JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv W-P 1 Kenya Vision

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 Kenya Vision 2030: Driving Change in National Development Across Kenya Dr. Wahome Gakuru, Director- SS- NESC

A fresh look at economic development-PD 707104 OUTLINE • Context and objectives • Proposed approach • Project organisation • Next steps 1

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 THE ONE OVERIDING PRINCIPLE • The Vision should be one that: –All Kenyans can identify with; –Kenyans can believe in; –Kenyans can rally to as they do with the Kenya National Anthem & our National Flag; –Is inclusive of Kenya’s diverse cultures, religions, races, & geographic areas of interest. • Therefore, the Vision 2030 Project is not a “Government of the Day” project and should be insulated from Political Competition at all times. 2

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 NESC HAS CRAFTED A DRAFT COUNTRY VISION FOR KENYA Overarching vision A globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030 Vision Economic Strategy Plans and implementation Social To maintain a sustained economic growth of 10% p. a over the next 25 years A just and cohesive society enjoying equitable social development in a clean and secure environment Political An issue-based, people-centered, result-oriented, and accountable democratic political system 3

THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE FROM ACHIEVING THIS VISION IS SIGNIFICANT High growth countries Real GDP growth rates % CAGR Potential Kenya GDP Nominal, $b Singapore (1986 -1996) Dubai (1992 -2002) 153. 4 Hong Kong (1978 -1988) Chile (1998 -1998) Malaysia (1990 -2000) 2005 Medium growth countries India (1995 -2005) 2030 Potential Kenya GDP/capita* $ Singapore (1995 -2005) Malaysia (1995 -2005) Opportunity for Kenya to join the ranks of Middleincome countries by 2030 Nigeria (1995 -2005) 660% South Africa (1995 -2005) Kenya today Kenya (1995 -2005) 10. 0% *Assuming 2% population growth rate similar to 1990 -2005 period Source: Mc. Kinsey; Global Insight 2005 2030 4

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 HOWEVER, A COMPELLING VISION ON ITS OWN IS NOT ENOUGH 1 Developing an aspirational, directional, and inspiring vision around which all stakeholders can rally is a critical first step Vision – 5 yrs Destination A Today 2006 3 The strategy must be supported by a realistic and concrete action plan that will ensure that the strategy is delivered Vision – 10 yrs Destination B 2 The supporting strategy and plans are crucial to achieve a vision Vision – 15 yrs Destination C This vision must absolutely be complemented by a robust and integrated strategy that will help achieve the vision 5

A NUMBER OF FACTORS MAKE THIS AN IDEAL TIME TO ACT Positive momentum created by recent economic successes Strong desire to show additional concrete results, especially in the short term THIS IS AN IDEAL TIME TO ACT Clear window of opportunity to rally the country behind a common vision Need for alignment within Country leadership Source: Interviews; Press release 6

A fresh look at economic development-PD 707104 A MIXED APPROACH BETWEEN PURE STRATEGY AND TACTICS IS CALLED FOR Recommended approach Spectrum of interventions Purely tactical Nature of output Communication campaign 1 month Shorter term high profile economic intervention 5 -6 months Purely strategic Full country strategy 12 -18 months End products Advantages Disadvantages • Effective packaging and communication of successes to date and existing projects • Can be accomplished quickly • Could be beneficial in the short term • Not related to the vision • Very tactical in nature • Robust diagnostic, contours of sector strategy, and identification of landmark projects • Launch of quick wins in the short term • Ensures link between the strategy and projects and the vision • Will lead to short term (9 -12 months) tangible results • Economic insights not as deep and comprehensive as in a full country strategy • Comprehensive • diagnostic, robust strategy and detailed action plans to stimulate growth across all key sectors of economy Significant and sustained economic impact in the long term • Long lead times to tangible improvement results 7

A fresh look at economic development-PD 707104 OUTLINE • Context and objectives • Proposed approach • Project organisation • Next steps 8

Country vision presentation - morocco section-final PROPOSED PROJECT APPROACH Portfolio Phase I – High level diagnostic and benchmarking M 1 Phase II –High level strategies Sectors M 3 M 4 Module X Phase III – Master plan and communication / syndication M 8 Master plan and management approach M 9 Monitoring and implementation dashboard Implications of Vision M 5 M 2 MX High level portfolio diagnostic High level diagnostic of 3 -4 key sectors Diagnostic of quick win projects 2 months M 6 M 7 Portfolio objectives and priorities Contours of sector strategy – 3 -4 key sectors Strategy and plans to deliver quick wins 2 months M 10 Resources M 11 Communication plan M 12 Launch of quick win projects 1 month 9

20040824 -LOP Politique industrielle-v 7 PHASE I – HIGH LEVEL DIAGNOSTIC AND BENCHMARKING Module Implications of Vision Portfolio M 1 M 2 High level portfolio diagnostic Activities End products • Cascade down macro vision to implications at portfolio and • PF 1 Vision implica- • sector levels (e. g. , growth, employment, productivity, etc. ) Understand key success factors to achieve the vision based on experience from other countries • Analyse key socio-economic indicators • Benchmark economy to a relevant "peer group“ as well • as relevant ‘aspirational group’ Identify main barriers to growth by sector tions for the country and by sector • PF 2 Portfolio diagnostic with main growth barriers • Gather and analyse basic sector data, Leveraging available M 3 High level diagnostic of 3 -4 key sectors • Sectors • resources and prior diagnostic studies Understand key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of 3 -4 key sectors Define key breakthrough actions for each sector • Create shortlist of existing and potential quick win projects M 4 Diagnostic of quick win projects • • across all key sectors Understand progress of each project and key bottlenecks Select 3 -5 quick win projects to accelerate (e. g. , based on potential impact and level of visibility • PF 3 High level sector diagnostic • PF 4 Quick win projects to accelerate 10

