Jolt to the System The Transformative Impact of

Jolt to the System: The Transformative Impact of Nanotechnology Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Troy, New York November 16, 2004 © 2004

Industrial Revolutions First Revolution (1780– 1840) Based in United Kingdom Ø Steam Engine Ø Textile Industry Ø Mechanical Engineering © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Second Revolution (1840– 1900) Based in Europe – England, France, Germany Ø Railways Ø Steel Industry © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Third Revolution (1900– 1950) Based in United States Ø Electric Engine Ø Heavy Chemicals Ø Automobiles Ø Consumer Durables © 2004

Industrial Revolutions Fourth Revolution (1950–Present) Based in Pacific Basin – California, Japan Ø Synthetics Ø Organic Chemicals (Oil) Ø Computers © 2004

The Next Industrial Revolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ? ? ) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil? Ø Nanotechnology Ø Molecular Manufacturing © 2004

Accelerated Impacts s ct Industrial Revolutions Im pa So cie ta l Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Time © 2004

Jolt to the System The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler © 2004

Jolt to the System The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale. © 2004

Transformative Impact The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. © 2004

The Next Revolution § Not just new products — a new means of production § Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing § § § systems — exponential proliferation Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries and economic sectors — general -purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation © 2004

Inside a Nanofactory © 2004

Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide. . . or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race Lifesaving medical robots © 2004

Dangers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use Constant intrusive surveillance Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles Unstable arms race leading to war Collective environmental damage from unregulated products Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks) 10. Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks). . . and many more © 2004

What is Needed Now F Awareness of the issues F Technical research F Policy research © 2004

CRN Studies Thirty Essential of Research hoenix, Director Chris P otechnology Responsible Nan Center for Copyright 2004 nology nsible Nanotech Center for Respo A Brooklyn, NY, US

www. Wise-Nano. org A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them. © 2004

www. CRNano. org © 2004