Japan since 1990 What we know Recession

Japan since 1990 What we know • Recession since 1990 • Challenges to 1955 System – LDP in flux – External challenges (other parties) – Collapse of the left – A new 1 and ½ party system (Left is gone) – Internal challenges (Koizumi) • 2009: Two Party System?

Bubble Economy Collapses, 1990 Pay back loans Banks Loans Companies Government Pay back Loans Build factories Hire people Buy land Build offices

Japanese GDP From Sian Fenner, The Japanese economy and future growth prospects, Department of the Treasury, Australia, http: //www. treasury. gov. au/documents/817/HTML/docshell. asp? URL=05_article_4. asp

Another Look From: http: //japan. blogspot. com/2008/02/japan-q 4 -2007 -gdp. html

GDP Growth 1980 -2013

Evolution of Japanese Parties • • • • Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) • • Komeito (Clean Government Party) • • Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) LDP Breakaway Factions (1992 -93) Sakigake Japan New Party Shinseito Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ) LDP (Spring 1998; LDP alone) Sakigake SDPJ LDP Sakigake (dissolved 2004) SDPJ SDP Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) (4/98) "NOT-LDP" coalition New Frontier Party (NFP) LDP SDP DPJ (2009) Peace and Reform Network Komeito New Komeito NKP New Peace Party • • • United Social Democratic Party (USDP) Liberal League (LDP ally 99 -00; merges with DPJ) • • Japan Communist Party (JCP) 1990 • *Ruling party or coalition at the time in bold New Conservative (LDP ally) (merges with LDP 2003) JCP 7/18/93 JCP June 1994 JCP Dec. 1994 Fall 1996 JCP 1997 -1998 JCP 1999 -2009

PMs in the 1990 s LDP Scandals Takeshita Noboru Uno Sosuke Kaifu Toshiki Miyazawa Kiichi Nov. 1987–June 1989 June–Aug. 1989 8/89– 11/91– 8/93

End of 1955 System Heisei Revolution of Summer 1993 July 18 Election 1990 1993 LDP 275 223 SDP 136 70 Komeito 45 51 Shinseito (Renewal Party) --- 55 (ex-LDP) Shinshinto Japan New Party) ---- 35 (ex-LDP) Sakigake (New Pioneer Party) --- 13 (ex-LDP) Democratic Socialist Party 13 15 Independents 26 34

Conclusions? • • Not-LDP coalition Old parties lose Left loses LDP factional split

But…PMs in the 1990 s Hosokawa New Party (Not-LDP) 8/1993 – 4/1994 Hata New Party (Not-LDP) 4 – 6/1994 Murayama SDP (LDP coalition) 6/1994 – 1/1996 Hashimoto LDP 1/96 -7/98

Big Changes in 1990 s? 1. Electoral Reform in Lower House 1996 1. 300 SMD 2. 180 Proportional representation 2. LDP Party Rules Reform 3. Administrative Reforms (passed 1998; in force 2001)

1. Electoral Reform and New 1½ Party System? (seats in Lower House) New Frontier Party Democratic Party of Japan Kan Naoto 1996 2000 2003 156 0 0 52 178 127 Hatoyama Yukio

2. LDP Rules Changes: LDP Challenged from Within April 2001 LDP Party Rules Changes Koizumi Junichiro (PM 2001 -2006)

More Koizumi

September 2005 Election Koizumi (assassins) vs. Iron Triangle/LDP Anti-Reform factions (rebels) Postal reform (The Stakes) • Policy • The People vs. Iron Triangle • Institutional Change • LDP Future • Koizumi’s legacy

Koizumi Wins • LDP 212 to 296 seats • DPJ 177 -113 seats • Postal reform Bill passes October 2005

But… • Koizumi retires, September 2006 • PMs since the 1990 s Abe Shinzo 9/06 -9/07 Fukuda Yasuo 9/07 -9/08 Aso Taro 9/08 -9/09

2009 Election LDP DPJ 2005 296 113 New PM Hatoyama Yukio (DPJ) 2009 119 308

Party Strength in Lower House

DPJ Victory Why did DPJ win? • LDP weakness • Recession • “Flexicons”

DPJ in Power? • • • Rolling back market reforms? Alliance with the US? Worries about Japanese Identity? Consumers first, producers second? Breaking the Iron Triangle? Real power for the government?

For DPJ: Business as Usual Hatoyama Yukio Kan Naoto Noda Yoshihiko 9/16/09— 6/8/10— 9/2/11— 12/26/12

Great East Japan Earthquake March 11, 2011

The Damage (from Japan Science and Technology Agency)

Before and After

Fukushima Nuclear Reactor

December 2012 Election Pre-2009 Post-2009 Dec. 2012 New PM Abe Shinzo LDP 303 119 294 DPJ 110 308 56 Restoration 0 0 54 Restoration Party Leader Ishihara Shintaro

Party Strength in Lower House with 2012 LDP 350 JSP/SDPJ 300 Komeito/NK P Shinseito 250 200 Shinshinto 150 NFP DPJ 100 Restoration Party 50 Your Party 0 1953 1960 1972 1980 1993 1996 2000 2003 2005 2009 2012

2009 Election: House of Reps single-member districts ■ – DPJ ■ – LDP ■ – PNP ■ – SDP ■ – YP ■ – Independent factions

2012 House of Reps Election Results (single-member districts) LDP DPJ NKP

December 2012 Election

December 2014 Election* 2009 Dec. 2012 December 2014 LDP 119 294 290 DPJ*** 308 56 73 JIP** 0 54 42 *Now 475 seats; 238 for majority **Restoration party became Japan Innovation Party (JIP) in 2014 **Then Merged with DPJ in 2015 ***DPJ is now just Democratic Party: the new DP has 96 seats PM Abe

Questions • Is the 1955 System dead? • Does Japan have a Two-Party System? • When in doubt, back to the LDP? – Stimulus package 2013