Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable François E

Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable? François E. Cellier Department of Computer Science ETH Zurich Switzerland April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Some Important Questions • Is the envisaged “ 2000 Watt Society” a desirable goal? • Why shouldn’t we be allowed to use more energy? • Isn’t it more important to limit greenhouse gas emissions than energy consumption? • What will it take to keep energy supply at a desirable level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels? • What are the implications of energy deprivation to our society? • Can we stave off famine? • How can Switzerland maximize its chances of getting through the pending world-wide crisis relatively unscathed? • How much time have we got left? April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

“Sankey” Diagram for Switzerland April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Energy Production for Switzerland 1’ 121’ 920 TJ/yr : 365 : 24 : 60 = 35. 576 GW => 35. 576 GW : 7’ 851’ 520 = 4. 5311 k. W/cap April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Energy Production for Switzerland (2) 1’ 383’ 800 TJ/yr : 365 : 24 : 60 = 43. 88 GW => 43. 88 GW : 7’ 851’ 520 = 5. 5887 k. W/cap April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

“Grey” Energy • If I buy a car produced in Japan, Japan spends energy in the construction of my car. This is energy consumed indirectly by me here in Switzerland that isn’t included in the Sankey diagram at all. • This additional energy is called grey energy. • It is estimated that Switzerland consumes an additional 30% in grey energy indirectly. • Hence the true per capita consumption of energy by the Swiss populace is somewhere of the order of 8 k. W. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Calculating our “Fair Share” Switzerland Cuba April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The 2000 Watt Society • If we take the total power currently produced on this globe and divide it by the current total world population, we end up with roughly 2 k. W/cap. • Thus, our “fair share” of the total energy available “entitles” us to a consumption of 2000 W person. • The 2 k. W/cap correspond to the 1. 8 hectares/cap shown on the previous “ecological footprint” graph. • This is how the concept of the 2000 Watt Society came originally about. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Energy Consumption in Switzerland 6 k. W/cap Nuclear Oil => 2 k. W/cap Gas Wood Hydro Other 2009 April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Wood Hydro 2050 Start of Presentation

Living in an Energy-poor World • After the end of fossil fuels and without nuclear power, we shall live in an energy-deprived world. • Under the assumption of constant population density, we may be able to maintain a 2000 Watt Society … barely. • The 2000 Watt Society is not a desired goal to avoid consuming more than our fair share of world energy resources. On the contrary, it is an optimistic forecast of our ability to produce and procure energy after the fossil fuel era has drawn to a close. • When will this happen, and what does it mean? April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Peak Oil [USGS] April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Peak Oil [ASPO] April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier ? Start of Presentation

New Oil Discovery [USGS] • The new discoveries can be predicted quite well. They follow an exponential decay curve. • Integrating this curve over time generates the curve of total previous discoveries, which is an s-shaped curve. This allows to estimate the total amount of oil in the ground. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Hubbert’s Curve • Different oil fields are being produced at different times. • The production of each oil field grows initially, then reaches a peak, and finally decays. • Irrespective of the shape of the individual production curves, the sum of these individual production curves follows invariably a bell-shaped Gaussian distribution. • M. King Hubbert predicted on this basis correctly the peak of oil production in the US without Alaska to occur in 1971. He predicted world oil to peak around 2000. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Peak Oil Prediction • We start out with past data of produced oil. • We integrate this data over time, generating an sshaped curve of total produced oil. • The final value of this curve ought to coincide with the estimated total amount of oil available for production. • The s-shaped curve follows approximately a logistic model: · p = a·p – b·p 2 (p represents total production) • We estimate the unknown parameters a and b of the model by least squares, and obtain a model that can be used to estimate future oil production. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Different Total Oil Predictions (a) Historical data (b) Hubbert extrapolation April 8, 2009 (c) Constant extrapolation (d) Exponential growth © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Different Per Capita Oil Predictions (a) Historical data (b) Hubbert extrapolation April 8, 2009 (c) Constant extrapolation (d) Exponential growth © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The Price of Oil • Prior to Peak Oil, we live in a buyers’ market. Different oil producers compete for customers, and only those will sell their product who offer the lowest prices. Hence the price of crude is dictated by production cost, and oil is consequently cheap. • After Peak Oil, it’s a sellers’ market. Different customers vie for insufficient amounts of available crude. Hence the price of crude is dictated by the ability and willingness of the customers to stay in the rat race, and consequently, oil is expensive. • Very expensive oil is only a few months/years away. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The Price of Oil (2) • The transition to expensive oil started last spring. Suddenly, oil became very expensive. • Meanwhile, the world economy is in the tank. For his reason, the demand for oil is a bit lower, which drove the market back into the pre-Peak Oil mode, and oil became cheap once again. • Nothing fundamental has changed. We are still consuming oil at almost the same rate (the demand shrank by a few percentage points only). • Last year’s oil price hike was not a fluke. Expensive oil is to return, and will do so fairly soon. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Availability vs. Price • As oil became cheaper, many new oil projects were delayed, as these deposits cannot be economically exploited at low energy cost. • For this reason, the supply of oil is currently shrinking faster than it would have to happen. • As oil becomes expensive again, more projects will become economically viable, which will slow down the decay curve a bit. • This is called the oil plateau. We are currently on the plateau. • Soon, oil demand will outstrip supply even at high oil prices. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The Curse of Shrinking EROEI • As oil becomes more scarce, its price will rise. • Consequently, deposits that were previously not economical to produce, suddenly become profitable. • Doesn’t this solve the Peak Oil problem? • Unfortunately, it doesn’t. These deposits were previously not economical to produce … because they cost more money –and energy– to produce. • The EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) measures, how much oil needs to be burned in order to produce one new barrel of oil. • Unfortunately, the EROEI of oil is rapidly shrinking. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The EROEI of Oil [C. Hall] April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

