ISI SATELLITE MEETING ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Maputo, Mozambique 13 -14 August 2009 SESSION 4: DETERMINING A MENU OF INDICATORS AND A CORE SET OF DATA Selecting indicators for monitoring and evaluation of agriculture and rural development in countries with weak statistical capacity based on FAO/WB Sourcebook Presentation by Naman Keita, FAO
THREE PILLARS OF THE GLOBAL STRATEGY 1. MENU OF INDICATORS AND SET OF CORE DATA 2. INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS INTO NATIONAL STATISTICS SYSTEM 3. AGREED SUITE OF METHODOLOGIES FOR INTEGRATION
INDICATORS AND DATA/STATISTICS IN THE GLOBAL STRATEGY • An indicator provides a broad signal of change, direction, or state of being. • The statistics are the numbers that represent each indicator for a point in time, scope, and coverage • The data items are those needed to provide the statistics describing each indicator. • The data include the crop area, yield entering into the estimate of production of each crop, livestock numbers for meat production, etc.
FAO/WB SOURCEBOOK FOCUSES ON: q HOW TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE (MEASURE) THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES IN COUNTRIES WITH WEAK STATISTICAL CAPACITY q DEFINE A FRAMEWORK OF STANDARDISED APPROACHES FOR SELECTING INDICATORS q DEFINE A MENU OF 86 INDICATORS AND A LIST OF 19 PRIORITY INDICATORS FOR MONITORING AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES AT PROJECT, NATIONAL, REGIONAL GLOBAL LEVELS q DATA REQUIREMENT, SOURCES AND STATISTICAL CAPACITY
LOGFRAME AND FREQUENCY OF MONITORING VARIOUS INDICATORS Impact Indicators (Ultimate goal) Outcome Indicators (behavioral change) Output Indicators (Goods and Services) Input Indicators (Material, financial, human) Medium to Long Run (maybe 5 years by the time surveys are carried out) Medium Term - Ideally annually – maybe every 2 – 3 years Short – Medium Term - Ideally more than once a year or annually Short Term - Ideally every three months or annually Outcome and impact: RESULT INDICATORS
SELECTION OF INDICATORS What makes a Good Indicator S SPECIFIC and SENSITIVE to the changes induced as a result of actions taken M MEASURABLE progress can be shown and is not easily manipulated A ATTAINABLE and APPLICABLE to the policy action taken R RELEVANT to the areas in question T TIME BOUND and TRACKABLE by showing changes over time MAIN CRITERIA USED TO SELECT 19 PRIORITY INDICATORS: q RELEVANCE (FOR SUB SECTORS ONLY ONE WAS SELECTED) q COMPARABILITY q AVAILABILITY (BASED ON COUNTRY STUDIES AND VALIDATIONS)
NINETEEN PRIORITY INDICATORS (SELECTED FROM MENU OF 86) 1 Public spending on agriculture as a % of GDP from agriculture sector 11 % of the rural population using financial services of formal banking institutions 2 Public spending on agricultural input subsidies as a percentage of total public spending on agriculture 12 Public investment in agricultural research as a % of GDP from agriculture sector 3 Prevalence (%) of underweight children under five years of age in rural areas 13 Irrigated land as a % of crop land 4 Food production index 14 % change in sales/ turnovers of agroenterprises 5 % annual growth in agricultural value added 15 % of farmers who are members of producer organizations 6 Rural poor as a proportion of total poor population 16 Agricultural withdrawal as % of total freshwater withdrawal 7 % change in yields of major crops of the country 17 Proportion (%) of land area formally established as protected area 8 % annual growth in value added in the livestock sub-sector 18 % change in soil loss from watersheds 9 Capture fish production as % of existing stock ( or a rating of state of major capture fish stocks relevant to exports and local food) REPLACED BY 19 % land area for which there exists a legally recognized form of land tenure % change in capture and aquaculture fish production used for human food 10 Proportion of land area covered by forest (%)
