ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional

ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications Abdul Basit Associate Research Fellow A(RF) International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 18 February 2015

Overview • What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)? i. iii. iv. v. • Background. . Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS. Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks. No. of Foreign Fighters. Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters. ISIS Influence in South Asia: i. Trends in South Asia ii. Why South Asia? iii. Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups. iv. ISIS Support Base in India. v. ISIS Cell in Af-Pak. vi. ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia. vii. Terrorism Consortium in South Asia. viii. 3 Models of Jihad in South Asia. ix. AQIS vs ISIS. x. What does it all mean for South Asia? :

Major Questions • Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of the US-led anti ISIS coalition? • Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it? • What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular? • How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS Growing Influence? • What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular? :

What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (Dawlat al-ʿIrāq al-ʾIslāmiyyah, IS) ? • The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group. • New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist iconography. • Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a state. • Financially self-sufficient • Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including females. • A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad.

Background :

Groups Allied with ISIS Indonesia Libya • • Ansar Al-Shariah Islamic Youth Shura Council Nigeria Boko Haram Abu Bakar Bashir Afghanistan Salafai Taliban Pakistan Islamic State • Jandullah • Shahidulah Shahid Group • Tehrik-e-Khilafat • Jamia Hafsa Students Uzbekistan Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) Egypt Philippines Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) • Gamah Islamiyah • Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis

Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks • Over 15, 000 foreign fighters from 80 countries. • Second largest congregation of foreign fighters since the Afghan Jihad (1979 -88). • Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan (2, 089), Saudi Arabia (1, 016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon (890), and Libya (556). • The number of fighters from Western Europe is around 1, 937, 17 percent of foreign fighters population. • The most important regions foreign fighter recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Source: http: //soufangroup. com/wpcontent/uploads/2014/10/Foreign-fighters-flow-to-Syria. jpg

No. of Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks

Latest Updates of ISIS Foreign Fighters • The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the peak 80 -100 per day to a low of 10 -15. • On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb Majeed, who returned to India revealed he cleaned toilets for ISIS. • “ On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraq’s Fallujah province for refusing to accept jihad marriage. ” (Source: http: //www. teaparty. org/isis-executes-150 -womengirls-pregnant-refusing-become-sex-slaves-marry-jihadists 73127/) • • On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying to flee Syria. “I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq. ” Source: http: //english. alarabiya. net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter. html

Trends in South Asia • The national governments downplay the threat while certain pressure/ groups and vested interests overexaggerate threat. • The trend varies across South Asia countries. • In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and Panjpiri pockets of militant groups. • In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized individuals and group differential behavior. • In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the Bangladeshi diaspora community have joined ISIS ranks. Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in the country. Source: http: //www. dawn. com/news/1143943 Source: http: //articles. economictimes. indiatimes. com/2014 -10 -14/news/55014486_1_jammu-and-kashmirisis-omar-abdullah

No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia : Source: http: //www. slideshare. net/Rahul. Bhonsle/estimate-south-asian-fighters-insyria-and-iraq

Why South Asia? • Ideological Factor: (Black Flags of Khurasan) • Social Factor: Conducive environment for incubation of Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces) and Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist propaganda). • Political Factor: Al-Qaeda’s Power-base.

Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups • Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi Groups and TTP Core) • Jumping ISIS Bandwagon: (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and Shahidullah Shahid Group) • Fence-sitting Behaviour: (Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamat-ul. Ahrar etc. )

ISIS Support Base in India • • Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor (Social Media Operative) and Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and later escaped No groups-level presence • Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS • The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and pro. ISIS banners • For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform • “I’m a soldier, I have no regrets” Source: http: //timesofindiatimes. com/india/Im-a-soldier-Ihave-no-regrets-says-ISIS-Twitter-handler-Mehdi-Masroor. Biswas/articleshow/45567376. cms “I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq. ” Source: http: //english. alarabiya. net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter. html

ISIS Cell in Af-Pak SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI) Khalid Mansour (Hangu, KP) Dawlat (Kurram Agency) Sa’ad al. Emarati (Sa’ad Abi Waqas – Logar province, Afghanistan) Muhsin (Kunar province, Afghanistan) Gul Zamam (Khyber Agency) Omar Mansour (Masjid Ahmar) Saeed Khan (Orakzai Agency) Mufti Hassan (Peshawar) Obeidaullah Peshawari (Tawhid wal Jihad Peshawar) Jawad (Abtalul. Islam) Talha (Murat) http: //commons. wikimedia. org/wiki/File: Map_showing_NWFP_and_FATA.

ISIS Four-pronged Strategy in South Asia

Terrorism Consortium in South Asia

3 -Models of Jihadi in South Asia ISIS-Caliphate

AQIS vs ISIS • Consolidate existing network, then expand • Exploit Brand • Expand Network • Contain ISIS • Support Affiliates • Exploit Local Issues • Look for new recruits & affiliates • Indoctrinate through Propaganda

What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia? • Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape. • Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups. • New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology. • Cyber radicalization. • Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.

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