
7e70857297fbcbf7feca0946e12baa89.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 34
Japan’s New Economic Strategy in Asia-Pacific: Implications for the EU July X, 2012 Shujiro URATA Waseda University 1
Contents I. Japan’s Economic Situation II. High Economic Growth and Regional Economic Integration in Asia-Pacific III. Japan’s New Economic Strategy in Asia. Pacific IV. Japan-EU EPA/FTA V. Concluding Remarks 2
1. Japan’s Economic Situation Current situation u Low economic growth u Recovering from the Eastern Japan Disaster (March 11, 2011) u Closed economy Future prospects u Declining and aging population u Declining savings rate u Increasing government debt Challenge for achieving economic growth u Increase productivity u Increase economic interaction with growing Asia Solutions u New Economic Strategy in Asia-Pacific u Japan-EU EPA 3
GDP Growth Rates (%) 4
GDP 5
Trade-GDP Ratios (%) 6
Japan’s Declining Population 1, 000 140, 000 6515 -64 120, 000 0 -14 100, 000 80, 000 60, 000 40, 000 20, 000 55 20 50 20 45 20 40 20 35 20 30 20 25 20 20 20 15 20 10 20 05 20 00 20 95 19 90 19 85 19 80 19 75 19 70 19 65 19 60 19 55 19 19 50 0 7
% Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 8
Government Debt-GDP Ratios (%) % Japan 250 US UK Germany 200 France Italy Canada 150 100 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9
II. High Economic Growth and Regional Economic Integration in Asia-Pacific Market-driven Regional Economic Integration u High economic growth achieved by rapid expansion of foreign trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) u Advances in regional economic integration u Expansion of trade and FDI in machinery sector (electronic machinery, transportation machinery) u Increase in parts and components trade u Fragmentation strategy by multinational corporations: formation of regional production networks u Liberalization of trade and FDI policies 10
Total Trade (Exports+Imports) : EU, East Asia and North America 11
Intra-regional Trade Dependence (%) 12
Intra-regional Trade Ratio (%) 13
Shares of East Asia’s Trade with Regions (%) 14
Share of Parts and Components in Intra-regional Trade (%) 15
Declining Tariff Rates 16
Trade Liberalization: Declining Tariff Rates (%) 17
Emergence of institution-driven regional economic integration u Rapid expansion of free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia in the 21 st century u FTA (free trade agreement): free trade (elimination, reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers among FTA members) u In East Asia ASEAN has become a hub of FTAs: 5 ASEAN+1 FTAs have been implemented u 4 initiatives have been proposed for region-wide FTA: ASEAN+3 (East Asia FTA), ASEAN+6 (CEPEA), ASEAN++ (RCEP), Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) u The US has become active in region-wide FTA: Trans. Pacific Partnership (TPP) 18
FTAs in East Asia (December 2011) Bangkok Treaty (1976) AFTA (1992) Singapore-NZ (2001) Japan-Singapore (2002) Thailand-NZ (2005) Singapore-India (2005) Korea-Singapore (2006) Japan-Malaysia (2006) Japan-Brunei (2008) China-NZ (2008) Taiwan-Nicaragua (2008) Singapore-Peru (2009) Singapore-Australia (2003) Singapore-EFTA (2003) Singapore-US (2004) Korea-Chile (2004) China-Hong Kong (2004) China-Macao (2004) Taiwan-Panama (2004) Singapore-Jordan (2004) Japan-Mexico (2005) China-ASEAN (2005) Thailand-Australia (2005) Korea-EFTA (2006) China-Chile (2006) Korea-ASEAN (2006) Singapore-Panama (2006) Japan-Chile (2007) Japan-Thailand (2007) China-Pakistan (2007) Malaysia-Pakistan (2007) Japan-Philippines (2008) Japan-ASEAN (2008) Japan-Indonesia (2008) China-Singapore (2009) Japan-Switzerland (2009) Japan-Vietnam (2009) India-ASEAN (2010) ASEAN-Australia-NZ (2010) China-Peru (2010) China-Taiwan (2010) Korea-EU (2011) Japan-India (2011) China-Consta Rica (2011) Korea-Peru (2011) 19
7 FTAAP: Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific Efforts under various frameworks ASEAN+3(EAFTA) (ASEAN+JP, CH, KR, IND, AUS, NZ) TPP Current members Vietnam Viet Nam Malaysia TPP Australia Peru (ASEAN + JP, CH, KR) ASEAN+6(CEPEA) RCEP Establishment of 3 working groups (for trade in goods, services and investment) in 2012 FTAAP (APEC) Japan-China-Korea Russia China Korea Japan CH. Taipei Hong. Kong Thailand Brunei Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Singapore Canada US Mexico Peru Indonesia PNG Launch of negotiations in 2012 Australia New Zealand Chile 20 (Source: METI, Japan)