20040824 -LOP Politique industrielle-v 7 PHASE II – HIGH LEVEL STRATEGIES Module Activities End products • Prioritise sectors, e. g. , based on Portfolio M 5 Portfolio objectives and priorities • • Perform gap analysis for 3 -4 key sectors – M 6 Contours of sector strategy – 3 -4 key sectors Sectors • competitiveness and attractiveness Develop high-level portfolio strategy to achieve overarching vision Understand key linkages, bottlenecks, and inter-dependencies across the identified key sectors (e. g. , transversal themes) • comparing status quo to overall targets Formulate contours of strategy for 3 -4 key sectors in order to close gaps (e. g. , key levers, impact of each lever, priority actions) based on international experience and best practices • PF 5 Priority sectors and portfolio strategy • PF 6 Contours of strategy for 3 -4 key sectors (key levers, impact, and priority actions) for key sectors • Perform in-depth analysis of selected quick win M 7 Strategy and plans to deliver quick wins • • projects to identify actions required to accelerate project Develop robust strategy and concrete implementation plan to ensure successful delivery of project in the short term Align all key stakeholders behind recommended strategy and plan • PF 7 Robust strategy and concrete plans to successfully deliver on quick win projects 11

20040824 -LOP Politique industrielle-v 7 Phase III – MASTERPLAN AND COMMUNICATION/SYNDICATION Module M 8 M 9 M 10 Master plan and management approach Monitoring and implementation dashboard Activities • Develop a detailed master project plan, including activity list, roles and responsibilities, and milestones • Create tools to track progress of implementation, • M 11 Communication plan • M 12 Launch of quick win projects strategy, plan, and material Launch communication • Provide in-depth support to champions of selected • • PF 9 Monitoring dashboard – focus on quick win projects • PF 10 Required resources and options to source them to deliver on the vision Develop options to source required resources • Develop overall communication strategy and plan • Develop communication material • Ensure alignment of all key stakeholders behing • • PF 8 Master plan with initial focus on quick win projects Monitor results versus targets for quick win projects • Analyse required human and financial resources Resources End products quick win projects with project launch Oversee communication campaign surrounding quick wins • PF 11 a Communica • tion strategy, materials and plan PF 11 b Launch of communication • PF 12 Quick win projects successfully launched 12

A fresh look at economic development-PD 707104 OUTLINE • Context and objectives • Proposed approach • Project organisation • Next steps 13

Country vision presentation - morocco section-final Decision A HIGHLY PARTICIPATIVE PROCESS WILL BE FOLLOWED National Steering Committee (public/private sector members) • Relevant Ministers and NESC • members Key sector/economic opinion leaders Inter-ministerial Committee • key Ministries and Support Execution Departments Core/Technical Team • 5 -10 key managers • External support? Ad hoc sector teams • Working team dedicated to specific industries as & When needed Industry specific ‘Sounding Board’ • Relevant administration • Opinion leaders 14

20040824 -LOP Politique industrielle-v 7 ASSIGNED ROLES OF THE VARIOUS STAKEHOLDER GROUPS Frequency of interventions • Decide general orientation, priorities and framework of the Steering committee project • Provide direction to Operational committee • Review project progress every 4 -6 wks • Evaluate the recommendations from the project Once per 4 -6 wks • Define the content of the project and provide direction to the Interministerial committee Core team • Evaluate project progress regularly (every 3 -4 weeks) • Prepare the communication to the Steering committee Once per 3 -4 wks • Assume overall responsibility for quality of recommendations • Establish contact with the various parties involved and act as Core/Techn ical Team coordinator • Actively participate in the day-to-day work and the preparation of recommendations • Ensure skill transfer is taking place • Interface with experts to obtain views on industry developments and use experts as a sounding board for recommendations • Liaise with experts to arrange participation in key meetings and forums Continuous 15

A fresh look at economic development-PD 707104 OUTLINE • Context and objectives • Proposed approach • Project organisation • Progress Made To Date 16

20040824 -LOP Politique industrielle-v 7 Progress To Date • We are in the process of putting together the Three Committees to Lead & Supervise the Project; • We have advertised a “Call for Expression of Interest” Inviting leading international Strategic Consulting firms; • Are in the process of recruiting a Project Director for the day to day management of the Vision 2030 Project. 17

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 NEXT STEPS • Finalize the recruitment of an international firm with extensive experience in helping Governments to transform socio-economically • Finalize the Hiring of the Project Director and a Core Team housed at the NESC • Finalize the appointment of the National Steering Committee to take charge of the over all leadership of the Vision 2030 project under the chairmanship of H. E. The President 18

JOH-JHO 774 -20060119 -Jv. W-P 1 What is Your Orgns Role of in Vision 2030? • Advocacy? • Leadership? • Support? Planning? • Planning? Support? • Implementation? • Monitoring and Evaluation? THANK YOU ALL 19