LEDs Opportunities and Uncertainties An Update 18 November

LEDs: Opportunities and Uncertainties An Update 18 November 2009 Benjamin Gross, Ph. D. Consultant SBI Explorer www. strategicbusinessinsights. com © 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.

LED Attributes LEDs can improve most lighting solutions Key Attributes: Eficiency Design Longevity Color Image Sources: Actuate Corp. , architonic. com, Zumtobel, Bracknell Forest Borough Council, MB Tronics 2

Lighting Applications LEDs can improve most lighting solutions Applications include: Home Automotive Outdoors Display Image Sources: LED Colour Solutions, Motion Trend, Orange. Te. K, Crutchfield New Media, LLC 3

LED Development First half of the 20 th century: light from p-n junction. hv p-type - n-type - + + i • 1960 s and 1970 s: commercial IR, red, and yellow light emitting diodes (LEDs) (RCA, GE, TI) • Color: semiconductor bandgap • Al. Ga. As: red and IR; Al. Ga. P: green; Al. Ga. In. P: yellow, orange 4

LED Development • 1990 s: First commercial high-brightness blue LEDs (Nichia Shuji Nakamura). • White lights quickly followed. • Yellow phosphor combines for white light: — Ce: YAG, Zn. Se (substrate and phosphor), quantum dots. Image Sources: University of Wisconsin, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Treehugger. com, lightemittingdiodes. org 5

Efficiency Drive for efficiency is pushing LED interest Incandescent Fluorescent LED < 20 lm/W 45– 60 lm/W (CFL) < 90 lm/W (available) <100 lm/W (Tube) >150 lm/W (experimental) In SI measurements, luminous efficacy at 555 nm has a theoretical maximum of 683 lm/W. Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca Flasher 6

Design Small packages and color options allow for novel design opportunities. Image Sources: Solas, Koninklijke Philips Electronics, UMNITZ, architonic. com, Zumtobel 7

Longevity For embedded applications: Longevity reduces waste. Image Sources: Motion 0 Trend; Orange. Te. K; Declan Mc. Cullagh; Forth Corporation; Bracknell Forest Borough Council 8

Color Reproduction • Blue lights with yellow phosphors provide “warmer” white lighting than fluorescent. • White LEDs yield improved color depth. • RGB modules provide adjustable coloring. Quantum-dot lighting may provide even richer, more natural light with broader color gamut. Image Sources: Apple; treehugger. com 9

High-Brightness LED Market Estimated 24% CAGR between 2008 and 2013. $4. 6 B $5. 1 B $14. 9 B (est. ) $4. 9 B Overall lighting market approximately $100 B in 2010. Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts 10

High-Brightness LED Market • Market led by Japan: Nichia, Toshiba, Showa Denko KK, Sharp, CITIZEN and Toyoda Gosei. • Followed by Taiwan: Chi Mei (now owned by Hon Hai), TSMC • European Union: Philips, OSRAM Sylvania • United States: Cree • Korea: Samsung LED, LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor • China: Manufacturing dispersed, many downstream manufacturers Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts 11

General Illumination • General illumination market $5 B by 2012 • LED benefits over CFL (CCT, lifetime, dimmability, low-temperature, no mercury). • Cost of LEDs remains too high for consumers. • U. S. , Japan, Canada, Australia (and others) banning sale of most incandescent bulbs by 2012. • Europe banning the sale of 100 -W incandescent bulb, Sept. 2009, all incandescent bulbs 2016. • LED has no mercury, so offers Ro. HS advantages. Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) is an approximation of emitted spectrum from a black-body radiator at temperature in kelvin. Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca Flasher Data Source: Strategies Unlimited 12

Commercial/Municipal • Always on: longevity and efficiency important — Labor-intensive maintenance — Understood cost/benefit • Better outdoor/cold-temperature performance • New buildings, new light fixtures • U. S. has ~130 M streetlamps, $65 B replacement market over next 10 years. Image Sources: LEDs Magazine Data Sources: U. S. DOE, Beringea LLC 13

