Knowledge for Development Seminar Center for International Development

Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 30, 2003 Seminar on Knowledge Systems for Development: A Survey of Core Questions and Answers "Science, Salt Water and Submarines: Doing R&D with the Navy" Harvard University Kennedy School of Government Presentation by RADM Richard F. Pittenger, USN (Ret. ) Vice President for Marine Operations Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution October/November 2003

ASW as a Cumulative Conditional Probability Equation Prob. Success = Prob. Detection x Prob. Classification x Prob. Localization x Prob. Attack x Prob. Kill Probability of success is controlled by lowest probability. ASW Campaign is a game of small numbers – i. e. attrition (small individual encounter success rates add up to overall success). October/November 2003

ASW and Submarine Warfare Force Level Builder in Cold War • SSBN – Ballistic Missile Sub Ø The survivable leg of the triad (second strike) Ø New mission • SSN – Nuclear Attack Submarines Ø No longer an anti-commerce mission Ø Now focused on ASW • Fixed Wing Aircraft – Maritime Air (VP) Ø Key to winning World War II ASW Campaign Ø No mission without Soviet Submarine Threat • Surface Reluctant Players (“Gun Club”) • Shore Ø Jobs for: Navy Labs, Academia, Industry October/November 2003

Threat Perception • Soviet Submarine Construction Effort • Recollection of Second Battle of the Atlantic • Missiles Close to U. S. Ø Short / No warning (This one gets Congress’s attention. ) Ø SOSUS Primary Task - I & W • Submarines Threaten Allied Sea Control and thus U. S. National Security October/November 2003

Secrets to Success in PPBS Process • Priority at all levels President – “Brickbat” DOD Navy – Pentagon and Fleet Congress • Funding (ASW TOA FY ’ 86 ~ $14 B) October/November 2003

Good RDT&E • Involves Both Ø Technology / Knowledge “Push” and Ø Requirement Pull (6. 3 6. 5) • The state of knowledge and the availability of knowledgeable scientists, engineers, operators and managers are key ingredients to developing weapons systems. October/November 2003

Examples Technology/Knowledge (Push) Nuclear Powered Sub Ballistic Missile Requirement (Pull) Survivable Strategic Missile Capability Deep Sound Channel Hydrophone and Cable Technology (AT&T) Acoustic Processing SOSUS Oceanography October/November 2003

Examples (continued) Technology/Knowledge (Push) Long Range Acoustic Path CZ, BB Platform Quieting Sonar and Sonobuoy Design • Transducer • Processing • Transmission Requirement (Pull) ASW Sensors Sonars Sonobuoys Towed Arrays Oceanography October/November 2003

Detection Problem Solution Need: • U. S. faced with “another” large submarine threat Ø Soviets > 300 subs o Combination of nuclear power and ballistic missile tilts Cold War balance. o Subs, in general, threaten national security. • Large area-basin scale sensors as well as tactical sensors Enabled by: • Discovery of long-range acoustic propagation paths – Ewing Approach: • SOSUS – fixed arrays • Follow-up forces Ø MPA Ø SSN • Surface and air sensors exploiting CZ and BB October/November 2003

The Shadow Zone Below a 200 -Foot Isothermal Layer Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 12. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U. S. Do. D contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

Deep-Ocean Sound Paths Exploitable by the SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 2. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U. S. Do. D contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

Echo Versus Frequency Plots at Two Ranges Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 22. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U. S. Do. D contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS 411). Page 22. October/November 2003

Engagement Problem • Soviet submarines Ø Anechoic coatings Ø Double hull construction Ø Countermeasures • Fleet Performance Ø Weapon delivery accuracy (CEP) Ø Torpedo sonar range Ø Warhead lethality Solution • NEARTIP – Near-Term Torpedo Improvement Program Ø Improve MK 46 Torpedo o Slow down o Better processing, CCM o Better explosive warhead • Advanced Lightweight Torpedo Ø Major R&D program ~$4 B Ø Push sonar, propulsion, guidance & control, warhead to state-of-the-art and beyond • Better Fleet Tactics • Presidential Priority October/November 2003