K 4 D What have we learned What

K 4 D: What have we learned? What Next? • Bob Frosch • KSG • BCSIA • K 4 D • March 25, 2004

On a somber note: • I dedicate this presentation to our friend and colleague: • Vicki Norberg-Bohm • Olav Hasholem. May she rest in peace.

• “Science by itself has no impact on society. Its impact is mediated through the professions, all of which are concerned with design in some sense. ” – Harvey Brooks • Paper presented at: IEEE Workshop on National Goals, Science Policy, and Technology Assessment • Warrenton, VA, April 26 -28, 1972 • (IEEE Trans. Syst. , Man, Cybern. , vol. SMC-2, pp. 584 -588, Nov. 1972)

S&T as “if/then”: (“If we do this, then that is likely to happen. ”) • Politics is the battle over which “that”s to choose. – But…. it frequently poses as a battle over which “if”s to choose. • This is usually left confused, or, at best, implicit. • It should be made explicit!

You can’t make changes without changing things! “How ya gonna keep ‘em down on the farm after they’ve seen Paree? ” (WWI popular song)

Some Conclusions (1): • 1. We frequently have knowledge which is not used. • 2. Dialogue and cooperation between ‘producers’ and ‘users’ of knowledge is key to success. • 3. Successful results need action oriented leadership.

Some conclusions (2): • 4. ‘Boundary organizations’ are needed in this process • 5. Linking global knowledge to local action is a ‘systems’ problem requiring a ‘Project’ orientation and organization.

Systems Engineering • Assertion: – The conclusions point towards the use of a formal engineering discipline: – Systems Engineering • (Which incorporates, and sometimes is even called: Project Engineering. ) – (Further Note: One can buy software packages for Project Engineering. They are heavy with items like: Work Breakdown Structures, Flow Diagrams, PERT Diagrams, Line of Balance Charts, Budget Formats, Schedule Formats, Organizational Diagrams, Manning Structures…)

Systems Engineering: – “Systems engineering is the discipline of managing the development of complex systems. ” – “First, it makes sure we understand the question before designing the answer. ” (iterative) – “Second, it coordinates, focuses, and balances the technical efforts of all involved throughout the development process. ” • Quotes from: – Martin, J. N. , Systems Engineering Guidebook – Copyright Lucent Technologies, 1997 » Pub: CRC Press

Some Caveats • Not a panacea: a framework, a process, a system of thinking, a method. • Many variations, which can be confusing. • Can fail by being a gateway to tedious & infinite bureaucracy: process not product!) • As with other disciplines it requires education, training and practice. • It is NOT ‘paint by numbers’! • Its not everyone’s cup of tea.

I have been trying to learn how to do/supervise this process for > 50 years I can only try to convey the flavor of the subject…. : which is heavy in structured question asking.

Some Key Questions asked in Systs Engg: (The following material draws heavily from Martin) (Consider this as iterative. ) • • Need --> Operations concept --> Functional Requirements --> System Architecture --> Allocated Requirements --> Detailed Design --> Implementation --> Test

Need • What needs are we trying to fill? • What is wrong with the current situation? • Is the need clearly articulated?

Operations concept • Who are the intended users? • How will they use our products? • How is this different from the present?

Functional Requirements • What specific service will we provide? • To what level of detail? • Are element interfaces well defined?

System Architecture • What is the overall plan of attack? • What elements make up the overall approach? • Are these complete, logical, and consistent?

Allocated Requirements • Which elements address which requirements? • Is the allocation appropriate? • Are there any unnecessary requirements? – [Refers to allocation of functions and constraints (eg mass, volume, power…) to elements of the system]

Detailed Design • Are the details correct? • Do they meet the requirements? • Are the interfaces satisfied?

Implementation • Will the solution be satisfactory in terms of cost and schedule? • Can we reuse existing pieces?

Test • What is our evidence of success? • Will the customer be happy? • Will the users’ needs be met?

