Latin America´s Decade Latinobarometro 1995 -2014 Marta Lagos Presented at the Wilson Center January 28 th 2014
SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime, DNA/DNK. Source: Latinobarómetro 1995 -2013
SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 BY EDUCATION, AGE AND SEX TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. With which of the following statements do you agree most? Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one; for people like me, it doesn’t matter whether we have a democratic or non-democratic regime. * Here only ‘Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
CHURCHILLIAN DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Do you strongly agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement? Democracy may have problems but it is the best system of government. * Here only ‘Strongly agree’ plus ‘Agree’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2002 -2013
FULL DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (country)? * Here only ‘A democracy, with major problems’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
NOT ENOUGH MONEY TO BUY FOOD TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Has your household run out of money to buy food at any time during the past 12 months? * Here only ‘Yes’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
DEMOCRACY CAN WORK WITHOUT POLITICAL PARTIES TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Some people say that without political parties there can be no democracy while others say that democracy can work without political parties. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work without political parties’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1997 -2013
DEMOCRACY CAN WORK WITHOUT CONGRESS TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997 -2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Some people say that without a National Congress there can be no democracy while others say that democracy can work without a National Congress. Which is closer to your view? * Here only ‘Democracy can work without a National Congress’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1997 -2013
SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’ and ‘Not very satisfied’ plus ‘Not at all satisfied’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1995 -2013
SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY TOTAL LATIN AMERICA AND EUROPE 1995 -2013 Q. In general, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the working of the democracy in (country)? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’. Source: Latinobarómetro and Eurobarometer 1995 -2013 NOTA PONER EUROBAROMETER EN LEYENDA
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2002 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Do you approve or not of the performance of the government led by President (name)? * Here only ‘Approve’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2002 -2013
INTEREST IN POLITICS TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. How interested would you say you are in politics? Very interested, ‘somewhat interested, not very interested or not at all interested? * Here only ‘Very interested’ and ‘Somewhat interested’. Chile and Peru, two countries with high economic growth rates and low levels of interest in politics Source: Latinobarómetro 1995 -2013
WILLINGNESS TO PROTEST ABOUT… TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 Q. On a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means “not at all” and 10 means “very”, how willing would you be to demonstrate and protest about…? Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
EXPECTATIONS
SATISFACTION WITH LIFE TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1997 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Generally speaking, would you say that you are satisfied with your life? Would you say that you are. . ? * Here only ‘Very satisfied’ plus ‘Somewhat satisfied’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1997 -2013
PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is progressing’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1995 -2013
PERCEPTION OF PROGRESS TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2011 -2013 Q. Would you say that this country is progressing, is at a standstill or is in decline? * Here only ‘Is progressing'. Half of countries progress between 2011 and 2013. Source: Latinobarómetro 2011 – 2013
COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In general, how would you describe the country’s current economic situation? Would you say it is very good, about average, bad or very bad? * Here only ‘Bad’ plus ‘Very bad’. Countries in difficulty Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
FUTURE PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In the next 12 months, do you think your economic situation and that of your family will be much better, a little better, about the same, a little worse or much worse than now? * Here only 'Much better' plus 'A little better'. Future expectations increase given strong perceptions of a better economic situation. Source: Latinobarómetro 2001 -2013
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT 2013 Economic sentiment is higher for personal situation that of the country.
FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2001 -2013 - TOTALS BY OCUNTRY 2013 Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, unfair or very unfair. * Here only ‘Very fair’ plus ‘Unfair’. Source: Latinobarómetro 2001 -2013
FAIRNESS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2010 -2013 Q. How fair do you think income distribution is in (country)? Very fair, unfair or very unfair. *Here only ‘ Very fair’ plus ‘Fair’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1997 -2013
HOT WATER TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. Do you or any member of your family have any of the following goods? * Here only ‘Yes’ for hot water. Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
SUBJECTIVE INCOME: IT’S NOT ENOUGH TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 1995 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY Q. Do the salary you receive and your total family income allow you to cover your needs in a satisfactory manner? Which of the following statements describes your situation? * Here only ‘It’s not enough, we have problems’ plus ‘It’s not enough, we have major problems’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1996 -2013
COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. * Here only answers with more than 3%. Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
SUMMARY: MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM ECONOMIC PROBLEMS/CRIME TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2007 -2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? * Here only ‘Unemployment’ plus ‘Economy/economic/financial problems’ plus ‘Poverty’ and ‘Crime’. 2013 ECONOMIC PROBLEMS Source: Latinobarómetro 2007 -2013
MOST IMPORTANT UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEM: CRIME TOTAL LATINA AMERICA 1995 -2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 AND Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in the country? * Here only ’Unemployment’ plus ‘Crime’. Source: Latinobarómetro 1995 -2013
COUNTRY’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. In your opinion, which is the most important problem in your country? Open question. *Here only ‘Corruption’, ‘Crime’ and ‘Economic problems’ (the economy, crime, poverty and unemployment). CORRUPTION Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 CRIME ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
CAN THE GOVERNMENT SOLVE PROBLEMS DURING THE NEXT FIVE YEARS? TOTALS BY COUNTRY Q. How likely is it that the government will solve the most important problem you identified within the next five 2013 years? Very likely, not very likely or not at all likely. * Here only ‘Very likely’ plus ‘Likely’ and ‘Not very likely’ plus ‘Not at all likely’ LIKELY Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 NOT LIKELY
CAN THE STATE SOLVE THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS? TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 – TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. To what extent do you think the state can solve the problem of crime? The state can solve all the problem, a large part of the problem, a small part of the problem or the state cannot solve the problem. * Here only ‘All the problem’ plus ‘A large part of the problem’. CRIME Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
MIDDLE CLASS IN LATIN AMERICA Contrast between World Bank and self clasification of class in Latinobarómetro
CLASS STATUS: LATINOBAROMETRO VERSUS WORLD BANK WB 2009 LB 2013 DIFFERENCE Middle Low class Upper Difference Differenc LB-WB e LB-WB 5 -43 36 5 -35 30 11 -33 23 5 -29 23 5 -27 20 4 -26 19 10 -20 12 6 -18 11 Poor / vulnerable Country Bolivia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela Paraguay Costa Rica Panama Dominican Republic Colombia Honduras LAC El Salvador Argentina Brazil Uruguay Chile Middle Class Upper Class Low Middle 82 79 72 75 81 75 60 68 17 21 26 25 18 24 37 30 1 1 0 1 3 2 39 44 39 46 54 49 40 50 53 51 49 48 38 43 49 41 77 22 1 62 33 5 -15 11 67 83 51 66 40 53 30 17 30 16 46 32 56 42 3 1 2 3 4 5 57 74 58 76 46 62 54 68 34 20 36 16 50 28 38 30 8 4 4 2 4 8 7 2 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 -4 14 15 4 3 6 0 4 -4 -18 -12
CLASS STATUS: LATINOBAROMETRO´S DIFFERENCE WITH WORLD BANK
CLASS: LATINOBAROMETRO & WORLD BANK AVERAGE FOR LATIN AMERICA 2013 - 2009 Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe yourself as belonging to. . . ? 58 Poor / vulnerable 67 36 Middle Class 30 4 Upper Class 2 0 10 20 LAC LB 30 40 LAC BM Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 World Bank 2009. ( “low”=low + vulnerable class) 50 60 70 80
SOCIAL CLASS: SELF-CLASSIFICATION TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to a social class. Which social class would you describe yourself as belonging to…? * Here only ‘High’ plus ‘Upper-middle’, ‘Middle’ and ‘Lower-middle’ plus ‘Low’. HIGH Source: Latinobarómetro 2013 MIDDLE LOW
EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY BETWEEN THE LAST TWO GENERATIONS TOTAL LATIN AMERICA 2013 - TOTALS BY COUNTRY 2013 Q. What level of education do you have? What was the last year you completed? Q. What level of education did your parents have? Source: Latinobarómetro 2013
Churchillian Democracy País Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Dominican LATINOBARÓMETRO 2008* 77 77 82 70 82 78 60 63 58 66 69 67 71 70 63 LAPOP 2008** WVS Wave 2005*** 6, 2 5, 3 5, 2 5, 4 5, 7 5 5, 1 4, 6 5, 3 4, 8 4, 9 91 5, 5 82 80 89
Support for Democracy: Democracy is preferable to any other form of government Country Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Dominican Rep. Uruguay Venezuela LATINOBARÓMETRO 2013* 73 61 49 LAPOP 2012** 66 DIFFERENCE 63 52 53 62 49 41 44 37 50 49 50 56 60 71 87 -22 72 87 70 72 66 69 75 84 84 63 72 75 87 -20 -34 -8 -23 -25 -38 -34 -35 -13 -16 -15 -16
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