Key labour market, skills and population statistics for the Humber LEP area
Introduction: Population and Spatial Context
Headline population statistics… • The population of the Humber in context: – The total population of the Humber LEP area is estimated to be 917, 600 in 2011 (Source: ONS, 2011 Census of Population). – The local distribution shows that the East Riding of Yorkshire accounts for 36. 4% of the population followed by Hull (30%), North Lincolnshire (18. 2%) and North East Lincolnshire (17. 4%) – Between 2001 and 2011 the pupation of the Humber LEP area grew by over 53, 000 representing a rate of population growth of over 6%. – Some 17. 4% of the total Yorkshire and Humber population live within the boundary of the Humber LEP.
Population characteristics…. . Source: Census of Population, ONS, 2011
Radii from Hull…. .
Manufacturing Headlines…. . • • • The Humber LEP has one of the highest (UK) concentrations of manufacturing employment, currently estimated at 18. 9% of all employment in the LEP (on an FTE basis). The Humber LEP manufacturing workforce is currently estimated at 62, 000 The sector contributes some £ 3. 5 billion to total output in the Humber LEP – accounting for 26. 1% of total sectoral output (one of the highest sub regional figures in the UK), this proportion is set to grow marginally over the next three years (in a difficult trading context) indicating the high value added nature of the manufacturing offer in the Humber.
Housing costs… • • Source: HM Land Registry, year to June 2012 The average house price in the East Riding of Yorkshire is £ 130, 390 – some 65% below average house price in London (house prices contracted by 4% in year to June 2012). The average house price in Hull is £ 67, 779 – some 81. 4% below average house price in London (house prices contracted by 4% in year to June 2012). The average house price in North Lincolnshire is £ 104, 701 – some 71. 3% below average house price in London (house prices contracted by 4% in year to June 2012). The average house price in North East Lincolnshire is £ 77, 018 – some 78. 9% below average house price in London (house prices contracted by 4% in year to June 2012).
The Economy: Productivity
Median Gross Weekly Pay (full time workers) • Significantly lower median wage rates in Hull and North East Lincs. • Substantial fall in wage rates over the period in the East Riding of Yorkshire.
Hours Worked Source: ASHE • NE Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire have greater median hours worked. • Those areas with highest concentrations of manufacturing employment typically work longer hours on average (per worker) North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), ONS – 2009 to 2011
Productivity • Current estimates suggest that productivity per worker ranges from £ 38, 100 in the East Riding to £ 42, 500 per worker in Hull. • Three of the local economies which make up the Humber LEP have a level of productivity per worker which is above the Yorkshire and Humber average in 2012 (Hull, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire).
Source: Regional Econometric Model, March 2012. s, al et M ry st du In l ta To s ie ilit Ut ls rin g g rin ica em Ch ee gin g& in in M s& al er in M En n ns tio tu uf ac ica un m an r. M m Co es vic rin g ct io ns tru Co er s. S es te )S er ub lic sin Bu he Ot t& l& sp or an Tr cia an Fin yp nl ai hi ng Fis Ca d an el s& ot io n, H or es try , F m r( he Ot ut rib st Di re tu ric ul Ag Productivity in the Humber 250. 00 200. 00 150. 00 100. 00 Humber 50. 00 UK 0. 00
Productivity by sector, 2011 Industry East Riding Hull NE Lincs N Lincs Fuel Refining 154. 62 155. 64 154. 89 154. 74 155. 64 177. 04 Gas, Electricity & Water 138. 15 138. 16 138. 15 140. 56 154. 99 Chemicals 117. 78 117. 76 117. 77 117. 78 119. 17 129. 87 Communications 69. 23 70. 2 76. 48 Minerals 57. 08 57. 01 57. 09 57. 08 57. 07 57. 74 44. 59 Food, Drink & Tobacco 56. 35 56. 36 56. 35 57. 38 67. 12 Transport Equipment 55. 14 55. 17 55. 37 55. 14 55. 6 61. 75 Machinery & Equipment 52. 08 52. 07 52. 91 54. 74 49 49 49. 09 48. 94 48. 99 49. 95 38. 47 Metals 42. 96 43. 42 42. 25 Transport 42. 03 42. 04 42. 03 42. 68 47. 05 Construction 41. 94 42. 64 39. 61 Electrical & Optical Equipment 40. 89 41. 58 57. 37 Wholesaling 40. 45 41. 17 45. 41 Industry Total 38. 08 42. 26 41. 65 41. 97 40. 67 40. 91 45. 8 34. 41 34. 42 34. 41 34. 86 36. 83 Other Manufacturing NEC Rubber & Plastics Source: Regional Econometric Model, March 2012. Humber Yorkshire UK
Travel to Work and the “Skills Pool”
Skills pool drive times Hull…. .
