Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory Projection

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Wood Modeling and Measurement Workshop Force on Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 10 -11 May 2010 Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory TOPICS v. Tentative methodology to evaluate domestic emissions from wood burning v. Other uncertain PM sources (diffuse PM emissions from storage, handling and transport ) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory emissions from wood burning Methodology goals u Evaluation of fuel consumption on a more detailed geographical scale for example NUT 3 (provinces or equivalent units) or LAU 2 (municipalities or equivalent units) of Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics as established by Eurostat to: u Obtain more accurate estimates u Use of data to allocate emissions on the EMEP 50 km X 50 km grid (or finest ones, 10 km x 10 km) u Allocation of fuel consumption to different technologies Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning proposed methodology 1 Elaborate fuel sold from statistical sources 2 Evaluate temperature on very detailed space grid by meteorological model 3 Compute energy requirements on climatic areas by energy models based on temperature and census data about fuel use 4 Compare energy requirements with fuel sold 5 Use census data and/or specific survey for fuel/technologies allocation Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study A pilot study was conduced in Italy inside Genova province (NUTS 3 territory) to evaluate natural gas and other fuel consumption on LAU 2 (municipalities) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study ² Temperature trend assessed on an hourly basis, throughout the province on a grid of 1 km x 1 km by meteorological models for the reference year ² Evaluation of the heat demand of the houses for typology by energy model ² Evaluation of total requirements in all the municipalities using data on the stock of houses ² Validation of total computed value for gas with quantity distributed by the gas network ² Comparison of data for wood and liquid fuels with available statistics Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study Temperature model v. Evaluation of the hourly values of temperatures at 1 km x 1 km grid with two meteorological models (MM 5 mesoscale model of PSU/NCAR and Calmet model) v. Assignment to each municipality the temperature of the mesh of City Hall (on national scale can be used 5 km x 5 km, 10 km x 10 km or larger grids depends on orography and climate) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Pilot study – Temperature validation Conparison beween daily average temperature computed and measured at Genova Airport Measured Computed Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study – Degree day v. Evaluation of degree day (is the sum, extended to all days of a conventional one-year period, of the positive differences between the conventional daily temperature, set in Italy at 20 ° C, and the daily outside average temperature) v. Use of degree day as input to energy model Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study Municipality degree day Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study – Energy model ² The heating and hot water requirements of an “average” house was computed with DOCET model (made by Italy CNR / ENEA) in a series of simulations: ² in each municipality (using degree day specific to municipalities) ² for different types of housing (specific to municipalities) about: ² period of construction (old / new house) ² location (city center or isolated) ² type of structure Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study – Energy model ² For a number of other parameters (external finish, top height, number of floors, wall thickness, window type, window area, etc. ) were assigned default values (evaluated with a sensitivity study) ² Total consumption in all the municipalities was obtained by multiplying the heating requirements of an “average” house for the number of houses powered by natural gas, liquid fuels or firewood (source: ISTAT national population census) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Wood burning pilot study – Results ² For natural gas the following result was obtained as total provincial figure: ² Model results 444. 232. 000 m 3 ² Total natural gas distributed by area network 472. 313. 000 m 3 ² The comparison shows that the total calculated is 94% of the distributed quantity ² Given that the data of the gas distribution includes the consumption of small industrial plants, connected to city networks, the correspondence is very satisfactory Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Pilot study – Results ² For wood the following result was obtained as total provincial figure: ² Model results 204. 451 t ² Allowed to cut firewood 15. 350 t ² The comparison shows that the total calculated is 1332% of the data reported in official statistics ² In this case the calculated total is far higher than official figures as expected, but less than, data obtained by a survey conducted on the final consumer in other works: ² Survey data 353. 308 t Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Other uncertain PM sources u Models of transport of pollutants do not explain the measured concentrations of PM in Europe u A possible cause of error is the existence of ghost emissions not evaluated in the inventories u A source of PM rarely assessed, and difficult to assess, is the storage and transportation of solid fuels, raw materials and waste u The next slides give an overview of the activities involved and assess the presence of emission factors and methodologies in the Guidebook, in order to close the gap Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory NFR for storage, handling and transport u 1. B. 1. a Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Coal mining and handling u 1. B. 1. b Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Solid fuel transformation u 2. A. 7. a Quarrying and mining of minerals other than coal u 2. A. 7. b Construction and demolition u 2. A. 7. c Storage, handling and transport of mineral products u 2. C. 5. f Storage, handling and transport of metal products u 6. A Solid waste disposal on land Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Storage, handling and transport Methodology available in the Guidebook Tier 1 generic EF, high uncertainty Tier 2 no EF or EF as for Tier 1 Tier 3 no methodology only some generic reference to US EPA methodology Activity not defined in NFR Transport of solid fuels (coal, wood and wood waste) Transport of agriculture products to food industry Transport of solid waste Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Final consideration on methodologies Wood burning ²The pilot study will be used to define a generalized methodology for compute fuel consumptions on large scale in the frame of TFEIP activities ²More census detailed data on number of installed facilities by type are useful (promote more detailed census data sheets) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Final consideration on methodologies Storage, handling and transport ü A Tier 3 methodology needs to be developed and Tier 2 and Tier 1 Efs have to be derived from Tier 3 ü US EPA AP 42 methods will be used as base for Tiers development ü (2008) ü 13. 2. 3 Heavy Construction Operations ü 13. 2. 4 Aggregate Handling And Storage Piles (2006) Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010