Latin American Panel November 1, 2011 TANKER MARKET OVERVIEW JOSEPH ANGELO MANAGING DIRECTOR
The state of the Tanker Industry • Weak market, uncertain/weak fundamentals • Oversupply of tankers – slow steaming (ballast) – Lowering of C/P speed – Suez Canal less used – Piracy effect – longer routes/inefficiency – Waiting • Increased Middle East export has not helped freight rates
Tanker Market World GDP and oil demand change % Oil/tanker demand correlates with Economic growth IMF forecast positive growth projected – but there is great uncertainty Because the extra barrel is taken from the Middle east, tonne-miles growth is stronger Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys
Recent Tanker Rates $/day Rates improved by slow steaming/backhauls Source: Baltic: Exchange/BITR
Tanker Market Oil price and freight rates 1970 -2011 $ per barrel
Tanker Market VLCC newbuilding prices and break even rates m$ $/day
Tanker Demand
Middle East oil production mbd 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Year
Tanker Demand Increase in world oil demand mbd 3. 0 2. 6 2. 2 1. 8 1. 4 1. 0 0. 6 0. 2 -0. 6 Biofuels demand -1. 0 World Rest of world Middle East USA -1. 4 China -1. 8 Based on data from IEA 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 -2. 6 1995 -2. 2
Tanker Demand Seaborne Oil Trade and Middle East Oil production mbd Based on Fearnleys/IEA 000 bn tonne-miles
Tanker Demand Crude oil seaborne trade 38 mbd in 2010 3057 bn tonne miles in 2010
Tanker Demand Oil balance: production - consumption mbd Source: INTERTANKO / IEA
Tanker Demand Middle East Oil production Jan-2000 to Aug-2011 mbd Based on Fearnleys/IEA Primo Oct. 2011 negative VLCC Rates
Tanker Demand Trade movements mbd Based on BP
Tanker Supply
Tanker Supply Tanker fleet development m dwt number 545 6, 400 dwt Number 491 5, 780 Assumed orderbook August 2011, include chemical tankers Tanker fleet increase 2003 -2013 some 72% 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 3, 300 1998 275 1997 3, 920 1996 329 1995 4, 540 1994 383 1993 5, 160 1992 437
Tanker Supply Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers 10, 000 dwt + balance assuming various demand increases m dwt Under above assumptions, 6% growth necessary to regain market balance by 2014 or more removal of DH tankers
Tanker Supply Newbuilding Orders (Clarkson) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 Oct 11 VLCCs 4. 6 15. 0 12. 3 10. 1 34. 7 11. 4 34. 0 6. 1 15. 8 1. 6 Suezmaxes 2. 3 7. 9 4. 5 1. 1 12. 2 9. 4 8. 0 4. 4 9. 5 2. 4 Aframaxes 5. 2 10. 6 7. 2 6. 0 18. 4 8. 8 3. 7 2. 0 4. 0 0. 8 Panamaxes 3. 0 5. 7 4. 1 2. 3 4. 1 3. 8 1. 3 1. 0 1. 3 0. 2 Handy 3. 3 6. 6 4. 7 6. 1 11. 2 4. 9 3. 5 1. 4 1. 6 1. 7 Chemicals/s peci. 2. 1 3. 0 4. 5 4. 3 8. 0 9. 3 2. 4 0. 2 0. 1 0. 2 Total 20. 5 48. 8 37. 3 29. 2 88. 6 47. 6 52. 9 15. 1 32. 3 6. 9
Average tanker fleet above 10, 000 dwt Years Based on LRFairplay
Tanker Values
VLCC value - 15 years old and scrap value m$ 60 50 40 30 20 Source: Clarkson/SIW 40817 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 0 2001 10
Conclusion
Conclusions Oil demand, tonne-mile, and tanker fleet indices Tanker fleet increase 2002 -2010: 46% Source: IEA, Fearnleys, INTERTANKO
Conclusions Slowing Growth, Rising Risks • Fundamentals uncertain or weak • Recovery in the US and Europe and debt problems are aggravating situation • Chinese growth is threatened partly by weakening world economy but also by a domestic debt burdened industry • Oil demand growth still positive, but weakening • Surplus of tankers will continue to increase
Conclusions Strategic tanker consideration • China and Asia expected to drive demand the Middle East has the reserves • Successful Green House Gas reduction will mean reduced oil consumption • High oil prices dampen growth in world economy and a stimuli to fuel saving • Substantial opportunities for both owners and charterers with regard to vessel speed • Costs reduction needs carful risk management
Thank You For more information, please visit www. intertanko. com
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