Skills pool drive times Scunthorpe…. .
Skills pool drive times Grimsby…. .
Travel to work flows…. . National Lifestyle Survey, Acxiom, 2010 and REIU 8% of usually resident working age in employment travel to work in areas outside the LEP
Travel to work out flows…. . Of the 8% of Humber residents who travel outside to work, the greatest proportion travel to York (26. 4%) National Lifestyle Survey, Acxiom, 2010 and REIU
The Supply of Labour
Labour pool…. . Current estimates indicate that: • There are over 100, 000 skilled and semi-skilled workers in the manufacturing, construction and logistics sectors • There are over 18, 000 science and technology professionals and associate professionals working in the private sector and HE in the Humber. Source: Regional Econometric Model, March 2012.
FE graduate pool…. . • • • 132, 000 FE and apprenticeship qualifications were awarded in the Humber in 2010/2011 (Source: BIS Skills Funding Agency Data Service, 2012). 54% of these qualifications were awarded to those under 19 whilst 46% were awarded to those over 19 (the 19+ cohort) - (Source: BIS Skills Funding Agency Data Service, 2012). The profile of the qualifications (all qualifications level 2 or higher) awarded indicates that: – – – • Sectoral analysis shows that; – – – – • 4. 1% were awarded as intermediate or higher level apprenticeships 9. 3% were awarded through employer work place based accreditation 77% through FE colleges 1, 260 qualifications were awarded in chemicals, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, nuclear, oil, gas, petroleum and polymer sectors. 2, 260 in construction 2, 440 in freight and logistics 1, 380 in environmental industries 1, 280 in process manufacturing 2, 210 in science, engineering and manufacturing technologies 2, 790 in telecommunications and business information technology Close to 11% of FE, work place learning and apprenticeship qualifications (14, 000) were awarded in key sectors vital to the Humber’s high skill manufacturing and technology sectors. Source: SFA, 2012
HE graduate pool…. . • • • In 2010/2011 some 3, 236 students graduated from HE institutions in the Humber (principally Hull University), with 15. 1% of the degrees post-doctoral and 72. 2% awarded as first degrees (Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency, 2012). Analysis of this group shows that 36% of the degrees were awarded to local students (the highest total locally was in Hull which accounted for 19% of degrees awarded). Source: HESA, 2012. Humber HE institutions also attract students from around the UK and globally as the table shows (Source : HESA, 2012) Analysis of HE degrees awarded in 2011/2012 in the Humber indicates some 140 degrees were awarded in disciplines directly relevant to manufacturing (and manufacturing processes). Over 170 science, engineering and information technology professionals graduated from HE institutions in the Humber Source: HESA, 2012
HE Institutions within the Humber Catchment area Total postgraduate Total undergraduate Total HE Total all students 8, 685 27, 820 36, 510 10, 060 25, 115 35, 175 The University of Leeds 8, 180 24, 255 32, 435 Teesside University* 3, 420 23, 845 27, 265 27, 455 Leeds Metropolitan University 4, 100 22, 920 27, 020 The University of Sheffield 8, 950 18, 005 26, 960 The Nottingham Trent University 4, 590 22, 255 26, 845 The University of Hull 3, 840 19, 480 23, 320 The University of Huddersfield 4, 040 17, 140 21, 180 The University of Sunderland* 2, 860 14, 920 17, 780 17, 930 The University of York 5, 045 11, 630 16, 675 The University of Lincoln* 1, 590 10, 415 12, 000 14, 535 The University of Bradford 3, 050 10, 525 13, 570 York St John University 880 5, 065 5, 950 Leeds Trinity University College 660 2, 820 3, 480 Bishop Grosseteste University College Lincoln 535 1, 770 2, 305 70, 485 257, 980 328, 470 331, 345 Total England* 491, 395 1, 605, 825 2, 097, 215 2, 128, 740 Total UK* 588, 720 1, 912, 580 2, 501, 295 2, 562, 100 Institution Sheffield Hallam University The University of Nottingham Total* *Total includes FE students Source: HESA, 2012
Major employers…. .