Motives behind FTAs in East Asia u Increase market access through trade and FDI u Rapid expansion of FTAs in the world u Promote domestic reform u Rivalry between East Asian countries Motives behind region-wide FTAs in East Asia u Financial crisis in 1997 -98 u Global financial crisis in 2008 u Overcome Spaghetti bowl effect u Establish region-wide single production base and 21 unified market
Rapidly Increasing FTAs in the World 22
Expected Impacts of FTAs Trade and FDI expansion between and among FTA members u Economic growth u Economic Obstacles to FTAs u Opposition from non-competitive sectors 23
IV. Japan’s New Economic Strategy in Asia-Pacific Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) including trade and FDI liberalization, facilitation, economic cooperation u Export infrastructure such as transportation system and water supply system including hard and soft infrastructure u Export agricultural products u Attracting foreign direct investment inflows and high skilled personnel u Attracting foreign tourists u etc. u 24
Japan’s FTAs (EPAs): June 2012 Implemented Singapore November 2002 Mexico April 2005 Malaysia July 2006 Chile September 2007 Thailand November 2007 Indonesia July 2008 Brunei July 2008 Philippines December 2008 ASEAN December 2008 Switzerland September 2009 Vietnam October 2009 India August 2011 Peru March 2012 Share in Japan's trade 18. 7% (2010) Under negotiation Korea GCC Australia Mongolia Under study ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 China, Japan, Korea EU TPP Canada Colombia 20. 0% 25
Motives u Expand export market for Japanese firms u Improve investment environment for Japanese firms u Obtain energy and natural resources u Promote structural reform in Japan u Improve and establish good relationship u Provide economic assistance to developing countries Opposition u Agriculture, fishery 26
Impacts of FTAs on GDP (%): Simulation Results Japan China Korea Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Other Southeast Asia Australia New Nealand India Hong Kong Taiwan NAFTA EU 15 Rest of the World ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 FTA 0. 44 0. 54 4. 72 4. 84 3. 55 3. 71 3. 94 4. 14 8. 62 9 6. 28 6. 52 4. 24 4. 42 7. 02 7. 32 9. 67 9. 92 2. 91 2. 95 -0. 09 1. 35 -0. 06 1. 87 -0. 1 3. 45 0 -0. 01 -0. 08 -0. 01 -0. 06 -0. 08 5. 67 1. 93 1. 68 5. 89 2. 05 2. 11 27
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Japan-EU EPA Developments u Scoping exercise for Japan-EU EPA began in May 2011 and ended in May 2012 u Waiting for the negotiations to begin Expected benefits u Strengthen economic and non-economic relations u Expand exports and FDI not only bilaterally but with other countries, contributing to economic growth: EU GDP to increase 0. 14 percent, Japan’s GDP 0. 31 percent (Copenhagen Economics, 2009) u Contribute to rule-making in the global economic system 29
Japan’s Trading Partners: 2010 (%) China 21% Others 25% Malaysia 3% Hong Kong 3% US 13% Saudi Arabia 3% Indonesia 3% Thailand Taiwan 4% 5% Australia 4% Korea 6% EU 10% 30
Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment Destinations: 2011 (%) 31
Japan’s Position u Eager to start negotiations with an interest in strengthening economic relations and overcoming disadvantageous position in the EU market vis-à-vis Korean firms: EU tariffs--cars (10%), flat screen TVs (14%), microwave ovens (5%) etc. EU position u Somewhat hesitant in starting negotiations immediately (in response to Japan’s inability to join TPP negotiations? ) u Eager to open Japan’s government procurement market and reduce non-tariff measures, in order to expand trade and FDI 32
V. Concluding Remarks u u u Faced with many difficult challenges, Japan has to open up its economy and carry out structural reforms, in order to achieve economic growth or to maintain high living standard, to contribute to economic growth in Asia-Pacific and in the world. WTO liberalization being stalled, free trade agreements (FTAs) are second-best solution for promotion of trade and FDI Japan can gain a lot from FTAs not only in East Asia but also with countries in other parts of the world such as the US, the EU, and Latin American countries 33
u u u Japan should play active roles in establishing regionwide FTAs: RCEP, TPP by liberalizing its market Then expand these FTAs by merging with other FTAs, leading to global trade liberalization FTAs face opposition from non-competitive sectors For Japan, trade liberalization in agriculture faces strong opposition Various measures including gradual phase-in liberalization, and temporary assistance to negatively affected workers can moderate the negative impacts during the process of transition Need strong political leadership to promote FTAs 34