IT Outlook 2004 Chapter 2: Globalisation of the ICT sector Section on International Sourcing OECD-Eurostat Expert Meeting on Trade-in. Services Statistics OECD April 28 2004 Graham Vickery and Desirée van Welsum 1
International Sourcing – Terminology The international sourcing of IT and ICTenabled services (often referred to as ‘offshoring’) is part of the globalisation of the ICT sector, and also of other services sectors n ‘Offshoring’ includes: n – Insourcing: to foreign affiliates – Outsourcing: activities are contracted out to independent parties abroad n But: (in- and) outsourcing can also take place domestically 2
Illustration Onshoring, Offshoring, insourcing and outsourcing IT and business process services Approximate value of worldwide activity in 2001, USD 3
But: no official statistics on international services sourcing Look at: n Exports of services Ø if service activities are sourced internationally, the country receiving the international in- and/or outsourcing must export services back to the country of origin Employment data n Input-output tables n Trade in intermediates n 4
Growth of exports of other business services and computer and information services 5
This shows n Some of the countries often mentioned in the outsourcing debate have experienced strong export growth (e. g. India) n But, the exports of some of these countries are growing from a low base: 6
Share of reported total exports of other business services and computer and information services, 1995, 2002 (IMF Bo. P data) 7
However: n There are discrepancies in the reported data n A challenge for statisticians 8
Discrepancies: total services Difference in exports reported by India and imports reported by importers (millions USD) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 9111 11691 14509 19175 20886 24859 US (1) 1224 1541 1520 1896 1810 1667 EU 2241 2425 2518 2268 2418 2275 702 803 958 865 1030 1007 455 423 357 326 Total services Exports to all countries reported by India Imports from India reported by of which: UK Japan Canada 117 118 102 107 155 Sum of reported imports 3582 4084 4595 4694 4740 4268 Discrepancy 5529 7607 9914 14481 16146 20591 61 65 68 76 77 83 i. e. Percentage of Indian exports unaccounted for by the above countries 9
Discrepancies: commercial services (excl. travel and transport) Difference in exports reported by India and imports reported by importers (millions USD) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 3852 6096 8892 13018 15126 18630 US 422 614 568 832 803 670 EU 722 800 905 689 957 800 232 237 201 180 All commercial services, excl. travel and transport Exports to all countries reported by India Imports from India reported by of which: UK Japan Canada 26 27 16 24 33 Sum of reported imports 1170 1441 1721 1782 1994 1650 Discrepancy 2682 4655 7170 11235 13131 16980 70 76 81 86 87 91 10 i. e. Percentage of Indian exports unaccounted for by the above countries
Discrepancies: computer and information services Difference in exports reported by India and imports reported by importers (millions USD) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 6341 7556 9600 US 135 104 80 EU 114 336 177 13 45 37 Sum of reported imports 262 485 294 Discrepancy in total 6079 7071 9306 96 94 97 Computer and information services Exports to all countries reported by India Imports from India reported by of which: UK Japan Canada i. e. Percentage of Indian exports unaccounted for by the above countries 11
Possible explanations n n n Reporting difficulties (definition of services and modes of delivery) Lags in implementation of BPM 5 methodology Different data collection methods (difference between imports and exports surveys) and possibly recording criteria Differences in treatment of certain categories (e. g. movement of temporary workers) Operations of global firms 12
Questions n How can the discrepancies be explained? n Is the list of possible explanations exhaustive or are there other plausible explanations? n What can be done to improve the situation – In the short term? – In the long term? 13
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