ITU Workshop New generation Networks what when and

ITU Workshop “New generation Networks; what, when and how” Geneva 9 -10 July 2003 “ICT and NGN: innovation for a better quality of life” Claudio Carrelli Director Eurescom NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 1

Content • • • Technology and Networks The social impact The “digital” world Standards and cooperation Final conclusions NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 2

Three points to remember what went “good” • The boom of “personal communication” • The triumph of “networking” • The new concept of “always on” NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 3

And three to remember what went “wrong” • The bubble “burst” • The irrational fever of “merges and acquisitions” • The excessive predominance of “finance” rather than focus on service innovation NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 4

Some initial suggestions • Do not try to “re-create the past” • Concentrate on the opportunities of “mobile” “broadband” and “multimedia” • Target on innovation and flexibility • Identify and exploit new services for “home environment” and “infomobility” • Grasp the opportunity of cooperation even in a competitive environment NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 5

Balancing technology and users needs ICT for a better quality of life NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 6

Laser technology • Invented in the seventies • Immediately named as a “solution looking for a problem” • Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 7

The “Tron House” • The first “intelligent house” • Completed in in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan) • Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature” and “computers” • A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the “TRON Architecture” • Dismantled in '94 NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 8

The “home” environment • Will ICT improve our quality of life? • Yes, it will, if we do not just concentrate on technology NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 9

The relevance of “quality of life!” • • • The first TV remote control in 1950 Called “Lazy bones” and wireline. . Flashmatic, . . Spacecommand. . 1956 Its percentage on price exceeded 30% How much would you save today to live without it? NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 10

Two main comments on future developments and key to success NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 11

1. Local first, networked follows • • • Stereo records and stereo broadcast Movies and TV Photo and telephoto DVD. . . HDTV Multimedia terminal equipment, and then broadband communication • Intelligent housewares …. networked home NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 12

2. Simplicity will win • The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one: • Telephone over telegraph • IP and internet vs ISDN • SMS vs ISDN D-channel • i-mode vs WAP • Blue-tooth vs DECT • …. and what about Wi-Fi? NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 13

Network evolution NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 14

The basic pillars of telecom networks • • Switching systems (nodes) Transmission systems (links) Access network Terminal equipment NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 15

The temple of telecommunications networks NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 16

The “Easy Side” of the Problem • Trunk network • • • High capacity Flexible multiplexing Variable bandwidth • Customer premises equipment • • Advanced multimedia technology High bandwidth, bursty traffic requirements NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 17

… And the More Challenging Issues • Access network Copper wire optical fibre/coax wireless technology • Switching technology synchronous/asynchronous integrated/overlaid NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 18

The temple of telecommunications networks NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 19

The mandatory school (I) • PCM technology • Digital transmission • Digital hierarchy NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 20

The mandatory school (II) • SPC exchanges • Digital switching • Common channel signalling NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 21

The mandatory school (III) • Intelligent networks • ISDN • Mobile services NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 22

And then, . . . what new life? NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 23

The answer is not so easy! • . . ”total “digitalization”, telecom liberalization, internet, XDSL, DWDM on optical fibre, Wi. Fi, ultra-wide band, SW radio, … • The impact of disruptive elements has radically altered the old approach mainly oriented to follow a predetermined path NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 24

The evolving role of. . . Telcos • • Voltage carriers (telegraph) Frequency carriers (telephony) Bit carriers (digital era) Information networking (middleware platforms) • Domotics, infomobility and infotainement (new services at home and on the road) NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 25

We live in a digital world • All type of information, no matter if voice, data, text, music, video, image, or other, may be reduced to a “handful of bits” • And these bits can be: • processed • transmitted or • stored NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 26

The big competition in the ICT game • • Storage capacity Processing power Transmission capacity Is it cheaper a stored bit, a processed bit or a travelling bit? • How will its cost vary with time? NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 27

A weaving of laws • • Moore’s law Gilder’s law Metcalf’s law Telecosm’s law Amdahl’s law Conduits and content law …. . And what new role for IP? NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 28

What impact on network architecture? • A well known rule of thumb: • Transmission is cheap: circuit switching • Processing is cheap: packet switching NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 29

The Paradox of the “best network” • Intelligent networks have been continuously upgraded and optimized for voice services • But…today's optimization might be. . tomorrow's bottleneck • Should a network be “intelligent” or “stupid”? • The best network just moves bits • But …. . the best network is the hardest one to make money running NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 30

What future: fix or mobile? A provocative view • The future will be more and more in the fixed network, …. . • …but the growing wireless access will give us the impression to be mobile NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 31

C = Capacity [kbit/s] P = Signal Power W = Bandwidth N 0 = Noise NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 32

The myth of Broadband NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 33

A provocative view • • • Broadband already exists It is spread everywhere Consumers like it It is very cheap …. it is Television!! …. but it is mainly broadcast! NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 34

The illusion of the value of the Mbyte NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 35

What pricing strategy? • Eyes and networks use different measuring sticks. • It is important to grasp this difference if we want to make money. • The cost of a service is related to the network complexity needed to deliver it, • . . . but its price must be related to the value human eyes put on it. NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 36

Rethinking R&D • R&D is a major driver for value • The relevance to develop “options” We must crack a lot of rock to find a diamond • Collaborative R&D through networking will become critical, particularly due to lack of human and financial resources NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 37

EURESCOM A Virtual Company for Collaborative R&D www. eurescom. de NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 38

EURESCOM Providing Network Solutions • Access Networks - Increasing the bandwidth • In House Networks - Supporting the Customer • Core Networks - Optimising the infrastructure • New Aspects - new concepts (e. g. always on) NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 39

The relevance of access • The frontier of inequality will be no more between: • rich and poor • capital and human resources • cities and rural areas • But, …. …between who • “has” and who “has not” access to the net UNO Dev. report NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 40

Four messages • Do not be dogmatic: deploy present technology and monitor its evolution!! • Avoid the “network-centric” approach and concentrate on “human centredness” • ICT technologies will enable a variety of applications for a better quality of life • Be proactive on future development Broadband mobile revolutions are ready to take off. . NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 41

Thank you for your attention Enjoy your Workshop! NGN Workshop, Geneva, 9 -10 2003 42