John Curtin Institute of Public Policy Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010 3/16/2018 1
Changing Demographic Profile “In respect to ageing, between now and 2050, people aged 65 to 84 years will more than double and the number of people aged 85 and over will more than quadruple. By 2050, there will be only 2. 7 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over. Today there is five. ” Wayne Swan, Treasurer 3/16/2018 2
Australian Population Projections Low and Base case Percentage of total population 0 -14 15 -64 65 -84 85 and over Low = popn. growth of 0. 8% p. a. Base = popn. growth of 1. 2% p. a. 2010 19. 1 67. 4 11. 7 1. 8 2050 - Low 2050 - Base 15. 1 17. 2 58. 9 60. 2 20. 0 17. 6 6. 0 5. 1 Source: Treasury projections 3/16/2018 3
National top 20 Building & Population Hotspots* 3/16/2018 4
WA Building & Population Hotspots** 3/16/2018 5
Acknowledgement : Bernard Salt - Address to HIA National Policy Congress, Gold Coast, May 2010 3/16/2018 6
Australian Population Growth 3/16/2018 7
Dwelling Requirements New Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Source: HIA 300, 000 250, 000 200, 000 150, 000 Number 100, 000 50, 000 0 Current projections Small Australia Average annual starts required 3/16/2018 Big Australia Current trend Housing Starts based on current trend 8
Dwelling Requirements Total Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Source: ABS, HIA 2, 750, 000 2, 419, 811 2, 500, 000 2, 250, 000 Current Trend 1, 920, 000 1, 819, 811 Current projections 2, 000 Small Australia 2, 059, 811 1, 750, 000 1, 500, 000 1, 250, 000 1, 000 Number 750, 000 500, 000 250, 000 0 Total new dwellings required 3/16/2018 Big Australia Current Capacity Current trend Potential Capacity 9
Housing Shortfall 3/16/2018 10
Housing Shortfall 3/16/2018 11
Housing Affordability Decline 3/16/2018 12
Housing Shortfall 3/16/2018 13
Average number of persons in household Australia Source: ABS 4130. 0 3/16/2018 14
Obstacles to boosting supply Systemic obstacles to boosting Australia’s supply of housing stock: • Lack of readily available land • Planning delays • Infrastructure tax and charges 3/16/2018 15
State Planning & Building processes for Detached Housing Approvals (1 May 2010) 3/16/2018 16
House and Land 3/16/2018 17
House and Land 3/16/2018 18
Capping of Levies in NSW Example of Reduction in Section 94 Charges Pre December 2008 to June 2010 After 7 June 2010 Local Council (s 94) $58, 970 $20, 000 State Infrastructure Up to $33, 000 $11, 000 Water Charges $18, 000 $0 $0 Total $109, 970 $69, 970 $31, 000 Notes: 1. No exemptions existed prior to December 2008 2. The state Infrastructure Charge (SIC) of $33, 000 was reduced to $11, 000 in the December 2008 announcement. (HIA is cu lobbying to retain this cap beyond July 2011. ) 3. The water charge was also removed in the December 2008 announcement 4. The majority of councils in the SW growth area were granted an exemption to the December 2008 ($20, 000) cap 3/16/2018 19
Infrastructure Backlogs • Significant infrastructure investment backlogs (2005): – Electricity has an under-investment of $1. 15 billion – Gas has an under-investment of $2. 6 billion – Road has an under-investment of $10 billion – Rail has an under-investment of $8. 06 billion 3/16/2018 20 Source : 2005 Australian Infrastructure, Report Card, Institution of Engineers Australia – Water has a potential under-investment of $3
Workforce Profile 3/16/2018 21
Trade & Non-Trade Commencements Seasonally adjusted, 1999 -2009 (‘ 000) 3/16/2018 22
Apprentice Commencements 3/16/2018 23
Apprentice and Trainee Attrition Rates from Contracts, by Occupation 3/16/2018 24
Commonwealth Skilled Occupation List Skills Shortages 1 July 2010 v Air-conditioning mechanic v Architect v Bricklayer v Carpenter & Joiner v Construction project manager v Drainer v Electrician v Fibrous plasterer v Gasfitter v Geotechnical engineer 3/16/2018 v v v Glazier Joiner Painter Plumber Project builder Quantity surveyor Roof plumber Solid plasterer Stonemason Structural engineer Wall & floor tiler 25
Summary of Commonwealth Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry 3/16/2018 26
Summary of State Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry 3/16/2018 27
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