Some Life Cycle Activities (Considered throughout as iterative process. ) • • Definition Development (for K 4 D: R&D) Production Deployment (getting it to customers/field) Support (training, maintenance, spares, etc) Operations (using the products) Disposition (at end of life)

Background Note: Must Parse “Local Knowledge” Into: Local circumstances Local problems Local beliefs Local knowledge Local solutions

Definition (Agriculture Example) • Definition: – What are we trying to do? – How do we know that’s right? • Do we know what potential customers, users need/want? • If not, how do we find out? – 1. Put more food into subsistence farmers mouths in location X? – 2. Improve crop yields? – 3. Decrease water use? – 4. Decrease pesticide use? – 5. Or…. ?

Definition (2) (Ag) • If 1. Above, some past possible examples: – Emigrate (the Irish solution) – Send some people away to make $$$ (the Mexican solution) – Send food (the UNICEF solution, sometimes) – Cash crops (the Colonial solution) – Better crop systems (the CIGIAR solution) • I’ll assume we decided on the CIGIAR way

Definition: (3) (Ag) • If 1. : What controls food quantity getting to mouths? : (May require analysis/research. ) – Intrinsic plant yield properties? – Water? – Loss to pests during growth? – Storage means? – Loss to pests, etc. during storage? – Better farming practices? – Several together? Or…. ?

Definition/R&D (Ag) • If intrinsic plant yield controls, then: – Do better yielding varieties exist? – If not, can they be developed? – If so, Who? Where? – Will the knowledge be widely applicable (ie beyond place X)? – If yes, perhaps a central lab? – Does one exist, or must one be created? – How tight should the coupling between the users and developers be?

R&D (Ag) • Develop new varieties. – How? – How propagate? • Seeds? Cuttings? – Special Ag problems/requirements? • • Particular soil properties? New pests? Water, fertilizer requirements? Special cultivation? – Other possible problems? • Special preparation for food use? • Palatability?

R&D (2) (Ag) • How test? • On site testing required? – Who does this? – Is a local lab required? Wise? – How get useful user participation? • Who selects user testers? How? – During R&D or when R&D ‘completed’?

Production (Ag) • When developed, who produces in quantity? – Gov’t? Commercial? Local? • If commercial, – Grant monopoly? , Open competitive bid? – Who owns rights? • Subsidize production? Subsidize purchase? • Where produce?

Deployment (Ag) • Sold or given to users? – If sold, subsidized? – Where do users get the $$$? • Logistics of getting it to the users. – Inventory, Shipment, etc. – If fertilizer needed, where come from? – Where do users get $$$ for fertilizer, etc. if needed? • (Additional institutions required at user end? )

Deployment (2) (Ag) • Other locations besides X? • All locations treated alike, or…? • New institutions required?

Support (Ag) • Replenishing consumables? (eg seed, fert. ) • Training required for users? – Eg: Special handling of seed? Cuttings? • Auxiliary specialists required? – for repair of equipment, – problem solving support – reporting unexpected difficulties

Operations (Ag) • Is a transition period from old to new needed? – If so, how manage? – Who manages it? – How long for transition to ‘steady state’? • Special support required in ‘steady state’? – Who provides it? How? • Inside or outside suppliers? • Eg: A local extension service? • Eg: A local lab? – Local people? – How educated and trained?

Operations (2) (Ag) • How deal with inevitable other expected changes? (eg social? economic? ) • End result: Happy, well fed farmers? – If not, what went wrong? Can it be fixed? What did we learn for next time?

Disposition • Possibly not very relevant to Ag case? – But…the issue of residues, Ag waste and byproducts, etc. must be considered. )

What Next? • Test hypothesis against cases? • Design work? – Systems Engineering designs for: • • • Institutions? Projects? Requirements generation? Leadership searches? Generating missing knowledge?

EG: A Sustainable International Development ‘Peace Corps’? : • • Project orientation Selection Training Mentoring Teams $$$$ to spend Technical and specialized backup as needed

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