JDP 3 -40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie Team Leader JDP 3 -40 Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
Recent Headlines • “Overstretched, overwhelmed and over there. ” • “Britain's armed forces, losing their way? ” The Economist, 29 Jan 09 • “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink” Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09 • “Why did it all go wrong. Reassessing British COIN in Iraq. ” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008 • “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade. ” International Affairs, Spring 09
Emerging Concepts & Doctrine
Drivers Towards Instability Driven by Six Mega Trends …Globalization Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it …Shifting Demographics 60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40 -50% Youth Bulge …Weapons of Mass Destruction ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty A US Army View In line with DCDC Strategic Trends …Climate Change Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70, 000 Km 2/yr … 1. 4 B confront environmental fragility …Failed / Fragile States Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high risk …Uncertain Natural Resource Availability World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450 M face severe water shortage
Spectrum of Conflict View Peacetime Military Engagement Limited Intervention Peace Support Operations Counter Irregular Activity Level of violence Major Combat
Operational Theme Increasing Level of Violence
Elements of a Stable State
Fragile States – Downward Spiral
Instability – The Problem
Stabilisation – The Solution
Stabilisation & COIN
Graduated Military Commitment
How does 3 -40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project LWC Tactical Doctrine
Land Tactical Publications
How does 3 -40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project JDP 3 -40 OGDs LWC Tactical Doctrine Allies
JDP 3 -40 sets out the Operational Art for: stabilising fragile or failed states, determining the nature, level, principles and priorities that govern the UK military contribution and the principles governing transitions to civilian and host nation control
Terminology Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a political settlement that institutionalises nonviolent contests for power; and prepare for sustainable social and economic development
• • PART 1: STABILISATION The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states: – the UK approach to the stabilisation – the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts 3 big ideas: – ‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation – central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents), wider population – the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement, amenable to broader UK interests between these actors JDP 3 -40 Macro Structure Part 1 - WHY ? • • PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the development of a political settlement the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key a set of principles for the use of military force PART 2 - WHAT ? PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design, analysis, planning, execution and assessment PART 3 - HOW ?
JDP 3 -40: Key Themes • The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement • Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations • Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do • Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building • Multinationality brings its own complexity • Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan • The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect • Anticipate, learn and adapt. • Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic
Key Conflict Relationship
Questions
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