INDICATORS, DATA REQUIREMENTS, DATA SOURCES (EXAMPLE 6 SECTOR WIDE INDICATORS) data requirements Data Sources Indicator Sector Wide indicators for agriculture and rural development Public spending on agriculture, subsidies, and infrastructure Government budget allocations, and spending related to agriculture. Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries Ministry of Finance, National Accounts, Planning commissions, Donor reports Public spending on rural infrastructure including health and education Government budget allocations, and spending related rural areas Ministry of Finance, National Accounts, Planning commissions, Donor reports Percent of rural children that are underweight compared to national level Anthropometric data Anthropometric Surveys Food production index, food security Area, production and yield for food crops, livestock numbers and production of meat, milk, eggs, fish captured and cultured, and other food products, nonfood use of food products, food imports and exports Agricultural Census, surveys of agricultural enterprises, processors, fish landings, administrative data such as imports, exports. Food Balances and Household consumption surveys GDP growth from Agriculture value added. Estimates of total production and value for all commodities produced in the country; including that from small holders/household plots minus estimates of the cost of inputs such as seed, feed, energy, fertilizer, labor, etc. Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries Censuses and surveys agricultural enterprises, farm and rural households, administrative and processor. data Rural poor as a percent of total poor population Household income and consumption estimates for national poverty lines. Purchasing Power Parities for comparisons across countries Household Surveys. International Comparison Program for comparisons across countries
CORE SET OF DATA RECOMMENDED IN THE GLOBAL STRATEGY
MAIN DATA SOURCES Surveys vs. non-formal appraisal methods Direct measurement Household budget survey Fish landing Surveys Censuses Questionnaire (quantitative) P. P. A Case study Sentinel site surveillance Questionnaire (Qualitative) CWIQ LSMS Structured Purposive Quota interview Small prob. selection Beneficiary sampling sample Participant observation assessment Open meetings Conversations Windscreen survey Large prob. sample Subjective assessments Community Surveys Census
KEY FEATURES OF DIFFERENT SURVEYS AND INDICATIVE COST 1 Population census 2 Sample size Duration 3 4 Visits to household 5 Questionnaire size Cost ($m) Full coverage 3 -6 months 1 4 -8 15 -25 20 000 -50 000 1 -1. 5 years 2 -4 8 -12 5 -10 LSMS/integrated survey 5 000 -10 000 1 -1. 5 years 2 40+ 1 -2 Household budget survey 4 000 -10 000 1 -1. 5 years 15 -25 15 -20 1 -2 100 -500 4 -6 months 1 4 -6 0. 2 -0. 4 10 000 -15 000 2 -3 months 1 8 0. 2 -0. 4 Focus group interviews 40 -50 2 -3 months 1 -3 - 0. 05 -0. 1 Windscreen survey 10 -20 2 -3 weeks 0 0. 01 Agricultural census/survey Community survey Service delivery survey (CWIQ)
A TEN YEAR CYCLE OF DATA COLLECTION ACTIVITIES Instruments and Sources YEAR 1 1 Census of agriculture 2 Periodic agricultural production survey 3 Farm management survey 4 Rural household income—expenditure survey 5 Food consumption survey 6 Survey of post—harvest losses 7 Survey of agric. service establishments S Rural labour force survey 9 Soil survey 10 Livestock census 1! Special agricultural censuses and surveys 12 Census of population and housing 13 Demographic survey 14 Census of industrial establishments 15 Survey of rural household industries 16 Urban household income—expenditure survey 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CONCLUDING REMARKS 1. IMPORTANCE OF LINKING DATA USERS AND PRODUCERS FOR: - relevance - avoiding duplication FAO/WB STUDY FOUND THAT M&E AND STATISTICS SYSTEMS ARE DISCONNECTED IN MOST OF THE 5 PILOT COUNTRIES 2. CHALLENGES OF DECENTRALISATION AND CORRESPONDING DATA REQUIREMENT AND NEED FOR METHOGOLOGICAL RESPONSES (Small area estimation, better use of administrative data etc. . ) 3. SELECTION OF INDICATORS: DOES THE STATISTICS SYSTEM HAS THE CAPACITY? NEED FOR INTEGRATED STATISTICAL PROGRAMME WITH CORRESPONDING STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING COMPONENT 4. NINETEEN PRIORITY INDICATORS OF FAO/WB SOURCEBOOK PROPOSED AS STARTING POINT FOR MENU OF INDICATORS IN GLOBAL STRATEGY
THANK YOU OBRIGADO
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