Automotive • Space and power efficiency is important. • Efficiency is a value in hybrid/EV. • LEDs last the life of the car. • LED-based brake lights represented 53% of worldwide market in 2007, expected to be 85% of market by 2011. Image Sources: Gizmodo. com; UMNITZA; Flatbatt Data Source: Beringea LLC 14

Automotive • New opportunities in design: distinctive image branding White LED headlights limited to luxury market. Image Sources: Edmunds; Wheeltalk 15

Automotive • Smarter design offers adaptive front lighting. • Design adjusts to speed and in turns. • Future systems adjust cutoff line, brightness, conditions. Image Sources: BMW World; LEDs Magazine 16

Displays • LED backlighting units for LCDs: — Full NTSC color gamut — Improved contrast with local dimming — Better efficiency (Energy Star in United States) — No mercury (Ro. HS) • LED TVs from Sony, Sharp, Samsung, LG, Vizio, and more. Image Sources: Hard. Ware. fr; Samsung; ac. World; Techfresh Data Source: Display. Search, i. Suppli 17

Displays • LCDs represent 88% of display market. • 104. 5 M LED BLU units in 2009 (est. ), 53% of mid- to high-end notebooks. • LED BLUs in 3% of LCD TVs in 2009, reaching 39% of LCD TVs in 2013 (~90% CAGR). Image Sources: Hard. Ware. fr; Samsung; ac. World; Techfresh Data Source: Display. Search, i. Suppli 18

Displays • Large LED Displays: — Are visible in direct sunlight — Can be very large — Need infrequent component replacement Image Sources: Mitsubishi; Declan Mc. Cullagh 19

Freespace Communications • Outdoor — Reasonable Optical Near Joint Access (RONJA, Czech Rep. ) — 10 Mbps, >1. 4 km — Weather problems • Indoor — White LED lighting — Unlicensed spectrum • Traffic Signal Image Sources: Twibright Labs, VLCC 20

Commercialization Parameters • Technological Hurdles • New materials for LEDs — Phosphors — Quantum dots — Casing materials • Efficiency — Luminaire efficacy — High-power HB-LEDs (to outperform CFL) • Luminous flux Image Sources: treehugger. com 21

Commercialization Parameters • Cost Hurdles • Economies of Scale — Like computer chips — Demand across all applications • Incumbency — Ubiquitous AC power and light fixtures — Creative destruction Image Sources: treehugger. com 22

Commercialization Parameters Social Drivers • Policy drivers • Need for standardization • Public movement — “Ban the Bulb” — Energy-efficiency push Image Sources: treehugger. com 23

Conclusions for now • Lighting, automotive, and displays are the fastest-growing areas and where new opportunities will be. • LED supportive national policies are being implemented, and will continue to emerge. • LEDs are a part of the “cleantech” movement. • Efficacy and cost issues can be met within a reasonable time frame. • Standards are necessary for buy in. Image Sources: Sustainable Design Update 24

Outlook • • • LEDs achieving 85% of brake light market in 2011. Laptop display market trending toward 100% adoption of LEDs. LED BLU for LCDs will be largest contributor toward market growth, largest market segment through 2013. LED general illumination market to see 15% growth in 2009, 40%50% growth in years following economic recovery. Second largest application of HB-LED in 2013. Detroit based Ilumisys (subsidiary of Altair Engineering) plans to grow out of economic downturn, claims it will be “highest volume maker of solid state lighting products, ” by end of 2010. 25

Task: Consider Areas to Monitor R&D Advances Issues and Uncertainties Efficiency Regulations Cost of LED Economy Automobile Market Luxury Automobile Market LED-BLU Dominates LCD HDTV Global Standardized In-home Fixture Light DC Power Streetlight/Signal Replacement Availability of Q-Dot Mass Enabling Components Production LED Replaces Incandescent Consumer Acceptance of LED (Upfront Cost and Appearance) Cost of Energy OLED Competitive With LED Projectors Efficacy Improvement Adaptive Front-Lighting (HB/LB) 26