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Judge Business School Creating World-Class Supply Chains Matthias Holweg Ph. D. Judge Business School Judge Business School Creating World-Class Supply Chains Matthias Holweg Ph. D. Judge Business School University of Cambridge Email: m. [email protected] cam. ac. uk World Bank - Knowledge Economy Forum VI Cambridge, April 17 2007

Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing supply chains The role of technology The automotive industry § § Global trends The case of Slovakia Conclusions § Policy recommendations

Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing supply chains The role of technology The automotive industry § § Global trends The case of Slovakia Conclusions § Policy recommendations

Why do we talk about it? Traditional thinking: competition is driven by the 4 Why do we talk about it? Traditional thinking: competition is driven by the 4 P’s § Today: supply chain capabilities determine competitiveness! § Wal-Mart versus K-Mart § Compaq/HP versus Dell A final product is not the sole achievement of the OEM § Customer experience is determined by supply chain: quality, cost, delivery § Significant proportion of value sourced from suppliers! Supply chains are connected systems: § Competitiveness of one tier is a function of the supply and distribution functions, i. e. surrounding tiers. “Value Chains compete, not individual companies!” (Christopher 1992)

“Islands of Excellence” or Optimal Supply Chain? 100 Average Source: Holweg and Pil, “The “Islands of Excellence” or Optimal Supply Chain? 100 Average Source: Holweg and Pil, “The Second Century”, MIT Press 2004 Distribution Customer Distribution Outbound Transit 73% Dispatch Assembly WIP On-site Parts Inbound Transit Finished Parts Assembly WIP Pre-Assembly WIP In-house Parts 0 Assembly Plant 6% Raw Materials Min and components 21% Bought-in Parts 50 Raw Material Days of Inventory Max

Features of High-performing Supply Chains Long-term collaborative relationships § Trust and commitment, respect of Features of High-performing Supply Chains Long-term collaborative relationships § Trust and commitment, respect of the right of mutual existence Single or dual sourcing § § Component volume is adjusted according to performance Constant positive pressure by dual sourcing Improvement § § Collaboration with suppliers on operational improvement; example: Toyota’s Supplier Support Center (TSSC) in Kentucky Annual cost reductions are realised in collaboration, not isolation Operations and logistics § § § Level production schedules to avoid spikes in the supply chain Milk-round delivery systems that can handle mixed-load, small-lot deliveries Disciplined system of JIT delivery windows at the plant; suppliers deliver only what is needed, even if this compromises load efficiency in transport

The Role of Technology The ‘Holy Grail’ in curing supply chain ills? Example: ‘Bullwhip The Role of Technology The ‘Holy Grail’ in curing supply chain ills? Example: ‘Bullwhip problem’ § Demand visibility is key: RFID / Auto. ID, EDIFACT, EPOS, CPFR § …yet they only work if the planning systems use this information! Example: transaction costs in automotive § COVISINT (est. 2000) and the B 2 B/e-commerce revolution § Predicted savings of $1, 000 per vehicle in transaction costs! The Role of Technology § Technology alone is not a sufficient, it can assist problem solving § If the underlying processes are not capable, technology will fail § It is a means to an end, not an end in itself!

Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing supply chains The role of technology The automotive industry § § Global trends The case of Slovakia Conclusions § Policy recommendations

Production by Region 1975 -2005 Production by Region 1975 -2005

Auto Industry: Major Trends Overall global growth by 1. 85% CAGR since 1975 Substitution Auto Industry: Major Trends Overall global growth by 1. 85% CAGR since 1975 Substitution of production with adjacent low-cost regions Major growth of production in China (2000 -05: x 5. 2), and India (2000 -05: x 1. 7), - 4% in Western Europe Auto industry is regionalising, not globalising! What does this mean for the dynamics of competition? Competing in a global, distributed industry: § § Future competition on cost is a futile battle. . Rely on quality? Brand? Design? Proximity to customer?

Continuous Window of Opportunity Product Features Established Player Market Demand New Entrant Time Any Continuous Window of Opportunity Product Features Established Player Market Demand New Entrant Time Any labour cost advantage is temporary! Source: adapted from Christensen (1997)

The Auto Industry in Emerging Countries Automotive industry very attractive § Job multiplier of The Auto Industry in Emerging Countries Automotive industry very attractive § Job multiplier of 5 -7 for every assembly job § Technology transfer Many subsidies, but questions of long-term viability! The case of Slovakia’s auto industry § VW Bratislava, PSA Trnava, Kia Zilina, growing cluster CZ, PL, HU § 5 m inhabitants, c. 900 k production, domestic sales of <80 k units Challenges § Logistics: lead-time to customer, reliability of supply § Labour shortage, migration and rising compensation Migration further east is inevitable § Domestic demand in Russia, growing labour cost differential

Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing Outline Supply chain mangement § § § Why is it important? Features of high-performing supply chains The role of technology The automotive industry § § Global trends The case of Slovakia Conclusions § Policy recommendations

Conclusion: Supply Chain ‘Enemies’ Common logic behind all SCM initiatives! Inventory & delays § Conclusion: Supply Chain ‘Enemies’ Common logic behind all SCM initiatives! Inventory & delays § Time worsens ‘swing’ of amplification § Decision delays require stock § Safety stock decisions send false signals Unreliability or uncertainty § Any kind of uncertainty needs to be covered with inventory § Unreliable processes cause unreliable delivery Hand-offs or decision points § Every hand-off or tier in the system bears danger of distortion! ‘Inventory is a substitute for information’

Policy Recommendations Infrastructure is a always a concern. . …but uncertainty is a sure Policy Recommendations Infrastructure is a always a concern. . …but uncertainty is a sure killer of any location decision! § Customs clearance § Currency § Regulation (labour, traffic, taxation) § Crime & bribes Supply chains are connected systems: § Labour cost differential is only a short-term advantage § Strong need to attract suppliers, not just manufacturers! § Need to build local competencies, rather than “screw-driver factories” § Domestic demand is not essential if logistics systems work

Centre for Competitiveness and Innovation, Judge Business School, Univ. of Cambridge http: //www-innovation. jbs. Centre for Competitiveness and Innovation, Judge Business School, Univ. of Cambridge http: //www-innovation. jbs. cam. ac. uk Judge Business School International Motor Vehicle Program Massachusetts Institute of Technology http: //imvp. mit. edu Email: m. [email protected] cam. ac. uk