The Demand for Labour: Vacancies and Sought Occupations
Occupation to Vacancy Ratios, 2009 - 2012 16 14 12 10 July 2009 - June 2010 8 July 2010 - June 2011 July 2011 - June 2012 6 4 2 0 Humber Yorkshire and The Humber Great Britain Source: ONS 2012
Sought Occupation to Vacancy ratio in the Humber, October 2011 -September 2012* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
Sought Occupation to Vacancy Ratio, Humber & South Yorkshire, October 2011 -September 2012* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
Top 20 Most Sought Occupations in Humber* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
Top 20 Sought Occupations in the Humber and South Yorkshire, 2011 -2012* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
Top 20 Vacancies in the Humber* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
Top 20 Vacancies in Humber and South Yorkshire* Source: ONS 2012 *This is based on the priority occupations identified by Humber LEP
(Un)employment
00 8 r 2 08 20 ar M ch 00 9 20 09 M ay 20 09 Ju Se ly pt 2 em 00 9 No ber 2 ve m 009 be r 2 Ja nu 009 ar y M 201 ar 0 ch 20 10 M ay 20 10 Ju Se ly pt 2 em 01 0 No ber 2 ve m 010 be r 2 Ja nu 010 ar y M 201 ar 1 ch 20 11 M ay 20 11 Ju Se ly pt 2 em 01 1 No ber 2 ve m 011 be r 2 Ja nu 011 ar y M 201 2 ar ch 20 12 M ay 20 12 Ju Se ly pt 2 em 01 be 2 r 2 01 2 y 2 ar nu Ja be be r m ve No em pt Se Rate of Unemployment, as measured by Claimant Count 9 8 7 6 Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire 5 Doncaster 4 Rotherham Barnsley 3 North Lincolnshire Sheffield 2 East Riding of Yorkshire UK 1 0 Source: Claimant Count data, ONS 2012
Change in Claimant Count Rate, 2008 -2012 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Rotherham North Lincolnshire Source: Claimant Count data, ONS 2012 Sheffield Barnsley Doncaster East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull, City of UK
Youth Unemployment, 2008 -2012 40. 0 NE Lincs 35. 0 Hull 30. 0 Sheffield 25. 0 Doncaster 20. 0 Barnsley 15. 0 Rotherham East Riding 10. 0 N Lincs 5. 0 UK 0. 0 jul 2007 -jun 2008 jul 2008 -jun 2009 Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS 2012 jul 2009 -jun 2010 jul 2010 -jun 2011 jul 2011 -jun 2012
% Change in Youth Unemployment, 2008 -2012 120% 100% Sheffield 80% Barnsley NE Lincs Doncaster 60% UK East Riding Hull 40% Rotherham N Lincs 20% 0% Sheffield Barnsley NE Lincs Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS 2012 Doncaster UK East Riding Hull Rotherham N Lincs
Change in Overall Unemployment, 2008 -2012 18. 0 16. 0 14. 0 Hull 12. 0 Doncaster NE Lincs 10. 0 Rotherham Sheffield 8. 0 Barnsley N Lincs 6. 0 East Riding UK 4. 0 2. 0 0. 0 jul 2007 -jun 2008 jul 2008 -jun 2009 Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS 2012 jul 2009 -jun 2010 jul 2010 -jun 2011 jul 2011 -jun 2012
% Change in Overall Unemployment, 2008 -2012 120% 100% East Riding 80% Doncaster Sheffield NE Lincs 60% Rotherham Hull Barnsley 40% UK N Lincs 20% 0% East Riding Doncaster Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS 2012 Sheffield NE Lincs Rotherham Hull Barnsley UK N Lincs
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