The EROEI of Oil is Shrinking Fast • Tar sands and oil shale were hitherto not profitable to produce, because their EROEI is low (around 5). • Once the EROEI of an energy source falls below 1. 0, it makes little sense to produce it. • If the EROEI of all energy sources falls below a value of about 5, our industrial civilization is doomed [C. Hall]. • The EROEI of oil is shrinking fast. It has already shrunk by approximately a factor of 5 to 10. It is currently somewhere between 10 and 20. These are estimates as exact numbers are unavailable. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

Energy and Economy Diagram [C. Hall] April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Does This Mean? • Due to shrinking EROEI, we need more and more energy to drive our economy. • As we move down the back slope of Hubbert’s curve, energy becomes more expensive, and we need to invest a larger percentage of our generated wealth into the production of energy. • Since we need to feed ourselves, less and less money is available for discretionary spending. • According to Hall’s model, discretionary spending will reach 0 around the year 2050. After that time, we need all of our wealth, just to feed ourselves. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Does This Mean (2)? • By 2050, we are living in a subsistence economy. • The industrial society is essentially over. • However, the resulting subsistence economy is highly inefficient, because there are far too many people living on the planet. • We need huge energy resources just to keep everyone fed. • If the amount available for discretionary spending turns negative, this means that we can no longer feed everyone in spite of our best efforts. • This is when the die-off begins. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Does This Mean (3)? • Hall’s model may actually be a bit conservative, because it doesn’t take into account the uneven distribution of wealth around the globe. • Comparing Asian Americans in California with African Americans in Mississippi, we notice a difference in life expectancy of 15 years. • African Americans in the Southeast die 15 years younger on average simply because of economic conditions. • For this reason, it must be feared that the die-off will start much earlier than 2050 in some regions of the world. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

How Much Oil/Gas Do We Still Have? • Oil reached worldwide its plateau around 2004. • According to our best estimates, oil will stay on the plateau roughly until 2012. • Thereafter, we’ll be on the downward slope of Hubbert’s curve. • The reduction in oil production will be progressive. • It will take very few years, in spite of demand destruction, until demand for the commodity can no longer be met by supply. • At that time, oil will become very expensive, and not everyone will be able to get it. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

How Much Oil/Gas Do We Still Have (2)? • The producer nations will satisfy their own demand first. • Therefore, oil export will shrink faster than oil production. • Nations that rely heavily on oil imports, such as Switzerland, will be in big trouble. • Gas is predicted to peak about 14 years after oil. • Thus, gas will be available for a little while longer. • However, gas is not as easily transportable as oil, and therefore, gas may not be available everywhere. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Does This Mean for Switzerland? • Switzerland is in a relatively comfortable position. • We produce almost none of our electricity from fossil fuels. • Hence I do not expect our grid to disintegrate permanently any time soon. • Brownouts and blackouts may become more common and frequent than they are today, but they will not lead to a complete breakdown of the grid. • Yet, we still import 75% of our overall energy. • Therefore, we will have to learn to live on much less energy than we have available today. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier E. Mearns Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do? • The most cost-effective way of countering energy shortage is through energy savings. • Switzerland should aggressively push for minergy housing. Neighboring regions, such as Vorarlberg, for example, have done so much more effectively than Switzerland in recent years. • Switzerland needs to push for more fuel-efficient lighter vehicles. The weight of the average passenger car in Switzerland has risen in the last 15 years from 1200 kg to 1500 kg (!!) April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do (2)? • Switzerland should invest in infrastructure for a more robust grid, thereby reducing the risk of repeated brownouts and blackouts. • More incentives should be given to let people use electricity during off hours. • A refrigerator or freezer doesn’t need to consume electricity 24/7. It would make sense to install smart sensors between the refrigerators and the wall outlet that sense instability in the grid and temporarily switch off the device whenever the grid becomes more unstable. • The same is true for electric heatpumps. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do (3)? • Switzerland should invest heavily in solar and wind power. • These energy sources are not yet economically competitive, but they make electricity delivery to individual consumers more reliable. • Solar and wind power will not solve our energy problems, not by a long shot. Yet, every additional k. W of power helps. • We’ll need all of what we can get. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do (4)? • Switzerland needs one more generation of nuclear power stations. • Switzerland should aggressively pursue the construction of one new nuclear power station at every one of the five current locations to pick up the load when the licenses expire for the old power stations. • Nuclear power in its current form is not sustainable either. We’ll also run out of uranium. • Yet, new nuclear power stations will take some pressure off the energy situation by buying us more time to transition to sustainability. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do (5)? • Switzerland can’t go it alone. • Switzerland currently imports 40% of its food. • Switzerland cannot feed a population of close to 8 million people from food produced locally. • We rely on food imports beside from energy imports. • As the economic situation deteriorates, our dependence becomes more critical, as we won’t have as many surplus resources to ensure imports. • Durable agreements with Europe are therefore important. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation

What Can Switzerland Do (6)? • Switzerland is in a comfortable position with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. • The reason is that Switzerland uses hardly any coal at all. • For this reason, our CO 2 emissions per k. W of produced (consumed) energy are about half of what other countries emit. • Yet, greenhouse gas emissions are a veritable problem, and Switzerland needs to contribute to its solution, primarily by helping developing nations to invest in cleaner technologies. April 8, 2009 © Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier Start of Presentation