July 2011 Threats facing Israel 1 Demographic

July 2011

Threats facing Israel: 1. Demographic issues 2. Security: conventional, terrorism, long-range missiles 3. Delegitimization

Democracy Jewish National Home Demography Territory

The reality in 1937 400, 000 Jews 960, 000 Arabs 17% Of the land of Mandate Palestine “a conflict between two national movements whose claims are valid and may not be reconciled… other than by partition…” (The royal commission report, 1937)

The reality in 1947 638, 000 Jews 1, 200, 000 Arabs 55% of the land of Mandate Palestine “…only through the partition can the two conflicting national aspirations have a real expression” (The 1947 partition committee report)

The reality in 1949 “The IDF can occupy the entire territory between the Jordan River and the sea. But what kind of a country will we have then, assuming that there are elections and that Dir Yassin is not our policy. We will have a Knesset with an Arab majority. In the trade off between a whole country and a Jewish state, we have chosen the Jewish state”. David Ben Gurion (Knesset, April, 1949) 700, 000 Jews 160, 000 Arabs 78% Of the land Of Mandate Palestine

Lebanon Syria Land of Israel/Palestine: Size: 28, 000 Sq km Population: Israel: Jews – 5. 55 M; Arabs – 1. 25 M Mediterranean Sea West Bank 20. 7% Gaza Strip 1. 3% Israel 78% West Bank and Gaza Strip: Jews – 0. 5 M; Arabs – 4. 1 Jordan Egypt

2015 48. 6% 80. 8% 2025 43. 9% 78. 3% 2050 33% 77%

The Two-State Solution is the only way to preserve Israel’s existence as a Jewish & democratic State

Are 1967 Borders Defensible ? Can the security of Israel be maintained without control of the West Bank?

Defensible borders must be determined by five factors: 1. What is the political scenario? 2. Who is threatening us? 3. What is the threat? 4. What is Israel's ability? 5. What are the alternatives in controlling the area?

The Old Threats: 1. Western front - Egypt 2. Eastern front- Jordan, Syria and Iraq- 10 -12 armored & infantry Divisions. 3. Terrorism

Security Responses: 1. Strategic depth West Bank & Sinai Peninsula 2. Early warning capability 3. Border Patrols

The present-day threats are completely different

Potential Threats in the present and foreseeable future: 1. Long-range missiles & rockets from Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. 2. Terrorism 3. Palestinian conventional military threat

40 km Sharon's containment program since 1977 and its lack of relevance to the new threats 40 km

Security arrangements required in the Palestinian State 1. Demilitarization 2. Presence of international forces 3. Early warning stations 4. Israeli control of airspace Palestine Israel Palestine

International & regional arrangements required 1. Regional cooperation mechanisms 2. International arrangements 3. Regional peace agreement

Two-state solution: There is a plan & there is a partner

Required T. O. R • Borders: 1967 lines as the basis and territorial exchanges on a 1: 1 ratio • Jerusalem: the division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals • Refugees: return of refugees to the State of Palestine and an international mechanism for compensation • Security: the Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end.

Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008) Settlers – 85% Area – 6. 5%

Palestinian proposal In Annapolis (2008) Settlers – 70% Area – 2%

Jerusalem The Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008)

Jerusalem Palestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008)

The Historical Basin Palestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008) - a division of sovereignty in accordance with the Clinton proposal Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008) – The internationalization of the basin with five members: Israel, Palestine, USA, Jordan and Saudi Arabia

Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state. Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000 -5000 each year for 5 years Palestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 10, 000 each year for 10 years Compensation – an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue

Why is it urgent to get an agreement as soon as possible?

An agreement is necessary before: • • • The existing political leadership is replaced Iran - the destructive power - achieves nuclear capability Hamas takes over the PLO The international community begins to impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies

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