. • GDP is divided among four components of expenditure: consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • Nominal GDP uses current prices to value the economy’s production. Real GDP uses constant base-year prices to value the economy’s production of goods and services. • The GDP deflator—calculated from the ratio of nominal to real GDP—measures the level of prices in the economy. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • GDP is a good measure of economic well-being because people prefer higher to lower incomes. • It is not a perfect measure of well-being because some things, such as leisure time and a clean environment, aren’t measured by GDP. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Production and Growth A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce

Production and Growth • Within a country there can be large changes in the

Production and Growth • In the United States over the past century, average income

Production and Growth • Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a worker’s time. • A nation’s standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences Copyright© 2004 South-Western Copyright © 2004 South-Western

ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • Living standards, as measured by real GDP person,

ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • The poorest countries have average levels of income

ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years. • Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS • Productivity plays a key role in determining living

Why Productivity Is So Important • Productivity refers to the amount of goods and

Why Productivity Is So Important • To understand the large differences in living standards

How Productivity Is Determined • The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production. • The factors of production directly determine productivity. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How Productivity Is Determined • The Factors of Production • • Physical capital Human

How Productivity Is Determined • Physical Capital • is a produced factor of production. • It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process. • is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. • Tools used to build or repair automobiles. • Tools used to build furniture. • Office buildings, schools, etc. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How Productivity Is Determined • Human Capital • the economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience • Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How Productivity Is Determined • Natural Resources • inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. • Renewable resources include trees and forests. • Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal. • can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How Productivity Is Determined • Technological Knowledge • society’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. • Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: The Production Function • Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: The Production Function • Y = A F(L, K, H, N) • • Y = quantity of output A = available production technology L = quantity of labor K = quantity of physical capital H = quantity of human capital N = quantity of natural resources F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: The Production Function • A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, x. Y = A F(x. L, x. K, x. H, x. N) • That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: The Production Function • Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication. • Setting x = 1/L, • Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Where: Y/L = output per worker K/L = physical capital per worker H/L = human capital per worker N/L = natural resources per worker Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: The Production Function • The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A). Copyright © 2004 South-Western

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY • Governments can do many things to raise productivity

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY • Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards • • Encourage saving and investment. Encourage investment from abroad Encourage education and training. Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability. • Promote free trade. • Promote research and development. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The Importance of Saving and Investment • One way to raise future productivity is

Figure 1 Growth and Investment (b) Investment 1960– 1991 (a) Growth Rate 1960– 1991 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda 0 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Growth Rate (percent) 0 10 20 30 40 Investment (percent of GDP) Copyright © 2004 South-Western Copyright© 2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns. • Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Investment from Abroad • Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by

Investment from Abroad • Investment from abroad takes several forms: • Foreign Direct Investment • Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. • Foreign Portfolio Investment • Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Education • For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. • In the United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage, on average, by about 10 percent. • Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Education • An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Education • One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drain—the emigration of

Property Rights and Political Stability • Property rights refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own. • An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work. • It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Free Trade • Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology. • A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Free Trade • Some countries engage in. . . • . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. • . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Research and Development • The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living. • Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors. • Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup • From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a rate of 3. 2 percent per year. • From 1973 to 1995 productivity grew by only 1. 5 percent per year. • Productivity accelerated again in 1995, growing by 2. 6 percent per year on average during the next six years. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup • The causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive. • The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of production that are most easily measured. • Many economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new ideas. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Person Growth Rate (percent per year) 4. 0 3. 5 3. 0 2. 5 2. 0 1. 5 1. 0 0 1870– 1890– 1910– 1930– 1950– 1970– 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990– 2000 Copyright © 2004 South-Western Copyright© 2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

Population Growth • Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth

Population Growth • Population growth interacts with other factors of production: • Stretching natural resources • Diluting the capital stock • Promoting technological progress Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP person, varies substantially around the world. • The average income of the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest countries. • The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • Productivity depends on the amounts of physical capital, human capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge available to workers. • Government policies can influence the economy’s growth rate in many different ways. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns. • Because of diminishing returns, higher saving leads to a higher growth for a period of time, but growth will eventually slow down. • Also because of diminishing returns, the return to capital is especially high in poor countries. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Measuring the Cost of Living Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Measuring the Cost of Living • Inflation refers to a situation in which the economy’s overall price level is rising. • The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period. Month on Month/ Year on Year/ Quarter on Quarter… Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. • The relevant government department reports the CPI each month. • It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX • When the CPI rises, the typical family has to

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. • The US - Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. • The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Find the Prices: Find the prices

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: • Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. • Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Compute the inflation rate: The inflation

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • The Inflation Rate • The inflation

Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example Copyright©

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated • Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another Example • • • Base Year is 2002. Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1, 200. The same basket in 2004 costs $1, 236. CPI = ($1, 236/$1, 200) 100 = 103. Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

FYI: What’s in the CPI’s Basket? 16% Food and beverages 17% Transportation Education and communication 6% 41% Housing 6% 6% 4% 4% Medical care Recreation Apparel Other goods and services Copyright© 2004 South-Western Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living • The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living • Substitution bias • Introduction of new

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living • Substitution Bias • The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. • Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive. • The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living • Introduction of New Goods • The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products. • New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. • Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living • The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living. • The issue is important because many government programs use the CPI to adjust for changes in the overall level of prices / wages • The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index • The GDP deflator is calculated

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index • The BLS calculates other prices indexes: • The index for different regions within the country. • The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index • Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising. • There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index • The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas. . . • …the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index • The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket). . . • …whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation Percent per Year 15 CPI 10 5 0

CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION • Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Dollar Figures from Different Times • Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruth’s

Table 2 The Most Popular Movies of All Times, Inflation Adjusted Copyright© 2004 South-Western

Indexation • When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or

Real and Nominal Interest Rates • Interest represents a payment in the future for

Real and Nominal Interest Rates • The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for inflation. • It is the interest rate that a bank pays. • The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Real and Nominal Interest Rates • You borrowed $1, 000 for one year. • Nominal interest rate was 15%. • During the year inflation was 10%. Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation = 15% - 10% = 5% Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates (percent per year) 15 10 Nominal interest rate 5 0 Real interest rate – 5 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Copyright© 2004 South-Western Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. • The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. • The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality. • Because of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • Dollar figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power. • Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of inflation. • The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Summary • The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services produced rather than goods and services consumed. • In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, while the GDP deflator automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition of GDP changes. Copyright © 2004 South-Western