Скачать презентацию Israel from the perspective of foreign investors Скачать презентацию Israel from the perspective of foreign investors

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Israel from the perspective of foreign investors Israel from the perspective of foreign investors

Are the foreign investors here? Ø Saban-Apax-Arkin Ø Cerberus Ø Orascom Institutional Investors Ø Are the foreign investors here? Ø Saban-Apax-Arkin Ø Cerberus Ø Orascom Institutional Investors Ø Capital Group Ø Templeton Ø Fidelity Ø Boston Company Ø Pioneer Investment management Ø T Rowe Price Ø Schroders page 2

Top down drivers of emerging markets Level YTD (%) Oil (WTI) US$/b 60. 9 Top down drivers of emerging markets Level YTD (%) Oil (WTI) US$/b 60. 9 40. 0 Gold spot price $/oz 507 15. 5 Copper 3 M fwd $/mt 4, 356 38. 3 EM $ Bond Yield 5. 4 5. 3 EM Local Bond Yield 6. 7 -3. 0 EMBI+ Spread (bp) 233 -32. 9 EM Volatility 13. 9 30. 1 VIX 10. 5 -21. 1 $/ Euro 1. 20 -11. 3 Yen/ $ 117 -12. 4 $/ Asia (MSCI) 98 -1. 1 $/ EMEA (MSCI) 81 -7. 2 $/ Lat. Am (MSCI) 79 11. 5 $/ EM Currency 91 -0. 2 Commodities Yields Risks Currency movements vs the US$ Fund Flows as a % of assets under management Equity Fund Flows into GEMs - Bond Fund Flows into GEMs - page 3 9. 8% 17. 0%

Flow of funds into emerging markets in 2005 (1) page 4 Flow of funds into emerging markets in 2005 (1) page 4

Flow of funds into emerging markets in 2005 (2) – 10% of flows into Flow of funds into emerging markets in 2005 (2) – 10% of flows into equity funds allocated to emerging markets in 2005 – 17% of flows into bond funds allocated to emerging markets page 5

Emerging vs developed market performance Israel vs emerging markets Emerging market bond yields page Emerging vs developed market performance Israel vs emerging markets Emerging market bond yields page 6

Valuations in emerging markets still lower, though gap closing page 7 Valuations in emerging markets still lower, though gap closing page 7

Israel in a global context PE Country EPS Growth PBV ROE Div Yld 06 Israel in a global context PE Country EPS Growth PBV ROE Div Yld 06 (x) 05 $(%) 06 $(%) 05 (x) 06 (x) 05 $(%) 06 (x) China 11 10 28% 7% 2. 4 2. 1 24% 22% 4. 3% India 16 14 20% 13% 3. 6 3. 0 25% 24% 1. 8% Indonesia 12 9 4% 33% 3. 0 2. 5 26% 30% 4. 0% Korea 13 11 -19% 16% 2. 1 1. 8 18% 1. 3% Malaysia 15 14 -6% 13% 2. 2 2. 1 15% 16% 3. 8% Taiwan 15 13 -8% 17% 2. 7 2. 4 18% 19% 3. 7% Thailand 11 10 1% 4% 2. 1 1. 9 21% 20% 4. 7% Hungary 10 11 21% -7% 2. 6 2. 1 28% 22% 3. 5% Israel 21 17 12% 27% 3. 5 2. 9 18% 19% 4. 8% Poland 11 9 35% 21% 1. 8 1. 5 18% 4. 2% Russia 8 11 46% -30% 1. 8 1. 6 26% 16% 2. 1% South Africa 11 11 38% 35% 2. 5 2. 8 23% 28% 3. 3% Turkey 15 12 27% 43% 2. 4 2. 3 15% 19% 1. 4% Brazil 8 7 77% 22% 2. 4 1. 8 35% 30% 3. 4% Chile 24 18 -26% 34% 2. 2 2. 0 10% 12% 0. 3% Mexico 17 14 26% 17% 4. 2 3. 8 26% 27% 0. 5% ASIA 14 12 -2% 15% 2. 5 2. 2 20% 2. 8% EMEA 12 12 34% 17% 2. 4 22% 2. 6% LATAM 13 10 50% 21% 2. 9 2. 5 30% 27% 2. 1% EM 13 11 18% 17% 2. 6 2. 3 22% 2. 6% US 16. 4 15. 3 15 8 2. 8 17 Japan page 8 05 (x) 15. 5 17. 4 18 16 1. 6 10 Europe 13. 9 13. 0 18 13 2. 3 17

Performance of MSCI Israel equity market in global context page 9 Performance of MSCI Israel equity market in global context page 9

Deutsche Bank’s recommended weighting versus benchmark index page 10 Foreign investors weighting versus benchmark Deutsche Bank’s recommended weighting versus benchmark index page 10 Foreign investors weighting versus benchmark index

Currency value as % of 2005 PPP fair value page 11 Currency value as % of 2005 PPP fair value page 11

Country and currency volatility 60 Day annualized Vol Beta to emerging markets 5 YR Country and currency volatility 60 Day annualized Vol Beta to emerging markets 5 YR YTD Currncy 5 YR YTD Vol Avg chg (%) Israel 11. 0 24. 9 -25. 2 5. 0 5. 9 12. 3 ASIA 14. 4 19. 6 1. 7 3. 6 4. 2 -26. 5 EMEA 18. 4 17. 5 43. 5 8. 0 11. 4 -8. 0 LATAM 22. 3 20. 9 51. 4 9. 8 11. 3 13. 3 EM 13. 9 15. 0 30. 1 6. 0 7. 5 -9. 7 US 11. 1 17. 5 13. 0 nm nm nm Japan 17. 5 21. 3 8. 9 6. 8 9. 4 -26. 1 Europe 11. 2 17. 4 7. 3 8. 6 10. 1 7. 4 If we are not EM, what are we? page 12 1 Y Beta 5 YR Equity Current Avg Israel 0. 4 0. 7 Turkey 1. 3 Argentina 1. 3 0. 8 Brazil 1. 5 1. 2 Chile 0. 7 0. 6 Mexico 1. 0 0. 8 ASIA 0. 9 1. 1 EMEA 1. 1 0. 8 LATAM 1. 3 0. 9 EM 1. 0

Key Deutsche Bank global forecasts Current level 2006 F US inflation (core PCE) % Key Deutsche Bank global forecasts Current level 2006 F US inflation (core PCE) % 1. 8% 2. 0% Fed Funds rate (YE) % 4. 3% 5. 0% US real GDP growth % 3. 7% 4. 0% 8. 4% 61 50 4, 372 2, 976 524 500 14, 165 12, 566 $/ EUR end period 1. 19 1. 25 Yen/ $ end period 120 114 China real GDP growth % WTI US$/b end period Copper 3 M fwd $/mt end period Gold price US$/oz end period Nickel US$/mt page 13

Deutsche Bank’s Israel forecasts page 14 Deutsche Bank’s Israel forecasts page 14

What can we do next? ü Move to nominal reporting ü Increase liquidity û What can we do next? ü Move to nominal reporting ü Increase liquidity û Easy access to stock borrowing û Standardize OTC documentation û Netting û Free float page 15