Key Technology Trajectories Prague, October 22 nd, 2004 Roberto Saracco roberto. saracco@tilab. com
Key Technology Trajectories Ø Approach Ø Trajectories Ø Disruptions Roberto Saracco roberto. saracco@tilab. com
The Web Site The FOUR LAYERS
Looking into Technologies Ø How would a Tech. evolve? Ø How is it related to the whole?
Looking into Technologies Year 2004 #n #c 0, 164 0, 051 3, 000 2, 774 0, 266 0, 055 Year 2020 #c 2, 899 Year 2010 #n 3, 090 2, 781 2, 689 0, 270 0, 058
Looking into Technologies Year 2004 #n #c 0, 164 0, 439 3, 000 9, 035 0, 266 0, 494 Year 2020 #c 9, 838 Year 2010 #n 3, 090 2, 781 8, 646 0, 270 0, 504
Looking into Technologies Ø How would a Tech. evolve? Ø How is it related to the whole? Ø What are the crucial impacts? (passive/active)
Technology Trajectories Ø 3 D Imaging Ø Artificial Life Ø Broadband Ø Communications Ø Content Creation Ø Data Capture Ø Encryption Ø Gaming Platforms Ø Gaming Storage Ø Human Interfacing Ø Image Recognition Ø Information Coding Ø Information Displaying Ø Information Retrieval Ø Interactivity ØLanguage Understanding Ø Embedded System Ø Multimode Ø Person Identification Ø Pin Pointing Ø Printing Atoms Ø Processing Ø Profiling Ø Seamless Ubiquitous Access Ø Security Ø Sensing Ø Shadowing Ø Storage Ø Virtual Presence Ø Terminals/Wearable
Technology Trajectories Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in HEIDELBERG, Germany – November 9 th , 2004 You are invited to join!
Technologies Trajectories Artificial Life Ø Robotics Ø Virtual Reality Ø Self creation: assembling / replicating Ø Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented ü Towards increased flexibility ü Support variety of application fields ü Today: Europe, USA, Japan ü Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl. field Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented Ø Autonomous ü Towards real independence ü Support remote exploration, Am. I ü Today: Japan, USA, Europe ü Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ? Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented Ø Autonomous Ø Symbiotic ü Towards closer, spontaneous interactions, seamless integration, smarter robots ü Support augmented life, healthcare, prosthetics ü Today: USA ü Tomorrow: USA, ? Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented Ø Autonomous Ø Symbiotic Ø Social ü Towards seamless interaction ü Entertainment, Education, … ü Today: USA ü Tomorrow: USA, Japan Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented Ø Autonomous Ø Symbiotic Ø Social Ø Micro. Robots ü Towards better movement capabilities nano. Robots for health care ü Support ambient exploration, sensing ü Today: USA (nano. Robots), Europe ü Tomorrow: ? Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics Ø Production oriented Ø Autonomous Ø Symbiotic Ø Social Ø Micro. Robots Ø Swarm (Physical, Sw) ü Towards collective autonomous intelligence ü Support ambient sensing, Meta-Info harvest ü Today: USA ü Tomorrow: USA Trajectories
Disruptions: Looking for “x” Disruption Time
Looking for “x” in processing ? Smart Obj. GRID PDA Mainframes PC Tablet PC Mini Time
Looking for “x” in health care Understanding Specificity Symbioses Bio-Substitution Monitoring Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Human Genoma Disruptions, signpost Time
Looking for “x” in health care Symbioses Bio-Substitution Monitoring Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Human Genoma Disruptions, signpost Wet Ware Bio Printing Sensors – U. Acc. Hi. Sp. Processing Molecular comp. Time
Disruptions Ø Transformation of Products into Services Ø The Disappearance of the Computer Ø Ubiquitous seamless connectivity Ø Changing Traffic Patterns Ø Infinite Bandwidth Ø Disposable Products Ø Autonomous Systems Ø From Content to Packaging Ø The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
From Products to Services
From Products to Services Ø Technological Enabling Factors § Embedding of communications capabilities § Rising of profiling § Cheaper production processes § Embedded Systems § Seamless Ubiquitotus Access § Communications
From Products to Services Ø Technological Enabling Factors Ø Market Driven Factors § Products becoming commodities § Loss of differentiation capabilities § Increased copycat possibilities
From Products to Services Ø Technological Enabling Factors Ø Market Driven Factors Ø Industry Impact § Transformation into service companies § Shortening of products’ life cycle § Strong increase in call centers § Automated customised assistance § Increased globalisation of the market § Restructuring of the value chain
From Products to Services Ø Technological Enabling Factors Ø Market Driven Factors Ø Industry Impact Ø Market Sectors Affected § Health care § Entertainment § Transportation § Consumer appliances § Education §…
From Products to Services Ø Technological Enabling Factors Ø Market Driven Factors Ø Industry Impact Ø Market Sectors Affected Ø Likeliness to happen § Disruption is already occurring § Connectivity bundled as a service feature § Appliance bundled in connectivity
Key Technology Trajectories Prague, October 22 nd, 2004 Roberto Saracco roberto. saracco@tilab. com
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